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re: Retroactively predict the CFB playoff participants each year since 2000 and the results
Posted on 7/15/18 at 9:49 pm to RLDSC FAN
Posted on 7/15/18 at 9:49 pm to RLDSC FAN
quote:
2008 is the one that bothers me the most. That might have been Petes most talented team, but the offense laid an egg that night in Corvallis.
05 they were inches away from beating Texas.
06 all they had to do was beat a shitty UCLA team and they thump Ohio state.
08 was arguably their best team, but for whatever reason, they were never in the title hunt. It was a strange year.
0
Posted on 7/15/18 at 9:56 pm to Korin
Stanford still finished 4th in the BCS standings over Oregon despite losing to them and not winning the conference. Alabama and Oklahoma State losing in the final week would have meant Stanford getting into the title game, not Oregon. And we’ve already seen how the playoff committee handles these scenarios.
Ohio State lost to conference champion Penn State in 2016 head to head and still got in over them due to the “eyeball test”.
(As a side note, I think that a loss is a loss and that there shouldn’t be any such thing as a “good loss” or a “bad loss”. That silliness is what helped get Alabama in in 2011, Ohio State in in 2016 and Alabama in in 2017.)
Ohio State lost to conference champion Penn State in 2016 head to head and still got in over them due to the “eyeball test”.
(As a side note, I think that a loss is a loss and that there shouldn’t be any such thing as a “good loss” or a “bad loss”. That silliness is what helped get Alabama in in 2011, Ohio State in in 2016 and Alabama in in 2017.)
This post was edited on 7/15/18 at 10:01 pm
Posted on 7/15/18 at 10:00 pm to cbree88
quote:
2002: Miami defeats Georgia in finals
quote:
2007: USC Defeats Georgia in finals
Consider me glad that the CFB didn't exist back then
Posted on 7/15/18 at 10:02 pm to Dawgsontop34
(no message)
This post was edited on 7/15/18 at 10:06 pm
Posted on 7/15/18 at 10:04 pm to cbree88
quote:
As a side note, I think that a loss is a loss and that there shouldn’t be any such thing as a “good loss” or a “bad loss”. That silliness is what helped get Alabama in in 2011, Ohio State in in 2016 and Alabama in in 2017.
So if a loss is a loss, then what is two losses to you?
Posted on 7/15/18 at 10:04 pm to cbree88
The Colt McCoy injury never happens? Now we are predicting butterfly effect injuries?
In 2011, the entire Bama team gets food poisoning the day of the game and LSU wins.
In 2011, the entire Bama team gets food poisoning the day of the game and LSU wins.
Posted on 7/15/18 at 10:05 pm to cbree88
quote:
Consider me glad that the CFB didn't exist back then
But wait. there’s more.
2017: Bama defeats Georgia in finals.
Posted on 7/15/18 at 10:07 pm to TheWalrus
quote:
The Colt McCoy injury never happens? Now we are predicting butterfly effect injuries?
I said that because the BCS title game at the Rose Bowl that McCoy got hurt in would never have happened.
This post was edited on 7/15/18 at 10:15 pm
Posted on 7/15/18 at 10:13 pm to RollTide1987
Doesn’t matter as long as the 2 loss team beat your team and won the division. After winning the conference championship game, that team will have the same number of wins as you and will have played an extra game against a quality opponent and taken a risk that your team did not have to take at all.
When I say a loss is a loss, I mean that they should be counted equally. No “high quality losses” or “poor quality losses”.
When I say a loss is a loss, I mean that they should be counted equally. No “high quality losses” or “poor quality losses”.
This post was edited on 7/15/18 at 10:17 pm
Posted on 7/15/18 at 10:28 pm to cbree88
quote:
Stanford still finished 4th in the BCS standings over Oregon despite losing to them and not winning the conference. Alabama and Oklahoma State losing in the final week would have meant Stanford getting into the title game, not Oregon. And we’ve already seen how the playoff committee handles these scenarios.
Ohio State lost to conference champion Penn State in 2016 head to head and still got in over them due to the “eyeball test”.
(As a side note, I think that a loss is a loss and that there shouldn’t be any such thing as a “good loss” or a “bad loss”. That silliness is what helped get Alabama in in 2011, Ohio State in in 2016 and Alabama in in 2017.)
quote:
Stanford still finished 4th in the BCS standings over Oregon despite losing to them and not winning the conference. Alabama and Oklahoma State losing in the final week would have meant Stanford getting into the title game, not Oregon. And we’ve already seen how the playoff committee handles these scenarios.
