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re: OFFICIAL Week 2 College Football Bet Thread (The Digging Dog is back edition)
Posted on 9/11/15 at 10:33 am to LSUJuice
Posted on 9/11/15 at 10:33 am to LSUJuice
quote:
Enough to win 1 unit, which for me is $30. I don't normally play large ML favorites until later in the season. Later in the season I'm typically playing fewer games, so that opens up bankroll to be used on MLs. Alabama last week was an anomaly, but I felt pretty safe with it.
Here is my question
What are you using to calculate if you are getting any value playing the high moneylines?
If the Houston/Louisville ML is currently +450/-600 that means the ML odds for that is 85.7% for Louisville and 18.1% for Houston.
I use two methods to calculate win percentage and Method 1(Simple Log5) is 27.4% Houston and 73.7% Louisville. Method 2(1000 Simulations) is 18% Houston 78.5% Louisville.
Both of my methods you are getting zero value on the Louisville line at -600 so in the long run it would be -EV.
Same with the Notre Dame line... I am seeing ND -550 and Virginia +400. Translates to ND 84.6% and Virginia 20%. My system's Method 1 is ND 61.2% and Virginia 38.8%, and Method 2 is 68.7% and Virginia 29%. Again no value on the ND Money Line at -550 and Virginia has some value on theirs.
1
Posted on 9/11/15 at 10:44 am to accnodefense
I don't. I know where you're going with that, and I like those analytics in picking sides. But my ML plays are different. It's all in the intangibles and picking the right spots. Maybe that's just the amateur in me. And perhaps I've been lucky with the small sample size so far (probably a couple dozen ML bets like that in 3 years, with only 1 loss). Maybe I'll regress to the mean at some point and the value (or lack thereof) will catch up with me.
Posted on 9/11/15 at 10:48 am to LSUJuice
quote:
I don't. I know where you're going with that, and I like those analytics in picking sides. But my ML plays are different. It's all in the intangibles and picking the right spots. Maybe that's just the amateur in me. And perhaps I've been lucky with the small sample size so far (probably a couple dozen ML bets like that in 3 years, with only 1 loss). Maybe I'll regress to the mean at some point and the value (or lack thereof) will catch up with me.
The juice usually makes moneyline favorites unbettable, IMO. A fair line heavy favorite + 10% juice pretty much ensures you won't get value on them in most cases.
We had a poster last week who played the UCF money line.
Posted on 9/11/15 at 10:49 am to LSUJuice
I wouldn't say that you can't be profitable betting those big favorites on intangibles, but you will have to stay disciplined. Good luck brotha.
Posted on 9/11/15 at 11:19 am to DallasTiger45
After a couple scares when I first started, I'm more disciplined now. The only time I'm not is when I pick Alabama, because if I lose, then frick yeah Alabama lost too.
Anyway... I think I'll tail some of y'all on Utah St. tonight so I have some interest. And I really wanted to take Rice, but now I'm kind of leaning towards overreaction on Texas looking so bad. Will probably just stay away.
Anyway... I think I'll tail some of y'all on Utah St. tonight so I have some interest. And I really wanted to take Rice, but now I'm kind of leaning towards overreaction on Texas looking so bad. Will probably just stay away.
This post was edited on 9/11/15 at 11:22 am
Posted on 9/11/15 at 12:02 pm to oleyeller
Week 2 Card:
UConn -7
Mizzou -14
Virginia +13
UConn -7
Mizzou -14
Virginia +13
Posted on 9/11/15 at 12:05 pm to maclauer
quote:
Utah State +12 (-101) tonight. 10% ML sprinkle on the +400.
same
Posted on 9/11/15 at 12:32 pm to Benny The Jet
quote:
Mizzou -14
Jesus... chasing team with that one considering it was at -10.5 yesterday.
Posted on 9/11/15 at 12:40 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
Had the chance to get it at 12 but 11.5 should be good still... I think it could finish 10/10.5 most places
idk man, its 12.5 now and i can see it going to 13.
i just think there are better games to play on the board, but i tend to avoid large swinging lines that move up and down
gl tho
This post was edited on 9/11/15 at 12:42 pm
Posted on 9/11/15 at 12:44 pm to LSUJuice
Texas may be a nice play given the overreaction
Posted on 9/11/15 at 12:57 pm to Benny The Jet
Where is Mizzou-14? I see 11s across the board
Posted on 9/11/15 at 12:58 pm to rocket31
Rocket, email me
This post was edited on 9/11/15 at 4:32 pm
Posted on 9/11/15 at 12:59 pm to Carson123987
I cant get behind the Utah St play. I see too easy the Utes walking a mudhole on that arse. Like 27-6. ill stick with the 1H and try and get another read at the half
Posted on 9/11/15 at 1:01 pm to rocket31
Dipped to 11, still at 11.5 at my book. I'm sure 13.5 will pop up at some offshores I guess. I don't have access to those.
Posted on 9/11/15 at 1:43 pm to ChemE in the OP
Mizzou is at -10 1/2 in my book. What's the overall consensus on this game? Seems low
Posted on 9/11/15 at 1:54 pm to Howyouluhdat
Just called Bovada and they said they only offer MLs if the spread is between 3 and 10 points. And if it's exactly 3 or 10 points, the juice has to be at -110 for them to offer a ML.
Pretty smart on their part to have that rule.
Pretty smart on their part to have that rule.
Posted on 9/11/15 at 2:01 pm to jac1280
quote:
Pretty smart on their part to have that rule
Yeah, but absolutely terrible for the gambler. Many other options out there instead of being stuck with that.
Posted on 9/11/15 at 2:10 pm to PillPusher
Scott Van Pelt seems to be taking a lot of sides most of us are
Posted on 9/11/15 at 2:16 pm to PillPusher
Yeah, I will be switching to 5dimes. I was stuck taking WKU +2 last night, because Bovada didn't have the ML. 
Posted on 9/11/15 at 2:25 pm to jac1280
Alright thread... I use a local, have never bet online because I always have thought it is difficult to get going because you have to send in documentation and shite
Are there any betting sites where you can simply sign up and make a deposit and get going? I have a Visa debit card and MasterCard Credit card.
Using a local has its advantages but times I want to make last second plays its difficult, plus I am not always a fan of his lines
Are there any betting sites where you can simply sign up and make a deposit and get going? I have a Visa debit card and MasterCard Credit card.
Using a local has its advantages but times I want to make last second plays its difficult, plus I am not always a fan of his lines
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