re: The ATL Thread | Offseason Edition

Heres a little write up on some projections for him I found from a Blue Jays site

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FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting slightly different outcomes for Scherzer, with FanGraphs suggesting he will pitch three times as often as he did in 2024. They have him listed at 128 innings, with a 3.97 ERA, 9.41 K/9, 133 strikeouts and a 1.38 HR/9 rate. Baseball Reference also thinks he’ll be just as effective, with a 3.71 ERA, 9.2 K/9 rate and 1.3 HR/9 rate, though they believe he'll do it in fewer innings. According to B-R's projection, they see Scherzer topping out at 97.0 frames with 99 strikeouts. FanGraphs also dug a little deeper, suggesting Scherzer will hold opponents to a .236 Batting Average Against and .285 BABIP.

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Also, I'm personally willing to pay a little more than he is probably worth to have a guy with the encyclopedia of pitching knowledge Max has around my young staff. Not to mention that he is a fiery leader as well.

If we are trying to optimize every cent we spend? Pass. But we are in a window, we should be throwing some change around.

Either way, it is apparent that AA and crew are not going to try to bolster the starting pitching staff in a meaningful way this off-season. Every year for the past few years someone on the staff has gone down for Tommy John surgery, and they have piecemealed together AAA/AAAA pitchers to replace them. They keep doing this year after year, until last year when they got Sale. Of course they then immediately lose Strider, and they are back to where they have been. They piss away Fried to the Yankees, and do not replace him with anyone near his talent level. They are hoping that Anderson can come back like before, or the poor man’s Kenny Powers will emerge as the next great pitcher. Same song and dance, different season.

I get it, water is wet and this is how they operate.The shite just gets old.

FanGraphs projects us with a 55.5% chance to win the East (best %) with a 93-69 record and a 15.2% chance to win the World Series (2nd best % behind Dodgers)

PECOTA projects us with a 44.2% chance to win the East (best %) with a 92-70 record and a 7.3% chance to win the World Series (tied with Orioles for 4th best % behind Rangers, Mets and Dodgers)

We pissed away Fried? That dude pissed away the Braves chances in our “window”. Fried hasn’t done a thing in the post season since 2021. He did nothing in 2022, 2023, or 2024. And yet he wanted a pay increase for disappearing in the only games that actually matter. Maybe he throws a series of no hitters for the Dodgers, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t a major part of the Braves flops.

Here’s Frieds posts season stats the past 3 years:
2022 - 3.1 innings, 8 hits, 4 ER’s.
2023 - 4 innings, 6 hits, 4 BB’s, 3 ER’s
2024 - 2 innings, 8 hits, 5 ER’s

And we are suppose to upset that AA didn’t offer up a Brinks truck for that crap?

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Look at the page you linked again. Look at the WAR of the starters (far right side). Now look at the drop off from the top four to the rest of the group. Now compare the other teams depth using WAR. Then add-in the fact that every year someone in that group goes down with Tommy John surgery.

AAAA/AAA pitching is not the key to success. That is what the Braves have beyond the first four. When they inevitably lose one of the first four it gets worse, like we have seen in the past.

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I'm not sure what it is you're looking at or what point you're trying to make, but no one, not even the Dodgers, has much in the way of great starting pitching depth beyond the first 5 guys. The Dodgers sixth guy on that list is Tony Gonsolin with a 0.9 WAR projection and our sixth guy is Ian Anderson with a 0.8 WAR projection. The Phillies sixth guy is Andrew Painter at 0.5 WAR.

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This shouldn’t be like playing the lottery. If you pay a guy to be a #1 or #2 SP you should expect #1 or #2 results in the big games.

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That's not how humanity works, because... y'know... humans.


FWIW, I'm cool with our rotation. I think Schwelly takes a huge jump ace-level jump this year. I worry about our lineup going into the tank again, especially if Acuna comes out slow this year like he did in 2022.

I guess I'm not high on our bullpen either, but bullpens as a whole are so fickle that I'm not sure many fanbases have full confidence in who's pitching for them the last 3-4 innings.

FanDuel Sports Network South and FanDuel Sports Network Southeast

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New this year, all regionally available regular season games will air on both FanDuel Sports Network South and FanDuel Sports Network Southeast. The networks also air the Braves LIVE pregame and postgame shows before and after each of its game telecasts.

Braves games through FanDuel Sports Network South and Southeast are widely available on cable, satellite and streaming providers throughout Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee and Central and Western North Carolina. Providers include Xfinity, AT&T U-verse, DirecTV, DirecTV STREAM, Fubo and Spectrum. Visit getmyhometeams.com for options in your zip code. Check local listings for channel numbers. Contact your cable provider for specific package details.

Gray Media Stations


For the 2025 season, Gray Media will simultaneously air 15 regular season games alongside FanDuel Sports Network. The 15 regular season games will include Opening Day on March 27th, the home opener on April 4th and every Friday home game at Truist Park (subject to MLB national TV schedule).

The games will air over-the-air on Peachtree TV Atlanta’s CW (WPCH 17.1) and Peachtree Sports Network (PSN 17.2) in Atlanta and throughout the Southeast through Gray’s network of air stations, including Palmetto Sports & Entertainment Network, the Tennessee Valley Sports & Entertainment Network, and portions of the Gulf Coast Sports & Entertainment Network. A select number of games will air on some of Gray’s ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC, and CW affiliates.

FanDuel Sports Network
All the network’s Braves games and programming will also stream on the FanDuel Sports Network app and at FanDuelSportsNetwork.com. Fans can access Braves content through the app either by authenticating through a pay TV provider or – for the first time ever – by subscribing directly to the app for $19.99 per month.

This option is only available to fans within the Braves broadcast territory.

FanDuel Sports Network will also be available via Prime Video for customers living within each team’s designated geographic area. Launch timing and purchasing specifics will be announced at a later date.

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LINK

20 buck a month is criminal.

I'll hold out hope for the Prime option, but something tells me we'll have to pay an extra cost within the Prime subscription.

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Spending money on a name over production is the exact opposite thing you should do in a window.

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Not saying that should be a team policy, I'm laying out a very specific case here.