re: le Tour '25: Tour de France: FIN We’re All Stars Now In the Dope Show POGGY WINS #4

Data analysis from a lower level pro.

Two weeks of the Tour de France are over and we have three riders, currently in the top 10 overall, who have uploaded all their races with power and heart rate.

A good opportunity to get an insight into the racing demands of the biggest race in the world.

Today I want to start with the power profile.

In picture 1 I have compared the power duration profile of the three riders. Since they are all similar in height (1.75m) and weight (~62kg), comparing absolute watts makes sense.

The three power profiles look very similar. Johannessen has the best sprint power, while Onley trumps the other two in ~40s, 3-5min and 30min power. With the power duration profile, we can also calculate the FTP and work capacity over FTP (W'). I did this with the linear work-time model for efforts between 2 and 20 minutes.
Again, the three riders are very similar (numbers in pic 2).

How much the power profile changes after accumulated fatigue is another important aspect of road cycling, so i also looked into fatigued data. For that i calculated FTP and W´after 0-4000kJ of work (Fig. 3-4).
Onley and Johannessen show similar fatigue resistance in FTP up to 3000kJ. At 4000kJ, Johannessen drops by 10% while Onleys decline is only 4%. Ben Healy shows a more steady decline in FTP beginning at aleady 2000kJ, but this could also be due to his aggressive racing style, where he spends a lot of energy in the break formation phase and therefore fatigues earlier. Both fresh and fatigued power profile fits nicely with their current position in GC.

Anaerobic work capacity increased or stayed stable for all riders up to 3000kJ. This is because a lot of the first 10 stages ended with very punchy finals, where riders did their best 1-5min power late in the race. When looking at racing data, we always have to keep in mind that the profiles show what the riders have done and not what they could have done.

Onley has serious potential. He is challenging for a tour podium soon. Just needs to get on a better team. Would love to see him go to Ineos

Yeah sad to hear about MvDP. He was having a good tour.

Very exciting finish today on Ventoux. Thought Healey had another stage win but I think he went a tad early and the Frenchman caught him in the last 50 meters. Very fun race.

W/kg estimates

Just for shits and giggles…I’d like to see the times of these guys on the bike pantani rode. With the nutrition and supplements of today maybe it may not matter but the equipment is so much better. Nice win for the Frenchy’s and I’m impressed by how cocked headed Ben has rode this tour. If he not the most aggressive rider at the end, something’s wrong.

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Just for shits and giggles…I’d like to see the times of these guys on the bike pantani rode. With the nutrition and supplements of today maybe it may not matter but the equipment is so much better.

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Yeah and it was flat all day until the climb.

Pantani’s time came on 231k stage lol. I can’t tell where the climb was in the stage.

Jorgensen had disappeared suddenly…I wonder is he sick? He was nowhere today.
ETA: lot of riders seem to be gassed. Maybe he’s one of those that people are saying are fight a cold. Not sure here, but he’s gone from the leading group.

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ETA: lot of riders seem to be gassed.

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Between the route (climbing) and the pace this years race has been brutal. Tomorrow's flat stage still has 5500 ft of climbing and Thursday has ~18,000 ft. followed by 15,000 on Friday. One thing I do love about the route is that almost all the mountain stages end on HC climbs.

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That was a disastrous finish. But with the rain and all those roundabout splits, I had a feeling something was gonna happen.

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While I am not saying the crash would have happened in the wet it was typical pre-leadout shenanigans. Two riders with their eyes up the road, calculating where they wanted to be and the path they should take to get there, squeezed a rider from both sides at the same time. It pretty much handed the green to Milan but it was likely his anyway, and Girmay and Merlier were out of position that late anyway.

In a close race tomorrow would be fire but I am not sure about Jonas attacking early because I feel like Visma is resigned to second unless they see some big cracks in Pog and UAE. I know the idea is 2nd or 5th makes no difference in the GC but I think Jonas really appreciates the never below second label.

I expect Martinez to go out early and try to grab the 40 points on offer at the top of Glandon and the Madeleine so even if Poggy wins he would still stay tied for the dots (but behind on the tie breaker).



ETA does Pog take some revenge on de la Loze? "I'm gone, I'm dead"