re: Ryan Howard struck out twice tonight in 4 at bats

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LE thinks RBI is a good measure of an individual's talent because it shows his ablity to "turn it on" with runners on base and it shows "moxy"

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Damn, speaking of comprehension lapses...

I dont think RBI is the greatest stat, but it certainly isnt "totally" irrelevant like you say.


As far as understanding the game, you can ask any person that has played the game past tee ball, that in pressure circumstances, some people come through, and some people dont.

So yes, some players turn it on, and some players have a knack for getting a big hit.


You can read all the Nate Silver and Bill James articles you want, but if you have never played the game, you would never understand. Which seems to be your case.

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Then people who look a little further into the numbers and understand the game shows him that he is wrong.

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and in your case, you think you are some guru because you copy the thoughts of some no name baseball fan. Nate Silver? WTF?

When SFP chimes in you know the intelligence level in the thread is about to go down. j/k

Mr State the Obvious continues to shine

and Mr. Doucherocket continues to think that RBI is a good tool to examine how good a hitter someone is.

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and Mr. Doucherocket continues to think that RBI is a good tool to examine how good a hitter someone is.

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well, after all you are the person that says batting average doesnt gauge how well a player hits..........

well, after all you are the person that says batting average doesnt gauge how well a player hits

if taken by itself it for sure doesn't measure how productive a hitter is.

so out of the 100's of stats in baseball, you are going to hang your hat on one that remains the same every year?

and you are going to say that because clutch stats dont duplicate, that they are completely random?


so that would make nearly every stat in baseball completely random?

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and in your case, you think you are some guru because you copy the thoughts of some no name baseball fan. Nate Silver? WTF?

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He was not a pro baseball player, but he has co-authored a good amount of books that were decent sellers, and written many articles for well respected newspapers and magazines

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frick Baloo and his infinite wisdom

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Glad to help. Thanks!

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so out of the 100's of stats in baseball, you are going to hang your hat on one that remains the same every year?

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That's not the argument. No one exactly duplicates their stats, but hitters do tend to have similar stat lines (or progressions and regressions based on improving or getting older).

For example, if you look at a list of home run leaders each season, it's pretty consistent. They'll be the occasional guy who pops in once, but the list is fairly consistent. A guy who hits 30 homers one year is a good bet to hit for power next year. A pitcher who throws a lot of strikeouts will throw a lot of strikeouts next year as well.

But a guy who hits well in clutch situations this year, there is no teling how he'll hit in the clutch next year. The leaders change every year. It is not a repeatable skill, which indicates that clutch hitting is a random event. Guyw hwo hit well in the clutch tend to do so because they are already good hitters, not becuase they have some special clutchiness skill.

I don't see how the repeatability of a skill is that tough of a concept. No one is arguing that a guy's statline is exactly the same every year.

But it is because of these variances that Voros McCracken was able to figure out that a pitcher has very little impact on whether a batted ball which is not a home run becomes a hit. Which explains the wild fluctuations in ERA. DIPS is a really cool metric and gives us a neat insight into why pitchers' ERAs are so volotile.

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But a guy who hits well in clutch situations this year, there is no teling how he'll hit in the clutch next year. The leaders change every year. It is not a repeatable skill, which indicates that clutch hitting is a random event. Guyw hwo hit well in the clutch tend to do so because they are already good hitters, not becuase they have some special clutchiness skill.

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Have you read this thread entirely?


people keep saying hitting stats "duplicate", and hitters hit the same and dont change in clutch situations, yet "clutch" hitting stats change?


If hitting the same in both situations is the same, then why does one NEVER DUPLICATE and one always does?


that doesn't make any sense to me.

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No one is arguing that a guy's statline is exactly the same every year.

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read the thread.

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But a guy who hits well in clutch situations this year, there is no teling how he'll hit in the clutch next year.

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I dont know, looking at a few guys who hit well with RISP, their AVG in those situations year to year is pretty similar.


You dont have to be a league leader every year in order be consistent year in and year out.


You are taking the argument and stretching it out now. I never once said that the same players are always at the top.

But if you look at the numbers, they usually hit well year in and year out in the clutch.

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Guyw hwo hit well in the clutch tend to do so because they are already good hitters, not becuase they have some special clutchiness skill.

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Good hitters usually have better physical skills and better mental makeup than your average player, thus they often come through in tough situations.


Thats why I keep saying he is stating the obvious.

"Coaches put good players in spots to drive in runs.."

well, no shite..

"guys who hit well in the clutch, are already good hitters"....

well, no shite again.



Why does that discount the fact that they hit well in the clutch?



It's like saying "Randy Johnson,throws hard and has some good pitches, thus strikes out a lot of batters, but he doesn't have some special strikeout skill. It's just because he is a good pitcher."

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Also, Nate Silver is hardly a no name. He’s the editor of Baseball Prospectus, which is probably the most influential baseball publication of the last decade. To put it in layman’s terms, he is the leader of the Moneyball movement which has essentially transformed every front office in the game. There is not a single front office which does not use some form of sabermetric analysis today. Not one. The split between scouts and analysts is largely a media construct

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LE's team is just going to be filled with the moxy all stars led by David Eckstein. LE will change the game forever