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re: ND schedule, not SEC caliber, but harder than I thought

Posted on 11/18/12 at 10:56 pm to
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422608 posts
Posted on 11/18/12 at 10:56 pm to
quote:

because one has a statistically greater chance of losing to purdue on any given year than they do vs western kentucky.

not in any meaningful way

it's like the star example i gave. if your odds go from 0.1% to 0.01%, the odds increased tenfold, but in reality there is no difference

quote:

the talent level is just superior and the NFL drafts and recruiting rankings confirm as much

so playing a really good 1AA team is a lot better than playing a bad 1AA team? c'mon. they're both auto-wins for a legit team
Posted by wm72
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2010
7798 posts
Posted on 11/18/12 at 10:57 pm to
quote:

i've argued for 9 years that SOS should only take into account the top 4-6 teams on a schedule


It's a very good point. At least weighted more heavily toward games played against teams on the Top 25 and Top 50.

I'd guess you may at least see this with a selection committee in the future like with basketball?

I don't dislike the human polls as much as many seem to because I think a lot of voters already do consider this.

Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422608 posts
Posted on 11/18/12 at 10:58 pm to
quote:

I'd guess you may at least see this with a selection committee

don't get me started on that horrible idea
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41819 posts
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:01 pm to
quote:

not in any meaningful way




obviously the talent level is more stratified than you are insinuating.

a hierarchy exists and it should be rewarded, its silly to suggest otherwise. hell, might as well just play 5 teams per year according to your logic.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422608 posts
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:03 pm to
quote:

obviously the talent level is more stratified than you are insinuating.

they could have 100x the talent and 100x the chance of winning, but both are so close to 0 that it just doesn't matter to me

quote:

hell, might as well just play 5 teams per year according to your logic

honestly most CFB schedules come down to fewer than 5 real tests
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41819 posts
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:04 pm to
quote:

but both are so close to 0 that it just doesn't matter to me


but that is not true; poverty AQ players get drafted at much higher rates than nonAQs.

why shouldnt one be rewarded for scheduling *tougher* competition?

Posted by wm72
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2010
7798 posts
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:07 pm to
quote:

that one anecdotal example is just not statistically significant whatsoever.

in general, the trend is for the poverty AQ schools (such as purdue) to be more talented than nonAQ schools (such as wku).


Over the long run I agree with about talent levels. Tennessee or Mich State, even if they're not great in a given year, do probably wear a team down slightly more than Navy or Western Kentucky.


However, back to my original point, all this arguing about cupcake opponents shifts focus away from top end strength which is where the overwhelming percentage of losses by Top10 teams derive.

Whether the difference is a 1/75 chance of losing or a 1/100 chance in losing between teams we're discussing is also not nearly as statistically relevant as playing three Top 15 teams instead of two.

Posted by front2back
Member since Jan 2012
617 posts
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:12 pm to
ND has better wins then all of the sec except fla
Posted by VerlanderBEAST
Member since Dec 2011
18985 posts
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:13 pm to
quote:

honestly most CFB schedules come down to fewer than 5 real tests

Exactly, this year ND is an outlier a throwback to the 80's independents a full schedule, conference teams simpily aren't capable of playing a schedule as tough as ND played this year.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422608 posts
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:13 pm to
quote:

why shouldnt one be rewarded for scheduling *tougher* competition?

because i don't think the difference has any real effect on the seasons, and it warps actual comparisons to the aspects of SOS that matter, imho
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422608 posts
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:15 pm to
quote:

Exactly, this year ND is an outlier a throwback to the 80's independents a full schedule,

ND's schedule that "matters"

Stanford
OU
USC
Michigan

4 < 5
Posted by VerlanderBEAST
Member since Dec 2011
18985 posts
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:19 pm to
You can cherry pick all you want but it doesn't change the fact that Wake Forest>>>>>>>Western Kentucky and that matter.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422608 posts
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:21 pm to
quote:

but it doesn't change the fact that Wake Forest>>>>>>>Western Kentucky and that matter.

wake forest is a slightly bigger fly to get swatted by an elite team like ND. it's still just a fly
Posted by VerlanderBEAST
Member since Dec 2011
18985 posts
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:25 pm to
quote:

wake forest is a slightly bigger fly to get swatted by an elite team like ND. it's still just a fly
Wake Forest would beat Western Kentucky by 40 how is that slightly bigger.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422608 posts
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:30 pm to
quote:

Wake Forest would beat Western Kentucky by 40

irrelevant

i'm not saying that wake isn't better

i'm saying that neither are legit threats to an elite team, so they're all in a big mass of teams who pose essentially equal risks to an elite team. any difference in threat level is negligible
Posted by sms151t
Polos, Porsches, Ponies..PROBATION
Member since Aug 2009
139848 posts
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:34 pm to
Doesn't Michigan St belong on that list? So it would be 5=5
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422608 posts
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:36 pm to
quote:

Doesn't Michigan St belong on that list?

they're 5-6

in the big10

so...no
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
59106 posts
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:36 pm to
quote:

not SEC caliber


Bama and UGA's schedules are not as good as ND's.
Posted by CrippleCreek
Member since Apr 2012
2345 posts
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:51 pm to
quote:

You can cherry pick all you want but it doesn't change the fact that Wake Forest>>>>>>>Western Kentucky and that matter.



If I'm a legit team and you let me pick playing Wake 12 times in a season, or WKU 11 times and Bama once, I'm taking the Wake option every damn time.

Stanford, OU, Michigan, and USC is a solid top 4 games though, and definitely deserving of going to an NC game if the team that has that schedule goes undefeated, regardless of who else they play. I just don't see why any weight should be given to teams 8-12 on the schedule that aren't real threats, just because they've got a better name than the non-threats on everybody else's schedule.
Posted by front2back
Member since Jan 2012
617 posts
Posted on 11/18/12 at 11:53 pm to
c/s
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