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re: Official Week 8 College Football Bet Thread
Posted on 10/21/15 at 2:21 pm to monsterballads
Posted on 10/21/15 at 2:21 pm to monsterballads
quote:
I got arkansas -6 at home against auburn... thoughts?
Took it at -5... like the play
Not a believer in the Auburn resurgence. Wins over SJSU and Kentucky do not mean you are back.
1
Posted on 10/21/15 at 2:21 pm to monsterballads
Your guess is as good as mine. I don't really know what to think about either of those teams. Both have shown a little more life recently, but don't know if it will continue. I guess if I were to take it I would probably go with arky
Posted on 10/21/15 at 2:25 pm to monsterballads
quote:
I got arkansas -6 at home against auburn... thoughts?
Auburn is still a fraud and matches up poorly with Arky. This game is one that Arky has had circled for a while now.
Lay them all day, seems like a relatively easy 14+ point win.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 2:48 pm to Billy Mays
also la tech -7 against MTSU... la tech gets a bunch of health players back this game including dixon the RB... I like it... anyone else?
Posted on 10/21/15 at 3:09 pm to monsterballads
I don't know what the over is but I'm taking it.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 3:20 pm to monsterballads
I took la tech
Posted on 10/21/15 at 4:03 pm to accnodefense
Is there an issue with the mizzou sheet is or this right? HAHA
Posted on 10/21/15 at 4:08 pm to PeteRose
quote:
Ark St -7
Ark St -1/2 1Q
adding
Over UCLA 76.5
Posted on 10/21/15 at 4:21 pm to PeteRose
First play of the week ECU -2.5 (-125).
Outgained Temple 4-1 in yards last year but turned the ball over 5 times in he rain. Temple in a look ahead spot to ND. ECU is much more battle tested.
Outgained Temple 4-1 in yards last year but turned the ball over 5 times in he rain. Temple in a look ahead spot to ND. ECU is much more battle tested.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 4:32 pm to Zipfer2022
Good luck, Zip. I'm rolling with Temple. They've been good against the spread this year. Didn't cover last week due to tons of turnovers themselves.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 5:00 pm to bamaatlsu
quote:
Good luck, Zip. I'm rolling with Temple. They've been good against the spread this year. Didn't cover last week due to tons of turnovers themselves.
I am on ECU... Temple is due for a loss. Yes they were impressive against Penn State but since then they haven't been impressive. Did not look good vs. UMASS and UCF. Offensively they have problems.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 5:03 pm to thibtigerfan
quote:
Is there an issue with the mizzou sheet is or this right? HAHA
A little bit of both. The math is sound. Problem its that its two top 5 defenses against two shite tier offenses. So the offensive points per drive expectation and offensive touchdown probability for both teams is so low that it doesn't register.
But I mentioned earlier that "Method 5" has a minor issue with how touchdown and field goal probability is calculated. I doubt it would make much of a difference though. Maybe add a point or two to each team's Method 5 projection.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 5:16 pm to accnodefense
quote:
Yup - the half point hook confirms this. Even though Utah is getting 2/3 of the wagers.
This is good sports betting logic, but it doesn't really guarantee anything. Look no further than that ridiculous Mich line last week. They wanted everyone on Sparty, and thats exactly what happened. But MSU covered even before the punt fiasco.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 5:18 pm to bayoucracka
quote:
This is good sports betting logic, but it doesn't really guarantee anything. Look no further than that ridiculous Mich line last week. They wanted everyone on Sparty, and thats exactly what happened. But MSU covered even before the punt fiasco.
You are correct, but I still think its +EV in the long run.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 5:30 pm to accnodefense
Majority of the pub (56%) on Temp. Line has barely moved. Will play ECU if it becomes a play tomorrow
Posted on 10/21/15 at 6:02 pm to TheOcean
quote:
Here's a look at a quartet of potential college football playoff matchups with hypothetical lines provided by the team at BookMaker.
Ohio St (-5.5) vs. Utah
Baylor (-8) vs. LSU
TCU (-7) vs. Michigan St
Alabama (-8.5) vs. Clemson
I would bet my entire account on LSU getting 8 points against Baylor.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 6:18 pm to Zipfer2022
quote:
Here's a look at a quartet of potential college football playoff matchups with hypothetical lines provided by the team at BookMaker.
I always have an issue when someone tweets out/blogs/writes an article about these "hypothetical" lines
Who created the hypothetical lines? The originators and consultants at the said book? The book manager? Some random employee at the book?
I honestly think they are a gimmick just for publicity and retweets. Touts, for example, love to tweet out hypothetical lines to give them credibility as if they have inside info.
This post was edited on 10/21/15 at 6:19 pm
Posted on 10/21/15 at 8:02 pm to Zipfer2022
quote:
Ohio St (-3.5) vs. Utah
Baylor (-2.5) vs. LSU
TCU (-8) vs. Michigan St
Alabama (-4.5) vs. Clemson
IMO
Posted on 10/21/15 at 8:05 pm to maclauer
leaning K State +4.5 and ML hard
Posted on 10/21/15 at 8:52 pm to Zipfer2022
quote:
Baylor (-8) vs. LSU
Crazy thing is... assuming this a neutral field prediction, that would put Baylor about -11 at home vs LSU lol.
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