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I feel like Stephen Daley is a bigger absence than all of Oregon’s missing players combined.

re: Indiana Oregon game thread

Posted by karmew32 on 1/9/26 at 6:51 pm to
The pick-six thrower won this matchup last time.

Just saying.
Wisconsin to my knowledge hasn't had a team that was in national title pole position. The closest was probably 2017, but I doubt they beat either Georgia or Oklahoma. The 2010 team was probably their best but it's hard to say whether they jump Auburn/Oregon or not.

My picks are Oregon, West Virginia, and Kansas State. All 3 have been the favorite to win the national title at a given point in a season but failed to get it done.

Oregon was favored to win the 2012 national title after Bama slipped up against A&M and was favored to win the 2014 national title game. They came very close in 2010 though they were slight underdogs against Auburn. I'd say 2012 was their best chance.

West Virginia was the favorite in 2007 after LSU slipped up against Arkansas. Missouri was projected to lose to Oklahoma and WVU would've been favored against Ohio State

After Ohio State slipped up against Michigan State in 1998, Kansas State was clearly the best of the 3 remaining unbeatens, though their situation was a bit more hazy with how the BCS computers were treating them compared to Tennessee/UCLA. After UCLA lost to Miami, there was a brief few hours where Kansas State was the odds-on favorite to win the national title as they would've been favored against Tennessee.

I think 1998 Kansas State is the best single-season team from any title-less program and would beat many national champions.
I think Miami beats Indiana despite the talent, coaching, and seniority disadvantages.
That's what really sucks about that loss. It felt like Rams fans were rewarded for the indifference while we were punished for our passion.
It definitely feels like the 1998 Big 12 CCG has endured the most in the public consciousness out of all the big CCG upsets. Probably because it was Kansas State and not a more traditionally successful program like Nebraska/Texas/Tennessee/Oklahoma.
Like Indiana’s turnaround under Cignetti, Kansas State was the worst D-I football program before Snyder arrived. 1998 was the apex with a Heisman-level QB in Bishop, 8 All-Americans, and 25 future NFLers. From what I’ve read, they were the favorite to win the national title, particularly after their closest equal that season in Ohio State got upset by a Saban-helmed Michigan State team.

Every neutral seems to have rallied around this Indiana team in a way I’ve never seen. It’s a rare overlap of the best story also being the best team. Did 1998 Kansas State garner similar national support among neutrals?
That KSU team was the best single-season CFB team from 1996-2000. Absolutely elite in all facets and the coaching staff was basically a CFB brain trust. I'd take them straight-up over many national champions.

The way they lost against A&M was eerily reminiscent of Game 7 of the most recent World Series.
I think bowl game rematches in particular favor the losing team.
Never have I been more happy to be proven wrong.
I think the only hope against Indiana is to turn the game into a track meet. If the game is a street fight, Indiana wins.

Even more surreal to say that since normally successful seasons by non-traditional powers are associated with speed & Air Raid offenses, not by winning mainly at the line of scrimmage. Indiana is one of the best LOS-first teams I've ever seen.
It's even more inspiring because they're not some smoke-and-mirrors team like 2008 Texas Tech/2012 Kansas State. They legitimately look like the best team in the country. CFB hasn't had a feel-good juggernaut since 1998 Kansas State.
Bama was the most hated underdog in recent memory and Indiana is simultaneously a great story and a bonafide juggernaut. If you don't like them and aren't a Purdue fan, you don't like college football.
If you think about it, Iowa State set the realignment/NIL arms race into motion way back in 2011.
Vanderbilt is more of a pure great story while Indiana is simultaneously a great story and a legitimately elite team. That combo is rare. All of the losses most commonly found on “most devastating losses” lists involve those “all-time story/legit contender” combos tripping up in a close late-season game against a far inferior opponent.

1998 Kansas State
2007 West Virginia
2010 Boise State
2011 Oklahoma State

None of those teams were flukes playing above their talent level. All were preseason top 10 teams.

re: Indiana (-6.5) vs Bama

Posted by karmew32 on 12/19/25 at 11:23 pm to
The only reason the spread is as small as it is is because of the names of the 2 programs. IU is realistically 2 TDs better. This is coming from someone who expects Bama to fall backwards into a win.
If the Bama team was literally any other program, I'd pick Indiana handily. Bama just finds ways to break hearts.
I never said Indiana was overperforming. I think they're just like 1998 KSU/2010 Boise. They're absolutely legit but also a feel-good story. Those two things aren't mutually exclusive.
1998 KSU and 2010 Boise weren't lightning in a bottle. They were each at least top 6 in the preseason polls and you could make an argument that they were each the most talented team in the country those respective years.

By feel-good story/legit team overlap, I mean a historically inferior program having a team that's legit on the level of the traditional powers. Not a 2008 Texas Tech/2012 KSU situation where it was an overperforming team that got exposed.
quote:



Did you actually watch the game? Oklahoma lost that game way more than Bama won.

Exactly, just like the Jays lost that World Series more than the Dodgers won it. Bama has historically thrived on voodoo magic.