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Message
re: OFFICIAL Week 5 CFB bet thread™
Posted on 9/30/12 at 2:50 am to bamafan425
Posted on 9/30/12 at 2:50 am to bamafan425
Did some tallying and it looks like system went 17-18-2.
9-9-1 on totals.
8-9-1 on sides.
Haven't looked at the breakdown of key numbers.
Though I didn't tally the games that landed on 10. It spit out no play, but maybe some of ya'll played it. We can do some more research.
Also its late, I coulda tallied wrong.
9-9-1 on totals.
8-9-1 on sides.
Haven't looked at the breakdown of key numbers.
Though I didn't tally the games that landed on 10. It spit out no play, but maybe some of ya'll played it. We can do some more research.
Also its late, I coulda tallied wrong.
This post was edited on 9/30/12 at 2:59 am
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Posted on 9/30/12 at 3:34 am to bamafan425
What is a unit to you guys?
1 unit = $110?
1 unit = $110?
Posted on 9/30/12 at 8:15 am to TigerTatorTots
Does anyone know if RAS releases their sides on the same day each week, and if so which day? I like to look at pick percentages and I'm wondering if their release may be skewing the numbers.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 8:35 am to bamafan425
Thanks for the changes Bama.
Curious to continue to follow this thing for a couple more seasons...
Curious to continue to follow this thing for a couple more seasons...
Posted on 9/30/12 at 9:49 am to bamafan425
That "simple" tab is badass. I'm assuming it will feed from the info input on the original tab.
Nice work.
Nice work.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 9:58 am to dcrews
Yeah it pulls the info from the mathematical sheet. So it's automated. So now we just need to make sure we have a few editing and double checking the numbers. The majority can just watch the simple tab.
We can keep working on the aesthetics. Added alternating row colors to make it easier to follow. Any color ideas let me know.
We can keep working on the aesthetics. Added alternating row colors to make it easier to follow. Any color ideas let me know.
This post was edited on 9/30/12 at 10:01 am
Posted on 9/30/12 at 10:02 am to bamafan425
At first glance, I have no idea what the color coding demonstrates.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 10:12 am to Louie T
For which part?
The shades in the difference column are the confidence. Higher difference, higher condfidence.
The shades in the difference column are the confidence. Higher difference, higher condfidence.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 10:15 am to bamafan425
What does the -32.5 represent in AUTO:Total Difference for the WVU game? Is 32.5 your O/U cap for the 2nd half when the O/U line was 46.5?
Posted on 9/30/12 at 10:16 am to Louie T
The colors that go from light green to blue, reflect the confidence the system has in the bet winning.
For example if you look at the CFB spreadsheet, you will see for the Army/Stony Brook game, that the system is extremely confident in playing the Dog for the 2nd half.
On the other hand, for the NW/Indiana game, the system is not quite as confident in playing the under for the 2nd half.
This was a tweak that either bamafan or cowbells (or both) incorporated into the system. To my knowledge it may need to be revamped slightly, but I could be wrong.
Know this, the original system suggests you make a play at any difference GREATER THAN 10.
For example if you look at the CFB spreadsheet, you will see for the Army/Stony Brook game, that the system is extremely confident in playing the Dog for the 2nd half.
On the other hand, for the NW/Indiana game, the system is not quite as confident in playing the under for the 2nd half.
This was a tweak that either bamafan or cowbells (or both) incorporated into the system. To my knowledge it may need to be revamped slightly, but I could be wrong.
Know this, the original system suggests you make a play at any difference GREATER THAN 10.
This post was edited on 9/30/12 at 10:19 am
Posted on 9/30/12 at 10:18 am to dcrews
I obviously understand that it shows confidence. I can't correlate the numbers into confidences.
This post was edited on 9/30/12 at 10:18 am
Posted on 9/30/12 at 10:19 am to Louie T
My bad 
Basically, if the difference is less than 10, than the system suggests a NO PLAY. So it stands to reason, the larger the number after 10, the better the bet becomes.
Basically, if the difference is less than 10, than the system suggests a NO PLAY. So it stands to reason, the larger the number after 10, the better the bet becomes.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 10:23 am to dcrews
Got that also
Guess I'm thinking more along the lines of what the columns mean. What does the -30.5 in the blue box for the UGA game mean?
Guess I'm thinking more along the lines of what the columns mean. What does the -30.5 in the blue box for the UGA game mean?
Posted on 9/30/12 at 10:24 am to dcrews
The way I look at it is, if the first half number is further off from what the half time number should be then it's more likely to continue that way.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 10:26 am to Louie T
Means play the over with a high level of confidence.
The first half was WAY more high scoring than the books predicted. So the system (while it may not always be true) thinks that it will continue that way and hit the 2nd half over.
NEGATIVE #'s above 10 equal play OVER or play DOG.
POSITIVE #'s above 10 equal play UNDER or play FAV.
That said, I might take out the color scaled confidence system. It might be too much for the eyes. Should be able to look at the difference and see that if it's higher, it's better (for the most part, Cowbells has some interesting stats he's gonna keep researching).
The first half was WAY more high scoring than the books predicted. So the system (while it may not always be true) thinks that it will continue that way and hit the 2nd half over.
NEGATIVE #'s above 10 equal play OVER or play DOG.
POSITIVE #'s above 10 equal play UNDER or play FAV.
That said, I might take out the color scaled confidence system. It might be too much for the eyes. Should be able to look at the difference and see that if it's higher, it's better (for the most part, Cowbells has some interesting stats he's gonna keep researching).
This post was edited on 9/30/12 at 10:27 am
Posted on 9/30/12 at 10:29 am to bamafan425
So that 30.5 number represents solely a confidence level? It has nothing to do with spreads or an O/U total?
Posted on 9/30/12 at 10:32 am to Louie T
Simple answer, no.
It doesn't mean take the O/U at this number or this number should be that.
Here's how you get it for totals:
Initial Total (O/U prior to kickoff, closing line)
minus
1st Half Total
minus
2nd Half Total Released by Books < What you bet on obviously.
So for UGA-Tennessee.
60 (Closing Line) - 60 (1H Total) - 30.5 (2H Total ) = -30.5
It doesn't mean take the O/U at this number or this number should be that.
Here's how you get it for totals:
Initial Total (O/U prior to kickoff, closing line)
minus
1st Half Total
minus
2nd Half Total Released by Books < What you bet on obviously.
So for UGA-Tennessee.
60 (Closing Line) - 60 (1H Total) - 30.5 (2H Total ) = -30.5
This post was edited on 9/30/12 at 10:35 am
Posted on 9/30/12 at 10:33 am to Louie T
That number comes from calculations based off of the original spreads and the 1st half scores, but as far as what numbers you should bet for the 2nd half, no, it has nothing to do with spreads or totals.
It isn't a cap or a suggested line/total.
It isn't a cap or a suggested line/total.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 10:38 am to dcrews
quote:Gotcha. Looked at it yesterday with that assumption in mind so I couldn't figure out what was going on beyond "play this" or "play that"
It isn't a cap or a suggested line/total.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 10:42 am to Louie T
Hopefully we'll all be more familiar with the system/spreadsheet next week.
I added two columns to the simple look to include the 2H total and 2H spread for reference as to what number we were using.
I added two columns to the simple look to include the 2H total and 2H spread for reference as to what number we were using.
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