Ohio State lost to conference champion Penn State in 2016 head to head and still got in over them due to the “eyeball test”.
(As a side note, I think that a loss is a loss and that there shouldn’t be any such thing as a “good loss” or a “bad loss”. That silliness is what helped get Alabama in in 2011, Ohio State in in 2016 and Alabama in in 2017.)
We've seen how the committee treats losses differently. Oregon gets in over Stanford. They didn't have a 30 point loss like Penn State and Ohio State.
Posted on 7/15/18 at 10:31 pm to cbree88
quote:
When I say a loss is a loss, I mean that they should be counted equally. No “high quality losses” or “poor quality losses”.
Pre-BCS you used to get dropped the same amount of places for a loss...about 7.
So the saying was, you could lose early and climb your way back in the polls but you could never lose late.
I think 2011 LSU/Bama changed that. For the first time, the voters didn't treat all loses the same...but counted body of work and evaluated the loss.
For example, Oklahoma went from #3 to #11 after their first loss in 2011. A traditional drop.
Alabama went from #2 to #4 after their late loss.
Losses used to be somewhat consistent...then voters became more subjective based on how they evaluated opponents.
But the old saying was...a loss drops you at least 6 places...regardless of opponent. Which is why teams stopped scheduling tough opponents early on. Michigan/Notre Dame quit their first game of the year series because they'd both start the season ranked in the Top 5 and didn't want to drop to #10 after week 1.
The automatic drop wasn't fair but it was consistent. Losses were the be all end all back then...now they are not...it matters who you play.
This post was edited on 7/15/18 at 10:32 pm
Posted on 7/15/18 at 10:31 pm to cbree88
dp
This post was edited on 7/15/18 at 10:31 pm
Posted on 7/15/18 at 10:32 pm to Korin
Haha. We’ll just have to agree to disagree on it.
Posted on 7/15/18 at 10:41 pm to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
I don’t like treating loses differently because there are so many factors that go into it.
For example, in 2011 when Oklahoma State lost to Iowa State, one of the Oklahoma State women’s athletic teams died in a plane crash not long before that game. This might have been on those football players’ minds and negatively impacted their performance that night.
However, these factors were not taken into consideration and the loss was viewed as a “bad loss” by the polls. See the problem with this?
For example, in 2011 when Oklahoma State lost to Iowa State, one of the Oklahoma State women’s athletic teams died in a plane crash not long before that game. This might have been on those football players’ minds and negatively impacted their performance that night.
However, these factors were not taken into consideration and the loss was viewed as a “bad loss” by the polls. See the problem with this?
This post was edited on 7/15/18 at 10:43 pm
Posted on 7/15/18 at 10:52 pm to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
Bama lost by 3 in ot to undefeated LSU.
During the game the LSU defender wrestled the ball away at the goal.line to save the game.
That is a great loss.
A bad loss is WV 13-9 to Pitt.
Rivalry game.
During the game the LSU defender wrestled the ball away at the goal.line to save the game.
That is a great loss.
A bad loss is WV 13-9 to Pitt.
Rivalry game.
Posted on 7/15/18 at 10:54 pm to cbree88
quote:
But wait. there’s more.
2017: Bama defeats Georgia in finals.
Well this is just unnecessary
Posted on 7/15/18 at 11:23 pm to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
quote:
So the saying was, you could lose early and climb your way back in the polls but you could never lose late.
I think 2011 LSU/Bama changed that. For the first time, the voters didn't treat all loses the same...but counted body of work and evaluated the loss.
For example, Oklahoma went from #3 to #11 after their first loss in 2011. A traditional drop.
Alabama went from #2 to #4 after their late loss.
Yeah....no.
In 1993, #1 Florida State lost to #2 Notre Dame in mid-November but only dropped to #2. They were #1 again by the end of the regular season - with three undefeated teams behind them (#2 Nebraska, #3 West Virginia, and #5 Auburn).
And then you have #1 Florida losing to #2 Florida State in the last game of the 1996 regular season. They only dropped to #4 and were national champions come January 2.
This idea of a "good loss" most certainly did not originate with 2011 Alabama. It's been around for at least the last 25 years.
