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re: Ranking FBS national champions since 1990

Posted on 6/8/17 at 3:34 pm to
Posted by pvilleguru
Member since Jun 2009
60453 posts
Posted on 6/8/17 at 3:34 pm to
2009 Alabama struggled with a lot of teams (VT, Kentucky, LSU, Auburn, USC, and Tennessee). 2012 Alabama wasn't even tested until they played LSU.
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
59158 posts
Posted on 6/8/17 at 3:43 pm to
quote:

, the 09 Tide finished undefeated against the nation's toughest schedule and defeated opponents by a 21 pt average. Therefore, they amounted to the best team that year, that decade, and since 1990.


first off it was he #2 SOS that year and all that in no way means any of your subsequent claims are true

It is great that you are looking at advanced stats and using them to back up your argument but there are big flaws in your analysis namely your are put way too much stock into the SOS component and worse using it to make your own hypotheticals. The only metric 09 Bama has over 95 NU is SOS, NU frankly obliterates them in all other measures but you ignore that and claim it is due to the SOS difference (a hypothetical). NU SOS was 24, that's Top 20% that year, not 2 overall but not cupcake city either.

Your other big flaw is looking only a macro and ignoring micro. If you look at the game results and not just the averages NU won 11 games by +23, their closest game was 14. Bama had 4 games less than 14 including 2 by less than 1 score and those were against not top 5 teams, but mediocre one, who yes made Bowls but there were 34 Bowls in 2009 vs 18 in 1995.

Also look at the title game. Both played the #3 SRS team from that year. 95 Florida had a better SOS and SRS than 09 Texas. NU won by 38, Bama by 16, but if we go micro we see that Nebraskas win was way more dominant. Bama was not really dominant at all vs Texas. Nebraska obliterated Florida. NU had 27 first downs and 629 yards to Fla 15 and 269. Bama had 16 and 262 to 15 and 273 for Texas. The score was 24-21 and Texas had the ball with less than 5 minutes to go. A sack fumble and Int on successive drives and the MOV is 16. Throw in an ill advised shovel pass Int and returned for a TD and that's 20 points off turnovers. Credit their D for making plays but that's not dominating. BTW NU won by 38 and gave up a KO TD after going up 62-17.

By pretty much every measure 95 Nebraska dominated the season like no one else.
This post was edited on 6/8/17 at 3:45 pm
Posted by BowlJackson
Birmingham, AL
Member since Sep 2013
52881 posts
Posted on 6/8/17 at 3:55 pm to
You've probably never even heard of Corey Davis before, have you?
Posted by ThePTExperience1969
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Apr 2016
13360 posts
Posted on 6/8/17 at 3:57 pm to
Never used or created hypotheticals, I used the team's statistics relative to 2009 and presented them to support my argument.
Posted by RoscoeHarper
Edmond, OK
Member since Aug 2011
4543 posts
Posted on 6/8/17 at 4:00 pm to
You forgot to say MOV and SOS in your last post. Better edit
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
59158 posts
Posted on 6/8/17 at 4:10 pm to
You said 95!Nebraska played a considerably weaker schedule than 09 Bama, and that explains the 53-14 ppg difference. That's purely subjective, particularly since "considerably" is not a defined term. Bama did have a tougher schedule, but at 24 NU was still a top 20% (tougher than 80% of other teams). I fail to see how you can prove the considerably better MOV of 38 vs 21 and ypg differential of +295 to +158 can be accounted for solely by a difference in SOS btwn 2 and 24 (or 1.6% vs 20%) hence it is a hypothetical.
Posted by ThePTExperience1969
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Apr 2016
13360 posts
Posted on 6/8/17 at 4:17 pm to
Also, IDGAF about the SOS or SRS of the title opposition, they're not relevant to the argument the 2009 Bama team vs the 1995 Nebraska stop strawmanning the damn argument. Next, when a certain team's SOS is 24th and the other certain team another year's is 2nd, a reasonable person would probably construe that differential as "considerably weaker." The entire point I've been making and proving is that Bama dominated 10 winning teams in 2009 by a 14 pt MOV average and it was the 2nd strongest SOS in America that year. Nebraska in 1995 played 6 winning teams and 6 losers, thus when the competition is easier its easier to dominate by a 38 MOV on a weekly basis. How is this not computing out there?
This post was edited on 6/8/17 at 4:22 pm
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
59158 posts
Posted on 6/8/17 at 4:46 pm to
It is not a straw man to point out Nebraska was way more dominant in the title game and I was pointing out the relative level of competition for both was essentially equally least you try and claim they had an easier opponent.

