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Started By
Message
re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 3
Posted on 9/11/13 at 9:36 pm to Zipfer2022
Posted on 9/11/13 at 9:36 pm to Zipfer2022
quote:
bama -1.5 atlanta falcons -1.5 at home vs st. louis
I jumped all over that. I changed it up a bit to pay a bit more juice but make it -1/2 Alabama and -1/2 Falcons. Basically a pick 'em both ways and put 2 units on it. I like that bet alot!
1
Posted on 9/11/13 at 9:40 pm to supadave3
Well just hit a three team parlay in baseball, time to play some games tomorrow . 
Posted on 9/11/13 at 11:01 pm to UnluckyTiger
..added:
Ohio State -14.5 earlier today
Line is now -16.
Ohio State -14.5 earlier today
Line is now -16.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 11:09 pm to LSUAlum2001
I mean thats pretty much the same thing
Posted on 9/12/13 at 1:00 am to Jwodie
quote:
C'mon man. - Chris Carter ETA: Cris* Carter because the idiot decided to remove the "H" from this first name.
I dont think UK wins, but I think its close, real close. UK is putting in all their chips on this game....this will be the first time UL will be challenged and its on the road...its just my opinion. And I didnt say I was going to bet on the spread....just in case I am teasing that effing line up a little.
Posted on 9/12/13 at 1:15 am to Joe Mantegna
quote:
UK is putting in all their chips on this game....
Kentucky's chips suck.
Posted on 9/12/13 at 2:15 am to dgtiger3
quote:
Fair question. I do use yards per play. I have an algorithm I designed in excel that weights yards per play for every team running and throwing on both sides of the ball. I then adjust them according to who they have played against . It's been a pretty beneficial resource for me, I know there are websites like football outsiders with similar data, but I like to understand what I'm looking at inside out, so I build them myself.
Yeah, the way I've done it is more rudimentary. I've never figured out how to factor in SOS in excel in such a way that the SOS component is computed automatically. In other words, I'm sure you've heard of the "Simple Rating System" SRS, which simply takes scoring differential, weights it with SOS and arrives at a pretty decent ranking. Well, that SOS component (after a few weeks so the teams can get connected) is created on its own through the scores themselves. And each team is then ranked as a percentage that indicates how much better that team is than the average team.
All that is really intuitive and I understand how it works but I have no idea how to implement it myself. So I just grab hte YPP differential numbers, steal SOS numbers from someboyd else (like Sagarain or SRS or whoever), normalize them so the median SOS is 1 and every other SOS number is a percentage from that, and then multiply the YPP differential numbers by my SOS percentile numbmers. It's far from elegant.
Might I be able to obtain a copy of your excel file?
I wouldn't need to do any of this stuff if Bill Connelly's S/P numbers didn't include an "on schedule" component. His PPP numbers are all you need. I don't know how much you look at his stuff, but his points per plaay is basically a modified yards per play such that each yard counts more as the offense moves further down the field. Which makes complete fricking sense in that an offense has to be able to score in the red zone or it isn't worth it's weight in dogshit. If he just put out straight up PPP numbers, I'd take those and be done with it.
Posted on 9/12/13 at 2:22 am to Captain Ron
quote:
Two 1 yard runs followed by a 5 yard slant route that goes 78 due to bad tackling would skew a YPP analysis.
What do you mean "skews"? The whole point of football is move the ball down the field. Any coach in the world would score in one play if they had the personnel to make it happen.
In other words, what you just described is Justin Blackmon at Okie State.
Posted on 9/12/13 at 2:26 am to JPLSU1981
quote:
Unlike most, I don't like the Louisville game...I think UK keeps it close, and wouldn't be shocked if UK wins the game straight up.
You were doing okay until that last part.
Posted on 9/12/13 at 2:32 am to Zipfer2022
quote:
The question is how much has Louisville's team improved. They haven't played anyone. Everyone knows Bridgewater is the real deal. I'd lay the points if I bet it, but there is an argument to be made for UK.
I went into last season thinking Louisville was going to be a team I could ride all year. Didn't happen. They couldn't cover a goddamn spread to save themselves and they were painful to watch. Here Charlie Strong has the most accurate passer in the country and he's trying to fricking play power, alabama, grind you out style football. All this resulted in was Bridgewater getting loads of chances to convert on like 3rd and 11, and Louisville keepign all of their opponents in the game for the entirety of the game.