This post was edited on 7/15/18 at 11:59 pm
Posted on 7/16/18 at 12:24 am to cbree88
2000: Florida State vs. Washington, Miami vs. Oklahoma
Washington beat Miami who beat Florida State. However, Florida State gets ranked ahead of Miami to prevent an immediate rematch in the first round. Florida State and Miami advance, and Miami wins the title.
2001: Nebraska vs. Oregon, Illinois/Maryland vs. Miami
Either team could be in the 4th spot, but it wouldn't matter as Miami curbstomps either team. Oregon gets to the title game, but loses to Miami.
2002: Georgia vs. Ohio State, Iowa vs. Miami
Same result as what actually happened. Ohio State over Miami in the final.
2003: Oklahoma vs. LSU, Michigan vs. USC
USC and LSU play for the title as both semifinal matchups are bowl games that actually happened. LSU wins.
2004: Auburn vs. Oklahoma, Utah vs. USC
Utah proves they belong and puts up a fight against USC, but USC still advances and beats Auburn in the final.
2005: Penn State vs. Texas, West Virginia vs. USC
Same result as what actually happened. Texas over USC in an epic final.
2006: Louisville vs. Florida, Boise State vs. Ohio State
The committee decides to give an undefeated Boise State a shot instead of giving Michigan a mulligan. They lose to Ohio State, but are not embarrassed. Florida beats Ohio State in the final.
2007: LSU vs. Hawaii, Oklahoma vs. Ohio State
LSU vs. Oklahoma in the final. LSU wins.
2008: Texas vs. Florida, USC vs. Oklahoma
Both Big 12 teams lose in their semifinal games. Florida beats USC in one of the greatest games ever. Blake Gideon's dropped interception continues to haunt Penn State fans to this day.
2009: TCU vs. Texas, Cincinnati vs. Alabama
TCU puts up a solid showing against Texas in the biggest Cotton Bowl in history, but loses. Alabama wrecks Cincinnati. Colt McCoy gets injured and Alabama wins.
2010: TCU vs. Oregon, Michigan State vs. Auburn
Michigan State has the head-to-head over Wisconsin and gets the 4th spot (ala Baylor/TCU 2014). They get blasted by Auburn, while TCU beats Oregon in a great game. TCU beats Auburn in a classic to win the title. Brotzman's missed kick is even more painful for Boise State fans.
2011: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State, Boise State vs. LSU
After much deliberation, the committee decides to put Boise State in the 4th spot, despite them being a mid-major with a loss, citing that it would be unfair for Alabama to potentially go 1-1 against LSU, have the same record, and still win the title. LSU soundly beats Boise State and Oklahoma State, cementing their legacy as one of the greatest teams of all-time.
2012: Oregon vs. Alabama, Kansas State vs. Notre Dame
The real title game is Oregon vs. Alabama, which Alabama wins in an epic thriller. Kansas State, with a healthy Collin Klein, overcomes Notre Dame, but is destroyed by Alabama in the final.
2013: Michigan State vs. Auburn, Baylor vs. Florida State
Baylor, being a 1-loss conference champion, gets the 4th spot thanks to Justin Gilbert dropping an interception that would've sealed a playoff spot for Oklahoma State. They get destroyed by Florida State. Michigan State and Auburn once again face off in a playoff bowl, but Michigan State is much more prepared this time around, boasting one of the better defenses in recent memory. Still, Auburn wins. Florida State beats Auburn in a thriller to win the title.
Washington beat Miami who beat Florida State. However, Florida State gets ranked ahead of Miami to prevent an immediate rematch in the first round. Florida State and Miami advance, and Miami wins the title.
2001: Nebraska vs. Oregon, Illinois/Maryland vs. Miami
Either team could be in the 4th spot, but it wouldn't matter as Miami curbstomps either team. Oregon gets to the title game, but loses to Miami.
2002: Georgia vs. Ohio State, Iowa vs. Miami
Same result as what actually happened. Ohio State over Miami in the final.
2003: Oklahoma vs. LSU, Michigan vs. USC
USC and LSU play for the title as both semifinal matchups are bowl games that actually happened. LSU wins.
2004: Auburn vs. Oklahoma, Utah vs. USC
Utah proves they belong and puts up a fight against USC, but USC still advances and beats Auburn in the final.
2005: Penn State vs. Texas, West Virginia vs. USC
Same result as what actually happened. Texas over USC in an epic final.
2006: Louisville vs. Florida, Boise State vs. Ohio State
The committee decides to give an undefeated Boise State a shot instead of giving Michigan a mulligan. They lose to Ohio State, but are not embarrassed. Florida beats Ohio State in the final.
