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1
Posted on 12/6/19 at 11:32 pm to dcrews
quote:
For sure, but if you're LSU, there was no benefit to playing Texas.
We will play Texas in front of 103,000 next year. If it was Middle Tennessee State it would be more like 82,000. And most of them would leave at halftime. Our shitty OOC schedule was a sore point with LSU fans long before it became a playoff consideration.
Posted on 12/6/19 at 11:43 pm to sunnydaze
Oregon is easily in with their only loss to a 7-5 ASU team. Plus they have no control over their conference schedule. They chose to schedule Auburn and LSU in 2011 and both of those games eliminated them from playing for a NC.
Posted on 12/7/19 at 12:06 am to Bokke
Ironic that we're using Oregon as the example of why it's dumb to schedule tough OOC opponents when Oregon was shut out in 2001 and 2012 because their schedule wasn't as tough as the teams who qualified in those respective years.
Posted on 12/7/19 at 12:10 am to KillerNut9
quote:No
Urban's talked about this a few times in the Big Noon Kickoff show. There's too much risk and minimal reward.
Alabama starting the year with huge and dominant wins helped create their position in the game.
Big OOC wins are important.
Posted on 12/7/19 at 12:21 am to dcrews
quote:
A 1 loss Oregon that beat the committee's #5 team is getting into the playoff.
If oregon plays a cupcake week 1 instead of auburn and OU beats baylor again I think the committee would put OU in. OU would have 3 top 25 wins. What would oregon have? 1?
Posted on 12/7/19 at 12:21 am to ReauxlTide222
quote:Just so happens that the conference with the most big OOC wins is the conference with eight of the last 14 championships.
Big OOC wins are important.
Posted on 12/7/19 at 12:31 am to xiv
quote:
If LSU scheduled an FCS team in 2019, they could go undefeated and be ranked behind Ohio State.
First, I take issue with the heavy emphasis people place on the fact that LSU scheduled an FCS school instead of a bottom feeder from Louisiana that happened to be FBS, like UL-Monroe. The likelihood of either springing an upset or even being remotely competitive was near-zero. There is no meaningful difference between them for LSU's strength of schedule.
But, recognizing that the committee nonetheless places this heavy emphasis on not scheduling FCS, I don't think the solution is to pick a fight with a team that has a good chance to beat you. I think it's just to schedule shitty teams that happen to be in Power 5 conferences, especially if you're in a well-reputed conference like the Big Ten or SEC. While you can't beat your chest about a marquee out-of-conference win this way, you can point to a record against Power 5 teams that has 12 whole games on it, which is good for soundbites and gives the committee political cover to talk up your schedule, even if the substantive difference between a menu of Rutgers, Maryland, Kansas, and Georgia Tech and a menu of UL-Monroe, Middle Tennessee State, Tulsa and Hawaii for your difficulty of schedule is near-zero.
The main benefit from picking a fight with a good team is really if you both are competing for a playoff spot, so that the actual head-to-head result matters.
Posted on 12/7/19 at 12:48 am to OKBoomerSooner
quote:ULM and the 48 teams ranked below them in my rating system are a combined 43-2 vs FCS.
I take issue with the heavy emphasis people place on the fact that LSU scheduled an FCS school instead of a bottom feeder from Louisiana that happened to be FBS, like UL-Monroe.
quote:It’s meaningful enough to keep LSU out of the #1 spot.
There is no meaningful difference between them for LSU's strength of schedule.
school | winning% | opps’ w% | opps’ opps’ w%
tOSU 1.000 .603 .543
LSU 1.000 .538 .537
tOSU’s .065 advantage in ow% is significant since that category has only about a .350 variance.
quote:Scheduling a good G5 is almost always better. Just look at who’s #1.
I don't think the solution is to pick a fight with a team that has a good chance to beat you. I think it's just to schedule shitty teams that happen to be in Power 5 conferences
This post was edited on 12/7/19 at 1:13 am
Posted on 12/7/19 at 12:59 am to xiv
quote:
ULM and the 48 teams ranked below them in my rating system are a combined 43-2 vs FBS.
I assume this meant to say FCS. If so, I have severely undervalued ULM.
I don't know that a binary up/down metric like win rates captures what we're looking for here, but maybe I am looking for the wrong thing in evaluating schedules. While the ULMs of the world are obviously much better than the Northwestern States of the world, neither is a meaningful threat to beat LSU, so I don't think there should be this great gap in perception between the two. Whether that also means roasting teams for scheduling Sun Belt schools and not merely reserving the roasts for FCS teams is an open question though.
quote:
Scheduling a good G5 is almost always better. Just look at who’s #1.
I do agree with this and didn't consider it in my previous recommendation. Maybe the ideal mix is to get you a good G5 mid-major that will end up in the top 25 and then 2-3 garbage P5 teams to pad your record against P5 teams without meaningfully risking a loss.
~~~
Total aside but I don't like the fact that the approach that appears optimal to me explicitly involves not risking a loss. That does seem to go against one of the goals that people always seem to want to accomplish with these systems, which is to encourage teams to schedule big OOC games against powerful opponents. Obviously the easy answer is I'm just wrong...
Posted on 12/7/19 at 1:10 am to Mac
Oregon should be in because they scheduled better
Posted on 12/7/19 at 1:24 am to OKBoomerSooner
quote:Yep. Fixed. Thanks.
I assume this meant to say FCS.
quote:I usually don’t make my arguments the following way (I prefer quantifying my stuff with comprehensive evidence), but a bad FBS team delivers more “body blows” than an FCS team does. I can’t quantify this, but that’s the reason I disagree with you here. More body blows in week 1 means a more vulnerable roster in week 2.
