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Started By
Message
re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 3
Posted on 9/11/13 at 3:19 pm to JPLSU1981
Posted on 9/11/13 at 3:19 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
Unlike most, I don't like the Louisville game...I think UK keeps it close, and wouldn't be shocked if UK wins the game straight up.
Anytime I see a play like this that jumps out at everyone I like to do some digging to see if I can develop an argument for the other side, Kentucky in this instance.
Here is what I have...
The spread was Louisville -14 last year at UL and the Cardinals won by 18 points.
Maxwell Smith was clearly UK's most efficient passer last year, but he only played the first 4 games before getting knocked out for the season. He had a pretty decent showing last weekend against an awful Miami OH team.
Louisville won't be able to push UK around in the trenches like they can against most of the inferior competition that they play which will slow them down a little bit. I am going to assume the Oddsmakers have seen a slight improvement under Game 2 of Stoops on the Defensive side, but again against Miami OH, so not sure what to make of it.
All in all its a very similar matchup to last years game with most of the same key players on the each side, with Kentucky actually having film on Bridgewater this time around.
Louisville beat this team by 18 at Home last year, the game is in UK which can be seen as a 6 point swing if you use the standard "3" point Home Field Advantage.
That's my take.
0
Posted on 9/11/13 at 3:20 pm to Flatt2Flowers04
Louisville feels like a trap but ive watched both games by both teams. Can't for the life of me see any reason to doubt Louisville here. Uk is very, very bad. They can't tackle, runners have huge holes, pass d is average at best. Rivalry game or not...I'll take my chance on the trap this week.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 3:22 pm to Flatt2Flowers04
I may do 2, 3 team parlays......Here is who I like. Which 3 teams should I put together to increase my chances?
Troy +10
Louisville -14
UCLA +6
Alabama -10
Boston College +14
Rice -7
Troy +10
Louisville -14
UCLA +6
Alabama -10
Boston College +14
Rice -7
Posted on 9/11/13 at 3:32 pm to tigahmaniac
quote:
parlay
quote:
increase my chances
Does not compute
Posted on 9/11/13 at 3:36 pm to LSUJuice
quote:
Does not compute
Then there is really no need for you to post is there? Maybe that explains your 11,000 post.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 3:52 pm to tigahmaniac
Posted on 9/11/13 at 3:53 pm to LSUJuice
not at all
Posted on 9/11/13 at 3:55 pm to LSUJuice
quote:
Has Mississippi State been discussed yet? I know they cannot score, but damn 6.5 seems like a lot of points. Did WSU's win elevate Auburn's perception?
I think it's too much, and I'm an auburn fan.... state isn't as bad as they looked against Ok State, and WSU's fluky win may have AU a bit overestimated, at the moment.
this will be a very tight game, IMO... wouldn't surprise me at all if state won outright.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 4:12 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
and wouldn't be shocked if UK wins the game straight up.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 4:15 pm to lowspark12
Yeah my fear is that the jury is still out on both teams. I ended up teasing it up to 12.5.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 4:19 pm to LSUJuice
Can't find anything to add so far, might be final:
2* Bama -7
1* TCU -3
Looking into UT - Ole Miss still...
2* Bama -7
1* TCU -3
Looking into UT - Ole Miss still...
Posted on 9/11/13 at 4:20 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
Unlike most, I don't like the Louisville game...I think UK keeps it close, and wouldn't be shocked if UK wins the game straight up.
I agree.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 4:21 pm to Joe Mantegna
quote:
wouldn't be shocked if UK wins the game straight up.
C'mon man. - Chris Carter
ETA: Cris* Carter because the idiot decided to remove the "H" from this first name.
This post was edited on 9/11/13 at 5:50 pm
Posted on 9/11/13 at 4:37 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
Looking into UT - Ole Miss still
I keep going back and forth on this one, but Sportsbook took it off the books earlier.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 4:40 pm to Jwodie
Everybody wants to be "that guy" that picks an outrageous upset.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 4:43 pm to dcrews
If UK wins straight up, I'll quit the interwebz for life.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 7:32 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
I think the only argument you can make for Kentucky is if you look at the results from last year. Louisville was in a battle every single week against shitty teams like Uconn, FIU, Southern Miss, Rutgers etc.
That was one of the reasons I bet Ohio +21 the 1st week. I just didn't know how much Ohio regressed from last year. On the Kentucky side, the only real reason for optimism is Mark Stoops.
The question is how much has Louisville's team improved. They haven't played anyone. Everyone knows Bridgewater is the real deal. I'd lay the points if I bet it, but there is an argument to be made for UK.
That was one of the reasons I bet Ohio +21 the 1st week. I just didn't know how much Ohio regressed from last year. On the Kentucky side, the only real reason for optimism is Mark Stoops.
The question is how much has Louisville's team improved. They haven't played anyone. Everyone knows Bridgewater is the real deal. I'd lay the points if I bet it, but there is an argument to be made for UK.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 7:45 pm to Zipfer2022
..and UK has played who?
A 7-5 WKU who drilled them and a horrible Miami-Ohio team.
Louisville HAS to crush every team they play to have a chance for a BCSNC spot.
A 7-5 WKU who drilled them and a horrible Miami-Ohio team.
Louisville HAS to crush every team they play to have a chance for a BCSNC spot.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 7:49 pm to LSUAlum2001
I can't name two players on Kentucky. I don't care about them, but everyone is shocked at why the line opened so low and this was my reasoning.
Posted on 9/11/13 at 8:14 pm to LSUAlum2001
Yeah and WKU beat UK last year as well, doesn't change the fact that Louisville only beat Kentucky by 18 at home.
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