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Message
re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 3
Posted on 9/10/13 at 11:25 am to bobbyray21
Posted on 9/10/13 at 11:25 am to bobbyray21
quote:
And I think he'll torch them again.
Only time I have ever disagreed with you. As a result, I won't be touching this game
1
Posted on 9/10/13 at 11:26 am to PurpleAndGold86
Bama may have OL issues, but A&M's weak front seven won't be able exploit it... Bama's offense will look like it did in 2012, and as you said, their defense will be ready for Manziel. I don't think McCarron turns it over like he did last year, and bama is able to force a couple turnovers of their own.
talent wise, A&M is in the bottom third of the conference on defense... that will put a ton of pressure on Manziel to score... in this scenario, give me Saban/Smart every day of the week... especially when you consider the time they've had to prepare.
bama by 17.
talent wise, A&M is in the bottom third of the conference on defense... that will put a ton of pressure on Manziel to score... in this scenario, give me Saban/Smart every day of the week... especially when you consider the time they've had to prepare.
bama by 17.
Posted on 9/10/13 at 11:28 am to lowspark12
Our best defense is gonna be getting ahead early and keeping the ball outta Manziels hands.
Posted on 9/10/13 at 11:29 am to bamafan425
quote:
Gonna just have to agree to disagree on that one.
I'm not trying to impose my beliefs on you. But I really don't think there's any value to be gained by monitoring what side the money is flowing to. And for variious reasons.
1. If you can differentiate between public money and sharp money at home from your computer, then you're a smarter man than I.
2. Sharp money is wrong all the goddamn time.
3. Some of my biggest wins have come on games where there was reverse line movement. And that makes me happy because it confirms that i'm smarer than some fat cat that things he's smart.
4. And I hope that fat cat keeps betting. Those casinos didn't build themselves on winners.
Posted on 9/10/13 at 11:31 am to bamafan425
quote:
Our best defense is gonna be getting ahead early and keeping the ball outta Manziels hands.
Well that's quite impossible. To get ahead early requires scoring. And following a score, you kick off to the opposing team.
Posted on 9/10/13 at 11:34 am to PurpleAndGold86
quote:
Only time I have ever disagreed with you. As a result, I won't be touching this game
I probably won't either. Well, maybe I'll put down a little bit. I was just surprised when the line came out like it did. I handicapped it as a pick-em.
Posted on 9/10/13 at 11:39 am to bobbyray21
Problem last year, Bama seemed to run a zone scheme to combat Manziel's mobility, then he torched them through the air. If Bama can play straight up man defense and scheme it to where they keep manziel in the pocket, they are gonna win.
I honestly believe Saban held out a lot during that first game. I think McCarron is better than he looked and I think that Oline is better than they looked.
Not saying it will be a blowout (and not saying I'd take Bama -9), but I think Bama pulls out a win.
Mind you, aTm is an SEC team GETTING near double digit points AT HOME. For any other matchup, that's crazy.
I remember LSU getting 10.5 at home against Bama. We all see how that went. I'd be careful.
I honestly believe Saban held out a lot during that first game. I think McCarron is better than he looked and I think that Oline is better than they looked.
Not saying it will be a blowout (and not saying I'd take Bama -9), but I think Bama pulls out a win.
Mind you, aTm is an SEC team GETTING near double digit points AT HOME. For any other matchup, that's crazy.
I remember LSU getting 10.5 at home against Bama. We all see how that went. I'd be careful.
Posted on 9/10/13 at 11:40 am to bobbyray21
It's part of my research done when making plays. Doesn't make or break what I bet on or not, but it's a component of my analyses.
1. You can have some good follows on twitter to see where the money and what money is coming in on. Are they 100% accurate? No.
2. Public money is wrong all the damn time.
3. Some of my biggest wins have been on RLM as well.
4. 1 sharp or 100 Joe Public, they built themselves on losers.
Come on BRay. You know that's not what I actually meant. If Bama can get ahead, make a stop or two and be able to play ball control and take time off the clock with long drives (even if they have to punt or settle for FGs) I think Bama takes it easily.
I'll say it again. Bama does NOT want a shootout. I also LOVE the UNDER at 62.
1. You can have some good follows on twitter to see where the money and what money is coming in on. Are they 100% accurate? No.
2. Public money is wrong all the damn time.
3. Some of my biggest wins have been on RLM as well.
4. 1 sharp or 100 Joe Public, they built themselves on losers.
quote:
Well that's quite impossible. To get ahead early requires scoring. And following a score, you kick off to the opposing team.
Come on BRay. You know that's not what I actually meant. If Bama can get ahead, make a stop or two and be able to play ball control and take time off the clock with long drives (even if they have to punt or settle for FGs) I think Bama takes it easily.
I'll say it again. Bama does NOT want a shootout. I also LOVE the UNDER at 62.
Posted on 9/10/13 at 11:42 am to bamafan425
quote:
Come on BRay. You know that's not what I actually meant. If Bama can get ahead, make a stop or two and be able to play ball control and take time off the clock with long drives (even if they have to punt or settle for FGs) I think Bama takes it easily.