Considerably is a subjective term weather 2 is considerably better than 24 depends on context as is looking only at avg.

Bamas schedule was tougher but mostly in the middle, Nebraska played a couple more really bad teams and Bama played 1 more top 25 team, the top 4 for each was similar.

Bama also had 4 more close games, including 2 against mediocre teams. Unlike other posters I think a case can be made for 09 Bama, but overall I don't think they compare to 95 NU. Bama has a better SOS and that's it. NU s dominance in all other categories more than makes up for it.
This post was edited on 6/8/17 at 4:55 pm
Posted by Korin
Member since Jan 2014
37935 posts
Posted on 6/8/17 at 4:58 pm to
quote:

Also, IDGAF about the SOS or SRS of the title opposition, they're not relevant to the argument the 2009 Bama team vs the 1995 Nebraska stop strawmanning the damn argument. Next, when a certain team's SOS is 24th and the other certain team another year's is 2nd, a reasonable person would probably construe that differential as "considerably weaker." The entire point I've been making and proving is that Bama dominated 10 winning teams in 2009 by a 14 pt MOV average and it was the 2nd strongest SOS in America that year. Nebraska in 1995 played 6 winning teams and 6 losers, thus when the competition is easier its easier to dominate by a 38 MOV on a weekly basis. How is this not computing out there?

The problem is you're going off a SOS formula that's based entirely on win/loss record. Remember too that Alabama got an extra game against 13-1 Florida.
Posted by Korin
Member since Jan 2014
37935 posts
Posted on 6/8/17 at 5:04 pm to
quote:

Surprisingly, Washington didn't win or at least split with BYU that year

Probably because they didn't win their conference. #2 OU lost in the Orange and we were banned so BYU got it after beating 6-5 Michigan in the Holiday Bowl.
Also, I've read that Washington (being at-large since they weren't obligated to the Rose Bowl because they didn't win the Pac 10) could've played BYU in the Holiday but turned it down. Sucks for them.
Posted by ThePTExperience1969
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Apr 2016
13360 posts
Posted on 6/8/17 at 5:08 pm to
I submitted other stats too and, last time I checked, no criteria exists by which to establish which team is the best since 1990. All any of us can do is present the best, most persuasive case we can for the team we determine is the best from that specific year henceforth. I presented my opening argument and consequently my rebuttal and consider it persuasive pursuant to the application of facts to prove my point.
Posted by Korin
Member since Jan 2014
37935 posts
Posted on 6/8/17 at 5:11 pm to
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
203832 posts
Posted on 6/8/17 at 6:01 pm to
Boom game over!!!!!!!!!!!!



H-Town has just took you to school boy.........
Posted by ThePTExperience1969
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Apr 2016
13360 posts
Posted on 6/8/17 at 8:22 pm to
When it's debating the best college football teams, the "game" is never over. I never said 95 Nebraska wasn't a great team or anything but argued that 09 Alabama's accomplishments were more impressive because they permitted only 11 PPG, defeated the 10 winning teams by 2 TD average, submitted a 21 MOV against the 2nd toughest SOS in America, defeated the no. 1 and 2 teams by a 17 pt avg and possessed the nation's second best scoring and total defense. I concede 53-14 is impressive but that Nebraska team played 6 losing teams as well, when a team achieves 38-39 MOV one naturally gets suspicious and inquire about the SOS bc that reasonably may have enabled the gaudy outcomes. H-Town never took me to school, he simply obfuscated the argument by expressing that opponents from two separate years are remotely similar and convincing people to recontextualize entire seasons, let me re-emphasize 5 teams that would finish top 25 played 2009 Bama and duly lost, 3 top 10 teams. This isn't that difficult to assess and select and I believe I've made my points abundantly clear with my prior posts.
This post was edited on 6/8/17 at 9:21 pm
Posted by ThePTExperience1969
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Apr 2016
13360 posts
Posted on 6/8/17 at 8:27 pm to
You assess the teams that are at issue and compare them, eschewing all this context crap we're not gonna transpose "contexts" onto separate eras and engage in those unproven hypotheticals. You take teams as they are, eggshell skull doctrine style.
This post was edited on 6/8/17 at 9:10 pm
Posted by pvilleguru
Member since Jun 2009
60453 posts
Posted on 6/8/17 at 11:03 pm to
Dude, even Bama fans will tell you that 2009 wasn't even the best team Saban has had at Alabama. Much less the best team we've had since 1990.
Posted by RollTide1987
Augusta, GA
Member since Nov 2009
65147 posts
Posted on 6/8/17 at 11:12 pm to
quote:

2009 Alabama struggled with a lot of teams (VT, Kentucky, LSU, Auburn, USC, and Tennessee).


I disagree with a couple of these. Virginia Tech, Kentucky, and South Carolina were games that were really never in doubt. For instance...the Hokies led us 17-16 going into the fourth quarter, but we outgained them on the stat sheet 498-155. What kept them in the game were three long kickoff returns (one for a touchdown) that gave them short fields to work with. You also had that McElroy interception that put them 1st & Goal inside the 10-yard line. They only got a field goal out of that.

Against Kentucky we led in the game by scores of 31-6 and 38-13 respectively. They never had a chance. It was 21-6 at halftime as well.
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
59158 posts
Posted on 6/9/17 at 12:17 pm to
quote:

he simply obfuscated the argument by expressing that opponents from two separate years are remotely similar and convincing people to recontextualize entire seasons


I did no such thing, I'm simply breaking things down further and looking closer you don't like that because it challenges your conclusion. You can not simply look at a score and determine if a team dominated or not without looking at the box score. At the end of day you think SOS trumps everything else and I disagree. If the MOV and +yards were closer I might agree but MOV of 39 vs 20.4 and + 294.7 yds vs 158.8 is much greater imo than 2 to 24 schedule. Put another way I don't think the easier schedule accounts for a 21 more points 136 more yds per game. Now if you are correct and they did avg so many more points and yardspg because they were playing weaker teams, then it stands to reason they'd be rolling up against bad teams. But even against the top 4 teams they played, all top 10 teams, Nebraska was still more impressive. They dominated the best team they played more than Alabama. They had no close games good teams bad teams doesn't matter. Bama had several close games. That's why I contend 95 Nebraska dominated their season more than any other team

Posted by ThePTExperience1969
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Apr 2016
13360 posts
Posted on 6/9/17 at 12:45 pm to
As one who enjoys analyzing stats and college football, it's difficult for anyone to overlook the fact that the 95 Huskers played less winning teams and had a lower TO margin than the 09 Bama team. To dominate the nation's 2nd toughest schedule with a 21 pt MOV is an accomplishment that should never be diminished just because it wasn't 38-39, it was a tougher schedule and 3 TDs is 3 TDs no matter how you attempt to spin it. It appears to me people are downgrading teams bc they don't win by 40 against a much tougher schedule. So if a team wins by 30 PPG and they played a slightly tougher schedule than 95 Nebraska, you'd rank them lower than 95 Nebraska? I don't get this logic.
This post was edited on 6/9/17 at 12:46 pm
Posted by RollTide1987
Augusta, GA
Member since Nov 2009
65147 posts
Posted on 6/9/17 at 9:10 pm to
quote:

it's difficult for anyone to overlook the fact that the 95 Huskers played less winning teams and had a lower TO margin than the 09 Bama team


It really isn't. I love Alabama as much as anyone and I would be the first to tell you that 2009 Alabama was the weakest of Saban's four championship teams in Tuscaloosa.

Alabama played and beat three teams that finished ranked in the AP Top 10 in 2009. Nebraska played and beat four teams that finished ranked in the AP Top 10 in 1995. Alabama beat those three Top 10 teams by an average of 34-19 (+15). Nebraska beat those four Top 10 teams by an average of 49-18 (+31).
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