That being said, I think Strong may have taken the training wheels off Teddy B this year. It appears that he's actually playing to his strength offensively rather than trying to play like Nick Saban but without Nick Saban personnel. Which could result in more scoring, which could accumulate quickly.
Posted on 9/12/13 at 2:33 am to bobbyray21
But I bet with a guy and he uses the lines from scoresandodds and doesn't take plays until two days prior to the games. And UL is now -15.5 on scores and odds.
15.5 just doesn't give me a big boner. I may leave it alone.
15.5 just doesn't give me a big boner. I may leave it alone.
Posted on 9/12/13 at 7:43 am to bobbyray21
Going big on TCU tonight
They are the better team and it will show.
They are the better team and it will show.
Posted on 9/12/13 at 7:45 am to bobbyray21
quote:
Yeah, the way I've done it is more rudimentary. I've never figured out how to factor in SOS in excel in such a way that the SOS component is computed automatically. In other words, I'm sure you've heard of the "Simple Rating System" SRS, which simply takes scoring differential, weights it with SOS and arrives at a pretty decent ranking. Well, that SOS component (after a few weeks so the teams can get connected) is created on its own through the scores themselves. And each team is then ranked as a percentage that indicates how much better that team is than the average team.
All that is really intuitive and I understand how it works but I have no idea how to implement it myself. So I just grab hte YPP differential numbers, steal SOS numbers from someboyd else (like Sagarain or SRS or whoever), normalize them so the median SOS is 1 and every other SOS number is a percentage from that, and then multiply the YPP differential numbers by my SOS percentile numbmers. It's far from elegant.
Might I be able to obtain a copy of your excel file? I wouldn't need to do any of this stuff if Bill Connelly's S/P numbers didn't include an "on schedule" component. His PPP numbers are all you need. I don't know how much you look at his stuff, but his points per plaay is basically a modified yards per play such that each yard counts more as the offense moves further down the field.
Which makes complete fricking sense in that an offense has to be able to score in the red zone or it isn't worth it's weight in dog shite. If he just put out straight up PPP numbers, I'd take those and be done with it.
For advance stats for gambling purposes, I use this site, I feel that it is the most complete and transparent:
LINK
It's not that useful yet since it is only 2 games into the season, but as the season progresses the data will be more and more useful. Look at the 2012 data for what to expect.
Posted on 9/12/13 at 7:48 am to goldennugget
Might throw some money on TCU -1.5 in first half.
Posted on 9/12/13 at 7:50 am to goldennugget
Best thing TCU has going for them is Pachall is out of the way, offense operates much better with Boykin in there.
Posted on 9/12/13 at 9:47 am to Cosmo
quote:
Might throw some money on TCU -1.5 in first half.
If anything I'd take TCU in the second half given they're on the road. I want to take TCU but that TT air raid offense is scary and can put up pernts in a hurry.
Posted on 9/12/13 at 9:50 am to Jwodie
To be fair, we don't know if TTech's offense is any good or not. The air raid is legendary for putting up points against SMU and SFAustin then flopping against better defenses.
Posted on 9/12/13 at 9:59 am to ChemE in the OP
Isn't the 4-2-5 defense that TCU runs supposed to be effective against offenses that like to spread the field?
I haven't looked at anything about this game, so it's a no play for me.
Gonna look at the game total(s) for tOSU/Cal when I go to lunch.
I haven't looked at anything about this game, so it's a no play for me.
Gonna look at the game total(s) for tOSU/Cal when I go to lunch.
Posted on 9/12/13 at 10:09 am to ChemE in the OP
This is true, just seems that TT has the "x-factors" in their favor tonight. That said, I'll probably still play TCU.
Posted on 9/12/13 at 11:08 am to Jwodie
quote:
Isn't the 4-2-5 defense that TCU runs supposed to be effective against offenses that like to spread the field?
Theoretically yes. It has worked well against Baylor but at times we have burned them with it.
I'm leaning Tech tonight but I won't play. Might live bet it though if I see something I like. I have been having a lot of success live betting lately.
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