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re: OFFICIAL Week 2 College Football Bet Thread (The Digging Dog is back edition)
Posted on 9/11/15 at 6:05 am to HoLeInOnEr05
Posted on 9/11/15 at 6:05 am to HoLeInOnEr05
Won my money back plus some taking Over 16.5 in the 3rd Q after betting on Tech -1. I don't think I have ever seen a college football game with such poor tackling. I wouldn't bat an eye if someone told me that was the first time both of those defenses had ever played together. The fat guy with diabetes in the anti smoking campaign would have had more success wrapping people up.
0
Posted on 9/11/15 at 6:23 am to DallasTiger45
quote:
Bobby, why do you lay -500 semi-regularly? Have you actually found that to be profitable?
Does Bobby lay -500 too? Is Bobby still around?
SystemsGo, me, looks at an ML in the same way as any. If they played five times, would Houston win one?
And, yes, I have found ML bets to be profitable, though I came out on the losing end last season. My first year of dabbling in this stuff was 2008, and I'm comfortably up on my "gambling career".
Part of the reason is that I'm in an underdog league, and I tend to do that analysis first, and that really nicely, but inadvertently, crystallizes the teams that I believe have a very small chance of winning the game. I like looking at both sides of that coin. Which dogs may win outright? Which have a snowball's chance in hell.
So, just a play I like, I suppose. And it isn't inherently more risky than a smaller number. Risk is magnitude of hit times likelihood of hit. A huge ML can be the safest play you'll ever make.
Posted on 9/11/15 at 6:29 am to DallasTiger45
quote:
Bobby, why do you lay -500 semi-regularly? Have you actually found that to be profitable?
And, yes, I (systemsgo) do tend to like the MLs for games where the spreads are in that 11-14ish range. I have a lot of data on that stolen from Stassen and Steel and put into excel and prettily graphed, but, honestly, you're not gonna find a single number where the corresponding ML is like mathematically off. Vegas isn't Corky from Life Goes On.
So perhaps I gravitate to that range of numbers just because I tend to have success with that same range on the flipside in picking dogs (and I have).
Posted on 9/11/15 at 6:30 am to SystemsGo
Haaaaaay Bobbayyy!
Posted on 9/11/15 at 6:37 am to blades8088
Weird how people see "SystemsGo" and read "Bobby".
Not even anagrams. So puzzling. Oh, and I think I did a pun there. It wasn't intended.
Not even anagrams. So puzzling. Oh, and I think I did a pun there. It wasn't intended.
Posted on 9/11/15 at 6:45 am to SystemsGo
Aren't you the guy that posted once about how you don't lose because you put low sums of money on absurdly advantageous moneylines? Like a $15 bet on Mayweather ML?
and you type like a robot FYI
and you type like a robot FYI
This post was edited on 9/11/15 at 6:45 am
Posted on 9/11/15 at 6:47 am to rawDAWG333
Went with the Utes 1H -6.5 for a unit .may take the under too
Posted on 9/11/15 at 6:52 am to rocket31
quote:
i dont think you got the best value on that virgina line.
Had the chance to get it at 12 but 11.5 should be good still... I think it could finish 10/10.5 most places.
Posted on 9/11/15 at 7:44 am to maclauer
No 
Those were accnodefense teams where all his methods agreed on the same team.
I'm just using that as a tool when decide what teams to bet on and if I'm on the fence about a certain team. I usually only bet 3-5 games a weekend.
Those were accnodefense teams where all his methods agreed on the same team.
I'm just using that as a tool when decide what teams to bet on and if I'm on the fence about a certain team. I usually only bet 3-5 games a weekend.
Posted on 9/11/15 at 8:48 am to SystemsGo
Why do you create so many alters, Bobby?
Posted on 9/11/15 at 8:53 am to HoLeInOnEr05
Does anyone use Bovada in here?
If so, how come the money lines aren't showing up for me?
TIA
If so, how come the money lines aren't showing up for me?
TIA
Posted on 9/11/15 at 8:59 am to SystemsGo
quote:
SystemsGo
Any good tennis plays to throw a $20 free play on? Wawrinka +280?
Posted on 9/11/15 at 9:24 am to Carson123987
Cilic at 6-1 has just as good a shot as Wawrinka at 3-1, IMO.
Posted on 9/11/15 at 9:36 am to SystemsGo
We discussed this before, but I like the high ML as well. Did it with Alabama last week at -550. I like to choose from the teams favored by 10-17, just have to make sure it's not a dumb pick. Only one I've lost was S. Carolina home opener vs. A&M last year. Had a huge scare a few years ago on a Va Tech Fla St Thursday night game.
Posted on 9/11/15 at 9:53 am to jac1280
quote:
Does anyone use Bovada in here?
If so, how come the money lines aren't showing up for me?
I do. Bovada is notoriously late with money lines. It's extremely frustrating.
Posted on 9/11/15 at 10:00 am to LSUJuice
How much are you betting on these high ML's?
Posted on 9/11/15 at 10:04 am to Ed Osteen
damn, took WKU + over last night.
singled both and parlayed it.
that's what you call a great start to a weekend.
singled both and parlayed it.
that's what you call a great start to a weekend.
Posted on 9/11/15 at 10:12 am to The Egg
Mizzou -10 at Ark St, am I missing something here? Keep looking at lines to find my two or three teams and this keeps jumping out at me.
Posted on 9/11/15 at 10:16 am to geauxtigs99
Utah State +12 (-101) tonight. 10% ML sprinkle on the +400.
Posted on 9/11/15 at 10:28 am to Ed Osteen
Enough to win 1 unit, which for me is $30. I don't normally play large ML favorites until later in the season. Later in the season I'm typically playing fewer games, so that opens up bankroll to be used on MLs. Alabama last week was an anomaly, but I felt pretty safe with it.
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