While the ULMs of the world are obviously much better than the Northwestern States of the world, neither is a meaningful threat to beat LSU, so I don't think there should be this great gap in perception between the two.
quote:I’ll submit Kansas State and Baylor, both of whom are notorious for intentionally scheduling weak OOC. Each has been in “the conversation” but passed over by teams with tougher schedules.
Total aside but I don't like the fact that the approach that appears optimal to me explicitly involves not risking a loss.
I could look this up myself—maybe I will soon, but it’s getting late—but are there any teams who got into the playoff by gaming the system with “safe” OOC?
This post was edited on 12/7/19 at 1:25 am
Posted on 12/7/19 at 1:34 am to dcrews
quote:
3-9 GA TECH
7-5 TEXAS A&M
5-7 SYRACUSE
7-5 CHARLOTTE
6-6 UNC
6-6 FLORIDA STATE
7-5 LOUISVILLE
6-6 BOSTON COLLEGE
8-4 WOFFORD
4-8 NC STATE
8-4 WAKE FOREST
4-8 SOUTH CAROLINA (Signature win according to Dabo)
This is comical. I’d love to hear an argument against it.
Posted on 12/7/19 at 1:58 am to Mac
If Oregon beat Portland state instead of losing to Auburn in the first game, but still lost to ASU, they likely still aren’t getting into the CFP. Conversely, if they played and lost to Auburn the first game but beaten ASU, they likely would be in the CFP (or at least would have a better shot). So I don’t necessarily buy the premise of the OP
This post was edited on 12/7/19 at 2:02 am
Posted on 12/7/19 at 2:38 am to xiv
quote:
I usually don’t make my arguments the following way (I prefer quantifying my stuff with comprehensive evidence), but a bad FBS team delivers more “body blows” than an FCS team does. I can’t quantify this, but that’s the reason I disagree with you here. More body blows in week 1 means a more vulnerable roster in week 2.
I hate that I made it the way I did
I just don't know how to reduce that abstract intuition to something quantifiable for real analysis. If I did I could have saved us both some trouble. I didn't think about this difference so I appreciate you bringing it up, however fuzzy it might be. So basically, bad FBS teams, still being bigger and more talented than FCS teams, require elite FBS opponents to exert more effort to beat them than FCS teams do, which exacts a greater physical toll as the season progresses.
quote:
I’ll submit Kansas State and Baylor, both of whom are notorious for intentionally scheduling weak OOC. Each has been in “the conversation” but passed over by teams with tougher schedules.
I could look this up myself—maybe I will soon, but it’s getting late—but are there any teams who got into the playoff by gaming the system with “safe” OOC?
I doubt that anyone is intentionally loading up on shitty teams to maximize their playoff odds, and I wouldn't be able to prove they did it on purpose even if they were (as opposed to simply reacting to other scheduling priorities).
I figure I can achieve the same effect by showing teams that made it despite weak OOC, even if their weak OOC was unintentional, since that shows the incentive exists to go that route.
I'll cop to it, I started doing that and realized the argument is more complex than I appreciated.
It has two different angles of attack: (1) teams which had weak OOC and made it, plus (2) teams which took a loss in OOC to good teams, which but-for that loss would have made the playoff. That's a lot of subjective elements that need to be handled with care. If I remember to address this tomorrow I'll present it thenPosted on 12/7/19 at 4:59 am to Goldrush25
quote:
Exactly. Why do people dismiss the bad in-conference loss?
Are you forgetting about Georgia?
Posted on 12/7/19 at 5:30 am to Mac
If they didnt play Auburn and had the 1 loss to ASU, they’d still wouldnt be a shoe-in because the PAC 12 is weak and it’d be an argument over Oregon or the Big 12 champ. If Oregon won that Auburn game, they’d have been clearly ahead of the OU-Baylor winner for the CFP
Posted on 12/7/19 at 6:51 am to Damone
quote:
This is comical. I’d love to hear an argument against it.
I’m not sure what you’re asking exactly, but even with their pedigree and their being the defending NC, they likely would be out had they wound up losing that game to North Carolina. The argument against playing that crap schedule is that it gives you zero room for error. Clemson had to go undefeated or would have been behind all the other 1-loss conference champs (except Utah had they won last night).
I do think it Clemson is getting hosed a bit because of just how atrocious the ACC has become. They did schedule A&M and USCe, both of whom could have had 8-4/9-3 type seasons which would likely have Clemson in the conversation with OSU and LSU for the #1 seed.
And there are intangible reasons to schedule tough OOC. No matter how Texas’s season turned out (though I would posit losing to LSU had a devastating psychological effect and greatly contributed to their ultimate collapse, just as a win likely would have prevented one), that win in Austin with the 3rd and 17 undoubtedly propelled LSU’s offense to have the season they did. That’s when they—players and coaches—realized just how fricking good we could be, and that confidence was huge going forward. Confidence that wouldn’t have been gained against a ULM.
And we all know how that ‘11 Oregon opener had LSU’s attention all through the offseason and is often credited as the reason that team was so I credibly conditioned, having to prepare for the hurry up. It too, helped LSU realize just how good they could be and propelled them to probably the greatest regular season in CFB history.
Posted on 12/7/19 at 7:11 am to KillerNut9
quote:
It's only really panned out for Ohio State the year they won in Oklahoma.
LSU pounding Va Tech in 2007 got them in the title game despite two losses.
Posted on 12/7/19 at 7:48 am to xiv
quote:
2018 Ohio State
Ohio state lost by 30 to Purdue last year. Even a big OOC win isn’t going to outweigh such a bad loss.
Big OOC games can bring some good, but the committee is showing they value overall records more.
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