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Message
re: Philles making the playoffs
Posted on 9/13/12 at 11:38 pm to DrVinnyBoombatz
Posted on 9/13/12 at 11:38 pm to DrVinnyBoombatz
quote:
Is it probable? More than likely not.
It's more than not probable, it's about 97%(as of right now) not happening.
The best thing about it, is we will find out very soon
0
Posted on 9/13/12 at 11:40 pm to DrVinnyBoombatz
quote:
Here is the thing, St. Louis and LAD have to keep losing at this pace and Philly has to keep winning at this pace. If St. Louis and LAD play a little over .500 ball from this point forward, the Phillies would have to win at an extremely high percentage.
Here is the thing, STL and LAD have been the same team the entire year, so at this rate, the Phillies will take the 2nd wild card slot.
STL and LAD are playing a 4 game series starting tonight, while the Phils have the Astros, chance to gain some serious ground this weekend alone.
Bump this Sunday night, say the Phils win fri/sat/sun vs the Astros, and the Cards win Fri/Sat and LAD Sunday, that's gaining a game on STL (2.5 out) and gaining 2 games on the Dodgers.
Very important weekend for everyone with either STL or LAD losing some games no matter what.
Posted on 9/13/12 at 11:48 pm to TigerTig
I wanted to start this thread yesterday. It seems like no one's noticed the Phillies.
Posted on 9/13/12 at 11:49 pm to UltimateHog
Look at the teams remaining schedule. After Houston, the Phillies have to play 9 out of 15 games vs Atlanta and Washington. The Cards have a much easier schedule with 9 out of 15 games vs Houston and the Cubs.
This is a huge series for both teams. I think the Dodgers are done no matter what though.
This is a huge series for both teams. I think the Dodgers are done no matter what though.
Posted on 9/13/12 at 11:51 pm to DrVinnyBoombatz
quote:
Look at the teams remaining schedule. After Houston, the Phillies have to play 9 out of 15 games vs Atlanta and Washington. The Cards have a much easier schedule with 9 out of 15 games vs Houston and the Cubs.
The Cardinals end the season with 3 vs the Nats and 3 vs the Reds.
Not exactly ideal.
Posted on 9/13/12 at 11:53 pm to UltimateHog
quote:
Not exactly ideal.
Sure, not ideal at all. But those 9 games before the last two series look like a good way to build a lead back up and get back on track.
Posted on 9/13/12 at 11:54 pm to UltimateHog
You aren't taking into account the fact that multiple teams have to fail pretty miserably for them to make it. One of them will get hot, statistically it's going to happen.
ETA: And statistically the Phillies are gonna cool down, hence their loss to the worst team in baseball.
ETA: And statistically the Phillies are gonna cool down, hence their loss to the worst team in baseball.
This post was edited on 9/13/12 at 11:55 pm
Posted on 9/13/12 at 11:57 pm to DrVinnyBoombatz
quote:
Sure, not ideal at all. But those 9 games before the last two series look like a good way to build a lead back up and get back on track.
It can be, but the Cardinals rarely dominate the Cubs in wrigley, 8-6 this year in the series total.
Should take 2 of 3, should.
The Phillies get the Mets and Marlins also, and I believe they just sweeped the Marlins so who knows.
2-1 Cardinals over the Dodgers in the 9th.
This post was edited on 9/13/12 at 11:58 pm
Posted on 9/13/12 at 11:59 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
You aren't taking into account the fact that multiple teams have to fail pretty miserably for them to make it. One of them will get hot, statistically it's going to happen.
Unlikely one of them "gets hot". They aren't good enough, haven't been all season, especially August/September.
quote:
And statistically the Phillies are gonna cool down, hence their loss to the worst team in baseball
The Cardinals just got swept by the Padres.
Posted on 9/14/12 at 12:17 am to UltimateHog
Cardinals win 
Posted on 9/14/12 at 12:17 am to UltimateHog
Posted on 9/14/12 at 12:20 am to UltimateHog
quote:
They aren't good enough, haven't been all season,
They have a better record than the Phillies this season...
Posted on 9/14/12 at 12:20 am to Woopigsooie20
Cards win!
Posted on 9/14/12 at 12:22 am to KosmoCramer
quote:
They have a better record than the Phillies this season...
And the Braves had a better record than the Cardinals at this point, and a 10.5 game lead in the WC.
Did you say this same stupid shite last year too?
Learn from it.
Posted on 9/14/12 at 9:29 am to UltimateHog
quote:
3 vs Braves, 6 vs Nats to end the year.
This is why I don't think the Phils make it.
Those last three with the Nats might not be a problem if the Nats have already clinched the division by then.
Not to mention they swept the Nats in Philly just three weeks ago or so.
Posted on 9/14/12 at 9:32 am to UltimateHog
quote:
And the Braves had a better record than the Cardinals at this point, and a 10.5 game lead in the WC.
i don't get how it took till the end of the second page for someone to say this.
Posted on 9/14/12 at 7:09 pm to quail man
quote:
i don't get how it took till the end of the second page for someone to say this.
Well, as a Cards fan, I was trying to wait for that perfect opportunity but it never really came so I just had to throw it in there.
But but but stats!
Posted on 9/14/12 at 10:52 pm to UltimateHog
With a win tonight the Phillies are 3.5 back (St. L ahead by one in the 5th vs LAD) and have a statistical 4.1% chance of making the playoffs, up 1.1% from yesterday.
Still more can happen tonight.
Still more can happen tonight.
Posted on 9/14/12 at 10:56 pm to KosmoCramer
Could you do me a favor and find the percentage for the Cardinals win early September last year?
I'll give you a hint, it's below 2%.
Another hint: They won the World Series.
I'll give you a hint, it's below 2%.
Another hint: They won the World Series.
Posted on 9/14/12 at 10:58 pm to UltimateHog
quote:
Could you do me a favor and find the percentage for the Cardinals win early September last year?
I'll give you a hint, it's below 2%.
Another hint: They won the World Series.
Anecdotal evidence is anecdotal.
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