Yeah, I know what you meant. I was being a wiseguy.*
*But not a member of the mafia
This post was edited on 9/10/13 at 11:46 am
Posted on 9/10/13 at 11:44 am to bobbyray21
Posted on 9/10/13 at 11:52 am to bobbyray21
quote:
But not a member of the mafia
I call bullshite. Think you're just here representing Vegas to get us all on the wrong side. Nice try.
But seriously, People still not liking Oregon? I would be wary taking them at -28, but wouldn't be shocked if they cover. TN defense can play great on 1st and 2nd, then boom on 3rd the Ducks go 80 yards in one play for the TD. Happened last week against UVA. They came out half decent against the Ducks on certain downs, then got burned on 1 down by a huge play.
This post was edited on 9/10/13 at 11:55 am
Posted on 9/10/13 at 12:08 pm to bamafan425
(no message)
This post was edited on 9/10/13 at 12:20 pm
Posted on 9/10/13 at 12:20 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
So I think I've found some live dogs, and just want some thoughts... These are all teams that are catching points, that I have winning straight up by my numbers.
Miss St +6 I have them winning by 6
Central Michigan +7 I have them winning by 2
Bowling Green +2.5 I have them winning by 13
UCLA +4.5 I have them winning by 7
Eastern Washington +4 I have them winning by 6
Miss St +6 I have them winning by 6
Central Michigan +7 I have them winning by 2
Bowling Green +2.5 I have them winning by 13
UCLA +4.5 I have them winning by 7
Eastern Washington +4 I have them winning by 6
Posted on 9/10/13 at 12:22 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
quote:
Miss St +6 I have them winning by 6
curious as to your reasoning on this... wouldn't surprise me in the least if auburn didn't cover, but i don't think MSU is 6 points better on the road.
State has serious issues on offense, specifically the passing game... neither QB is a dangerous threat through the air and their WRs are average at best. They coudn't manage a TD vs a pretty mediocre OSU defense.
On the other side of the ball, State gave up a ton of rush yards to Ok State, and AU is averaging right at 300 yards rushing per game. Obviously this is the best defensive front we've faced all year (although wazzou's D is decent), but we should be able to score some points.
Posted on 9/10/13 at 12:23 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
What do you mean you have them winning by X pts? You got a system or something? How do you "run your numbers?" That's always intriguing to me. If its private by all means keep it to yourself.
Posted on 9/10/13 at 12:32 pm to LSUJuice
quote:
Like Bamafan said, 92% public
I am a bit concerned, and I consider similar stats as well, but heavily-public sides win too.
See FSU vs. Pitt, Oregon vs. UVA.
There have been some big rakes by Vegas tho (Illinois vs. Cinci / Texas vs. BYU come to mind).
Posted on 9/10/13 at 12:38 pm to tigerbaittrick
quote:
What do you mean you have them winning by X pts? You got a system or something? How do you "run your numbers?" That's always intriguing to me. If its private by all means keep it to yourself.
A buddy of mine came up with his own algorithms on excel. Im not sure what all he puts in to it.
This post was edited on 9/10/13 at 12:40 pm
Posted on 9/10/13 at 12:46 pm to lowspark12
quote:
State has serious issues on offense, specifically the passing game... neither QB is a dangerous threat through the air and their WRs are average at best. They coudn't manage a TD vs a pretty mediocre OSU defense.
State is averaging more pass yards per game than Auburn
quote:
On the other side of the ball, State gave up a ton of rush yards to Ok State, and AU is averaging right at 300 yards rushing per game. Obviously this is the best defensive front we've faced all year (although wazzou's D is decent), but we should be able to score some points.
State also held a prolific passing team to just 146 yards through the air.
Posted on 9/10/13 at 1:00 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
quote:
State is averaging more pass yards per game than Auburn
neither team is very good throw the ball... state had to put the ball up more in their game with OSU because they were behind multiple scores.
quote:
State also held a prolific passing team to just 146 yards through the air
again, nearly 300 yards rushing and being up by multiple scores dictated OSU's offense in the 2nd half.
I'm not trying to argue... i'm genuinely curious as to why some think State wins straightup. It would not surprise me at all if it happened... auburn is very much an unknown (and for that reason, I think statistical analysis carries less weight).
eta: Auburn's CBs coach spent the last decade at State... he should be familiar with their personnel and facing their offense. Also, AU's DC Ellis Johnson has gameplanned for State's offense in the past (held them to 10 points in 2011 in starkville).
This post was edited on 9/10/13 at 1:03 pm
Posted on 9/10/13 at 1:37 pm to lowspark12
Any thoughts on how UCLA will come out this weekend against Nebraska?
The death of a teammate, albeit not a key player, has really affected the team.
Will they come out inspired or off their game?
The death of a teammate, albeit not a key player, has really affected the team.
Will they come out inspired or off their game?
This post was edited on 9/10/13 at 1:40 pm
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