re: Tennis 2019 -- The Unofficial Non-GS Thread

You guys are super dirty betting challengers. I was thinking it is probably the purest form of guys fighting for their lives, so prime for betting, but you make a good point about potential corruption. That's why Davydenko seemingly being on the take didn't make sense to me. He was already making millions, he didn't need the money to cheat. My theory is the Russian mob just decided to squeeze him a bit.

I enjoyed watching Tennys and Giron the other day.

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You guys are super dirty betting challengers. I was thinking it is probably the purest form of guys fighting for their lives, so prime for betting, but you make a good point about potential corruption.

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Both are absolutely true, which makes it kind of fascinating from a gambling perspective.

As a gambler, I rely on the assumption that both players/teams are trying really really hard to win. I think it's on an assumption that you have to be comfortable making, or you shouldn't be betting on the contest. Which is why I don't bet on the NBA.

And you definitely have that fiercely competitive aspect in the challenger ranks, but tempered by the looming threat of the exact opposite of fierce competition. And unless you are actually the one paying the guy off, how in the world would you ever know which match was getting fixed? You wouldn't.*

It's a seedy underworld, I'll tell ya.

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*though it obviously is a real threat and does occur from time to time, it doesn't occur so much that i actually factor that in as a handicapping consideration. Fwiw.

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You guys are super dirty betting challengers.

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I’m dirty af but I don’t usually bet those.

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Dude, what were the odds?

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Closed at -500 but was -400 for a bit.

Nishi and Medvedev is good quality stuff so far. Looking forward to some Thiem/Rafa.

me too dude

Can’t believe the line judge and ump both missed that ace by Thiem. Luckily the mark saved him.

ETA: For reference, it was at 30-40 when he was serving for the match, so it could have been massive.

Who you got, crack?

Sun 4/28 501 Dominic Thiem -280
10:00AM 502 Daniil Medvedev +255

I'm not trying to convince anyone, because I could be way off. Thiem could steamroll him like 6-2, 6-1 and it wouldn't surprise anyone. But I'm going with my gut here... since I usually don't and I end up missing out.

I feel like Thiem didn't beat the real Nadal today. I saw way too many short rally balls from Rafa landing in the service box and sitting up high for DT to crush. And I don't know if unforced errors are tracked in non-majors, but Rafa had a shitload of them.

This will be a huge style contrast to what Thiem saw today since Daniil doesn't give you anything to tee off on. And it's no secret that low balls are Thiem's kryptonite. Medvedev will make this a grind, and I've seen this movie plenty of times where Thiem's response to the ball continuing to come back is to hit harder and harder until he makes an error. You can't hit through Medvedev no matter who you are. He loves pace and he's long AF and rangy.

Another thing is DM plays close to the baseline instead of 10 feet back like Rafa, so Thiem's dropshots will have less margin for error. Daniil is faster than he looks too, and he anticipates well.

Medvedev's game looks like someone took Andy Murray and put him in the body of a 6'6" skinny kid with an above-average serve. And that's damn scary. It won't happen at RG, but I think Daniil Medvedev will be the next slam winner outside of the big 3.

I'll save you the trouble and bookmark this myself.

he's having a great year so far