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Posted on 9/16/13 at 11:06 pm to bamafan425
quote:
I just don't see value in teasing high spreads like that. Especially teasing the favorite.
Or taking a teaser on small favorites. A team favored by 6 points will usually have a ML of about -240. And, historically, a 66.7% chance of winning the game.
Chances of both favorites winning: 44%
Chances of both favorites losing: 11%
Chances of one fav winning one fav losing; 45%
Let's compare doing a teaser play vs. taking both teams on the ML. In both examples below we're risking $480
If you do the teaser, two scenarios:
Win $436, lose $480.
436* .44 - 480*.56 = -76.8
If you take both on the ML, you've got three scenarios:
Both win: you win $200
Both lose: you lose 480
they split: you lose 140
200*.44 - .11*480 - 140*.55 = -41.8
So taking both on the ML is the better play.
This post was edited on 9/16/13 at 11:08 pm
Posted on 9/16/13 at 11:07 pm to bobbyray21
yeah but you dont have to risk as much money
I agree with you just pointing out the other side of it
I agree with you just pointing out the other side of it
Posted on 9/16/13 at 11:09 pm to wish i was tebow
quote:
I agree with you just pointing out the other side of it
True.
Posted on 9/16/13 at 11:19 pm to bobbyray21
I'll take a teaser on small favorites over larger favorites everyday.
Posted on 9/16/13 at 11:21 pm to bamafan425
I only do teasers for fun.
do a random 5 team or something
do a random 5 team or something
Posted on 9/16/13 at 11:22 pm to wish i was tebow
quote:
I only do teasers for fun.
do a random 5 team or something
I prefer parlays for my kicks and giggles.
Posted on 9/16/13 at 11:29 pm to bobbyray21
I mean I dont really do either.
but yeah I have been known to do a dumb parlay from time to time
only done 1 parlay this year and it was LSU bama Opening week. Wasnt for kicks. It was actaully a really big play of mine
but yeah I have been known to do a dumb parlay from time to time
only done 1 parlay this year and it was LSU bama Opening week. Wasnt for kicks. It was actaully a really big play of mine
Posted on 9/16/13 at 11:31 pm to bobbyray21
quote:
Or taking a teaser on small favorites. A team favored by 6 points will usually have a ML of about -240. And, historically, a 66.7% chance of winning the game.
Chances of both favorites winning: 44%
Chances of both favorites losing: 11%
Chances of one fav winning one fav losing; 45%
Let's compare doing a teaser play vs. taking both teams on the ML. In both examples below we're risking $480
If you do the teaser, two scenarios:
Win $436, lose $480.
436* .44 - 480*.56 = -76.8
If you take both on the ML, you've got three scenarios:
Both win: you win $200
Both lose: you lose 480
they split: you lose 140
200*.44 - .11*480 - 140*.55 = -41.8
So taking both on the ML is the better play.
Third option, and ML parlay. All things same as above. Risky 480 on an ML parlay would payout 483
483*.44 -480*.56 = -56.3
So while not as good an option mathematically as just taking both teams individually on the ML, it strikes a balance between that and not putting as much in play if you don't want to.
Posted on 9/17/13 at 12:12 am to bobbyray21
Tennessee is all the way up to getting 17.5
I liked that play at 14.5
Can Florida even score 18 points against an SEC defense?
I liked that play at 14.5
Can Florida even score 18 points against an SEC defense?
This post was edited on 9/17/13 at 12:13 am
Posted on 9/17/13 at 12:15 am to The Boat
an SEC defense that just gave up about 70 points?
Posted on 9/17/13 at 12:17 am to quail man
quote:
an SEC defense that just gave up about 70 points?
It's freaking OREGON in Autzen Stadium. There isn't a damn team in the SEC that could have stopped Oregon from scoring 59. Hell, Bama allowed near that to Texas A&M.
Posted on 9/17/13 at 12:18 am to quail man
Tennessee was brook trouting all over the field at Oregon. You can toss that game out.
Posted on 9/17/13 at 12:20 am to quail man
One glaring difference for Tennessee's defense this game compared to last game.
Oregon's O > Mississippi School for Deaf and Blind's O > Florida's O
Oregon's O > Mississippi School for Deaf and Blind's O > Florida's O
Posted on 9/17/13 at 12:25 am to bamafan425
No way Georgia covers 32.5 agaisnt North Texas the week before LSU. North Texas isn't as bad as they used to be.
Posted on 9/17/13 at 8:43 am to quail man
quote:
an SEC defense that just gave up about 70 points?
I can't even think of a proper analogy to do justice the difference between Oregon's offense and Florida's. The gap is wider than your ex-girlfriend's...
Well let's just say it's pretty wide. I honestly think that Oregon can drop 50+ on any team in the country. A week ago I would have qualified that statement by listing Bama and maybe LSU as exceptions, but after what TAMU did to to Bama, I have no reason to believe Oregon couldn't do that plus a little extra.
Posted on 9/17/13 at 8:45 am to The Boat
quote:
No way Georgia covers 32.5 agaisnt North Texas the week before LSU. North Texas isn't as bad as they used to be.
I concur.
North Texas is actually pretty solid. That Ball State team that just beat isn't bad at all.
Posted on 9/17/13 at 8:49 am to bobbyray21
Still waiting on Bookmaker to post lines on CMU/Toledo and Nevada/Hawaii.
Posted on 9/17/13 at 8:50 am to The Boat
quote:
Can Florida even score 18 points against an SEC defense?
They scored 24 at home against the 5th best team in the MAC.
Posted on 9/17/13 at 9:12 am to LSUAlum2001
I like Colorado State +40 vs. Bama. My favorite play of the week.
Saban never wants to embarrass his old assistants. His old buddy McElwain is in his 1st year @ CSU. Bama coming off an emotional win vs. TAMU, Ole Miss coming to town next week. This will be vanilla Bama football and CSU isn't terrible.
Colorado State +40 (4 units)
UCLA -41.5 vs. NMSU (1 unit)
Duke + 4 vs Pitt (1 unit)
Saban never wants to embarrass his old assistants. His old buddy McElwain is in his 1st year @ CSU. Bama coming off an emotional win vs. TAMU, Ole Miss coming to town next week. This will be vanilla Bama football and CSU isn't terrible.
Colorado State +40 (4 units)
UCLA -41.5 vs. NMSU (1 unit)
Duke + 4 vs Pitt (1 unit)
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