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Message
re: Philles making the playoffs
Posted on 9/14/12 at 11:02 pm to KosmoCramer
Posted on 9/14/12 at 11:02 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
Anecdotal evidence is anecdotal.
Evidence is evidence, point being, statistics means jack shite in baseball.
Whoever's hot late, usually wins it.
Doesn't matter if it's the team that was 10.5 games back with a month left in the season, turn it on late, and anything can happen.
Exactly why the Phillies have a much much higher chance than 5%, using logic and how well they're playing with who they have left vs who the Cards have left, I'd say the Phillies have a 35% chance.
The Pirates are cooked and done, and the Dodgers are not looking to good in the biggest series of the year and could be 3 back within the hour.
1
Posted on 9/14/12 at 11:04 pm to UltimateHog
quote:
statistics means jack shite in baseball.
Posted on 9/14/12 at 11:06 pm to KosmoCramer
You in this thread deserve a...
Posted on 9/14/12 at 11:08 pm to UltimateHog
Baseball is the most statistically driven sport there is.
Posted on 9/14/12 at 11:12 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
Baseball is the most statistically driven sport there is.
Of course, there are 162 games and a ton of individual statistics.
Doesn't mean the team with the best record is going to win the World Series, rarely do actually.
Posted on 9/14/12 at 11:18 pm to UltimateHog
if the phillies had gotten healthier a week earlier, they would be in the playoffs, no doubt. it's going to come down to the end, and I don't think they make it. but it's going to be DAMN close. i'm hoping for a final night of baseball like we had last year 
Posted on 9/15/12 at 12:32 am to TigerTig
Sure they have a chance. It's a tight race. Crazy how much ground they have made up and the new wild card makes it all possible.
Posted on 9/15/12 at 11:57 pm to beauchristopher
With their loss today to the Astros, they have moved to a 2.6% chance to win the 2nd wild card.
But Kershaw got hurt, so there's that.
Pittsburgh, LAD, and Milwaukee all won(STL played LAD).
But Kershaw got hurt, so there's that.
Pittsburgh, LAD, and Milwaukee all won(STL played LAD).
Posted on 9/15/12 at 11:58 pm to KosmoCramer
I'll be at the game on Friday to laugh at them.
Posted on 9/17/12 at 4:47 pm to TN Bhoy
The Phillies are currently 4 games back for the 2nd wildcard after dropping two straight @ the MLB's worst team, the Houston Astros.
Currently they have a 1.1% statistical chance to make the playoffs.
Currently they have a 1.1% statistical chance to make the playoffs.
Posted on 9/17/12 at 4:50 pm to KosmoCramer
Go Lastros
Posted on 9/17/12 at 4:52 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
Currently they have a 1.1% statistical chance to make the playoffs.
I want to bet them to win the league now like that cardinals guy did. I bet the odds are great.
Posted on 9/17/12 at 9:58 pm to Brageous
With their win tonight the Phillies are a 1.5% chance to make the playoffs.
Pittsburgh is delayed, and St. Louis, Milwaukee, and LAD were off.
Pittsburgh is delayed, and St. Louis, Milwaukee, and LAD were off.
Posted on 9/17/12 at 10:19 pm to Brageous
quote:
I want to bet them to win the league now like that cardinals guy did.
I said the Phillies won't make it, unless you are talking about someone else.
I said it will come down to the final days and that the Phillies have a great shot.
Obviously, I think the Cards make it. Carpenter coming back now only makes me more positive.
Posted on 9/20/12 at 3:20 pm to UltimateHog
quote:
The Cardinals, Dodgers, and Pirates aren't going to go on some streak and seal the #2 Wild Card, they just aren't good enough. It will be a race to the final day.
The Cardinals have won 3 straight, and Milwaukee has won 4 straight.
Phillies are a 1.1% chance to make the playoffs. St. Louis is at a 69.3%.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 6:52 pm to KosmoCramer
Looks like this may be a runaway contrary to your anecdotal evidence...
The Cardinals are 3.5 up with 8 to go.
It would be sweet justice if they got bumped though
The Cardinals are 3.5 up with 8 to go.
It would be sweet justice if they got bumped though
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