re: Ryan Howard struck out twice tonight in 4 at bats

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A better parallel would be saying that Randy Johnson doesn’t have some special skill to pitch in the 5th inning, even though he regularly puts up good numbers in the 5th. He doesn’t do so because of some innate 5th inning skill, but because he’s a good pitcher.

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BOOM

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And I certainly can’t speak for other people, but your demand that stats absolutely 100% repeat has not been asserted in this thread.

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That was only my demand because others have said that.

That wasnt my claim. And I certainly didnt think they %100 repeated themselves when they made that claim

but when you say in 1 sentence:

1)all good hitters hit in any situation

then in the next

2)all clutch stats are random



then that doesnt make sense. Whether clutch stats are "real" or not, those 2 claims by the same person doesnt make sense.

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After you have stretched others arguments to the breaking point, this is a pretty funny claim. But I am not even saying you argued that, I am saying that for a skill to be repeatable, the league leaders tend to be the same. Will it be 100% crossover? Of course not. But two of the more repeatable skills are homers and strikeouts and the leaderboards look pretty similar each year. I’m not arguing that you made this assertion. This is my assertion. I made no claim you made this argument because it is my argument. I’m trying to help you understand what I mean by a “repeatable skill”.

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My point is that there are players who consistently hit well in the clutch.

Do you not agree?

If not, then I am sorry. Whether it be measured in stats or magical jumping beans or however you want to measure it. Not everything can be measured by stats.


And yes, before you say it, GOOD PLAYERS do hit well in the clutch.

And before you say, I dont care what the top 10 leaderboards say year to year.


You don't have to lead the league in something in order to be considered "consistent".

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It doesn’t. It just means there isn’t some clutch skill they have. They are already good hitters

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so you are discounting it. Just say it. Or realize it.

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That said, if there is a stat that proves clutch hitting, it hasn't been created or perfected.

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AVG RISP is pretty good, IMO.


sure there may be a flaw or 2, but there are no perfect stats in baseball.

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AVG RISP is pretty good, IMO

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see I'd argue obp, slugging and ops in that situation are more important but not perfect.

Well, let’s take David Ortiz for example. I’m going to use AVG/OBP/SLG by year in two “clutch” situations: RISP + 2 outs and Late & Close. I’m using baseball-ref.
RISP + 2 outs
2007 304/458/536
2006 288/447/500
2005 368/507/719
2004 278/350/556
2003 261/370/522

Late and Close
2007 263/371/395
2006 314/443/756
2005 346/447/846
2004 324/380/634
2003 306/390/681

Overall
2007 332/445/621
2006 287/413/636
2005 300/397/604
2004 301/380/603
2003 288/369/592

Note how the overall stats are remarkably consistent yet the clutch stats are all over the place. In fact, most of Ortiz’s dips in OBP and SLG can be attributed to the fluctuations in batting average, which is a less consistent metric.

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no, baloo is just smart enough to explain what he actually means, and in the end, has little holes in his argument.

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just b/c you are a stupid fuucking frick and need it spelled out to you like a 2 year old isn't my fault. Baloo and I said the same thing he just spoon fed it to you

ERA is too dependent on your fielders and bullpen who come in for you with runners on base too be the most important stat. DIPS is just a defensive independent ERA based on run expections given a pitchers hits and walks