2007: LSU vs. Hawaii, Oklahoma vs. Ohio State
LSU vs. Oklahoma in the final. LSU wins.
2008: Texas vs. Florida, USC vs. Oklahoma
Both Big 12 teams lose in their semifinal games. Florida beats USC in one of the greatest games ever. Blake Gideon's dropped interception continues to haunt Penn State fans to this day.
2009: TCU vs. Texas, Cincinnati vs. Alabama
TCU puts up a solid showing against Texas in the biggest Cotton Bowl in history, but loses. Alabama wrecks Cincinnati. Colt McCoy gets injured and Alabama wins.
2010: TCU vs. Oregon, Michigan State vs. Auburn
Michigan State has the head-to-head over Wisconsin and gets the 4th spot (ala Baylor/TCU 2014). They get blasted by Auburn, while TCU beats Oregon in a great game. TCU beats Auburn in a classic to win the title. Brotzman's missed kick is even more painful for Boise State fans.
2011: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State, Boise State vs. LSU
After much deliberation, the committee decides to put Boise State in the 4th spot, despite them being a mid-major with a loss, citing that it would be unfair for Alabama to potentially go 1-1 against LSU, have the same record, and still win the title. LSU soundly beats Boise State and Oklahoma State, cementing their legacy as one of the greatest teams of all-time.
2012: Oregon vs. Alabama, Kansas State vs. Notre Dame
The real title game is Oregon vs. Alabama, which Alabama wins in an epic thriller. Kansas State, with a healthy Collin Klein, overcomes Notre Dame, but is destroyed by Alabama in the final.
2013: Michigan State vs. Auburn, Baylor vs. Florida State
Baylor, being a 1-loss conference champion, gets the 4th spot thanks to Justin Gilbert dropping an interception that would've sealed a playoff spot for Oklahoma State. They get destroyed by Florida State. Michigan State and Auburn once again face off in a playoff bowl, but Michigan State is much more prepared this time around, boasting one of the better defenses in recent memory. Still, Auburn wins. Florida State beats Auburn in a thriller to win the title.
This post was edited on 7/16/18 at 12:27 am
Posted on 7/16/18 at 12:38 am to cbree88
Interesting topic, not sure why you’re getting pounded with down votes
A couple I’ll quibble with
2002: I think Iowa goes over USC. USC has one of the toughest schedules but they had 2 losses same was WSU who beat them (WSU was in Rose Bowl) Iowa had 1 loss and was 8-0 in B1G, they didn’t play OSU.
2007: I’m pretty sure Va Tech and OU finished 3-4 in the BCS both were 11-2 and conference champs. I think they get in over UGA and USC
A couple I’ll quibble with
2002: I think Iowa goes over USC. USC has one of the toughest schedules but they had 2 losses same was WSU who beat them (WSU was in Rose Bowl) Iowa had 1 loss and was 8-0 in B1G, they didn’t play OSU.
2007: I’m pretty sure Va Tech and OU finished 3-4 in the BCS both were 11-2 and conference champs. I think they get in over UGA and USC
Posted on 7/16/18 at 1:02 am to H-Town Tiger
Probably...but in today's eye-test environment?
Plus ND cache...shite, Palmer won the Heisman because of his performance over ND in the last game of the year on national television...and people were saying USC might be the best team in the country despite their two-losses. That would have been strange to keep USC out of a 4-team playoff when they were hot in the public's eye.
Whipping ND carries a lot of weight.
They also whipped UCLA and Washington to end the year.
Iowa lost to Iowa State at home.
USC lost to final #6 K-State on the road by 6 points.
And final #10 Wazzu on the road 3 points in OT.
In 2002, probably Iowa gets in.
Now, when people are saying eye-test and quality of wins...USC probably gets in.
Plus ND cache...shite, Palmer won the Heisman because of his performance over ND in the last game of the year on national television...and people were saying USC might be the best team in the country despite their two-losses. That would have been strange to keep USC out of a 4-team playoff when they were hot in the public's eye.
Whipping ND carries a lot of weight.
They also whipped UCLA and Washington to end the year.
Iowa lost to Iowa State at home.
USC lost to final #6 K-State on the road by 6 points.
And final #10 Wazzu on the road 3 points in OT.
In 2002, probably Iowa gets in.
Now, when people are saying eye-test and quality of wins...USC probably gets in.
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