re: The ATL Thread - 6/2 - Jorge and Dom in the Lineup

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Relax, Francis. Was just busting his balls for giving up the homer..

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Look up and down Atlanta’s offense. Stars and supreme role players abound: Ronald Acuña Jr., Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, the still-injured Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies, and a breakout season from Dominic Smith. It’s the perfect balance and the perfect equation. Atlanta’s offense is first in RBI, second in runs, and third in OPS. Everyone’s working in perfect harmony, except for third baseman Austin Riley. Amidst this torrential downpour of a lineup, Riley is a drip.

Through 60 games, Riley is hitting .209/.285/.364 with a .649 OPS and an 83 wRC+. Both of those final numbers are career-worsts, and the latter is running away with that label. Riley’s only real contribution is his run production, where he’s tallied eight home runs and 32 RBIs, fourth-most on the team.

To some extent, this is a shock. Back when Atlanta re-emerged with this wave of then-young talent, Riley was a brother in arms. Albies debuted in 2017, Acuna in 2018, Riley in 2019. They were triplets. And they all seemed poised for great heights. In his rookie season, Riley clubbed 18 homers and 49 RBI. Then, in 2021, he hit 33 ding-dongs, 107 RBIs, posted a .136 wRC+, and finished seventh in NL MVP voting. He’d finish sixth the year after, and seventh again in 2023. He was just as talented, just as proven as his brethren. Now, he’s the red-headed stepchild.

One cause for his isolation is Riley’s penchant for striking out. Back in his best days, his K% hovered in the mid-20s. Last season, it reached 28.6%. This season, it’s at 29.8%, qualifying him in the 11th percentile of all hitters. His Whiff% has followed a similar trajectory, increasing from 27.5% in 2024 to 29.5% in 2025 and finally 33% in 2026. Flat-out, he is swinging through far too many pitches. And when he does, he’s making worse contact than ever. His 10.3 Barrel% is his worst since his sophomore season. His Squared-Up%, meanwhile, is in the 23rd percentile of all hitters.

Usually, a change like this is for one of two reasons: One, pitchers found something to exploit; A flaw in the machine. That is the case here. Since 2024, pitchers have thrown more and more offspeed pitches to Riley. He’s gone from seeing them 8.3% of the time in 2024 to 9.8% to 13.7%. The jump from ’24 to ’25 seemed an odd one, considering Riley hit .293 against all offspeed pitches that season, but it paid dividends. In 2025, Riley hit .250 against offspeed pitches, his lowest average since his second and first seasons. More dividends have followed, with Riley hitting just .133 with a .131 expected batting average against all offspeed pitches. He’s whiffing through 43.9% of them and slugging just .233.

In essence, this mostly means Riley can’t touch changeups. He hasn’t seen many forkballs, splitters, or screwballs. Heck, no one’s seeing a screwball anymore. Regardless, the changeup is what’s keeping Riley so dry. He’s hitting .148 against it with a -3 run value while seeing it 11.2% of the time. This is after hitting .235 with a +2 run value on all changeups in 2025. In that sense, it’s a simple problem: Pitchers have adjusted to Riley; He hasn’t adjusted to them.

Yet it’s not just that. Riley is hitting fewer line drives than before, currently rocking a 19.9 LD%, 22nd-lowest in all of baseball. Correspondingly, his 29 line drives are the 24th-fewest in baseball.  Compound that with a 45.2 HardHit%, and it’s clear Riley isn’t making contact as he used to, whether it be against offspeed or any other kind of pitch. Part of that is due to a career-worst 30.1 LA Sweet-Spot%, and a near career-high 19.1 launch angle. The bat isn’t where it needs to be.

All of this might be an aberration if not for Riley’s last three seasons. All his surface-level numbers have dropped ever since 2023. His average has basically dropped year by year. The same goes for his OBP and especially his slugging. That last mark is perhaps the greatest cause for long-term concern. In 2021 and 2023, Riley had the second-best slug amongst all regular third basemen. In 2022, he had the third-best. Now, he’s 11th, and his slugging percentage went from peaking at .531 to a current .364.

It’s all very odd. Riley is 29. His age 27-now seasons should be amongst his best. Due to his now eight seasons of MLB experience and his age, he should be hitting for more power than ever. He’s hitting for less. Injuries might provide some reason why, but they don’t fully explain why he’s become Atlanta’s black sheep.

Riley isn’t the hitter he once was. And he’s not showing any signs that will change. Over his last 30 games, he’s hitting .217. If he’s to change, let it come on someone else’s dime. Atlanta might say the same soon.

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