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re: Josh Pate “ND would win the SEC this year.”

Posted on 8/7/26 at 12:53 pm to
Posted by RGT
Member since Aug 2024
2140 posts
Posted on 8/7/26 at 12:53 pm to
ND would go 10-2 in the SEC this season depending on if they had to play 3-4 top 6 teams in the conference.
Posted by Madking
Member since Apr 2016
72975 posts
Posted on 8/7/26 at 12:54 pm to
Lmfao
Posted by iwyLSUiwy
I'm your huckleberry
Member since Apr 2008
43553 posts
Posted on 8/7/26 at 1:10 pm to
quote:

ND finished ahead of every SEC team in FPI / Sagarin / FEI / F+ / every relevant Vegas rating / power rating last season, so it’s not like it’s an extremely outlandish statement


Notre Dame played two tough games last year and lost both of them. Who cares where they finished in some Vegas ratings. Two weeks into the season we knew who Notre Dame was.
Posted by Buckeye Fan 19
Member since Dec 2007
36727 posts
Posted on 8/7/26 at 8:43 pm to
quote:

I don’t, the point is you expand and contract timeframes depending of whether or not they benefit your bias.


That's absolute bullshite. The whole time my whole point has been Marcus Freeman's program isn't the same as Brian Kelly's, so Brian Kelly's results are irrelevant. I'm not choosing to ignore 2019/2020 out of random (although, even if it was the same head coach, 7 seasons ago is a long time in the world of college football. More on that below). I'm ignoring 2019/2020, because THE HEAD COACH IS NOT THE SAME. Wow, what a novel concept.

Indiana is a great current (obviously not historical) college football program. I'm not going to say, "I want to call Indiana a great current program... but then I'd be 'contracting timeframes' if I only look at the last two seasons and ignore Tom Allen's 3-9 season in 2023. Too bad, guess they suck still." That's moronic. Alabama is only a good program at the moment, not great/elite. I can use DeBoer's two seasons as evidence. I don't need to "expand" more than two years back to when there was an all-time legend as their head coach.

And, yes, even recent results under the same head coach can lead to a program enhancing or declining. On August 7, 2021, Clemson was considered the 2nd-best program in America. Rightfully so. Their run from 2015-2020 was the 2nd-best in the country. Only five years later, with the same 2-time champion head coach, they're not even a top-15 current program. That's because we can use recent results in our evaluation of the current state of a program.

This is literal common sense. Like, I can't believe I have to type this out to (I'm presuming) an adult.
This post was edited on 8/7/26 at 8:46 pm
Posted by Madking
Member since Apr 2016
72975 posts
Posted on 8/7/26 at 8:52 pm to
quote:

That's absolute bullshite



It’s 100% fact and you’ve admitted to it several times. You’ve admitted to everything I’ve said you just believe it’s fine because you’re the one doing it which also proves my point.
Posted by Madking
Member since Apr 2016
72975 posts
Posted on 8/7/26 at 9:03 pm to
I can’t believe I have to explain to someone why a short term trend isn’t as reliable as a large data set much less a trend based on partial data. Do you know what math is? ND has beaten 1 good SEC team under Freeman yet you’re hooping and hollering over one of the worst Arkansas teams of the past 20 years and fricking South Carolina. Since you ignore any reliable data set here’s one from the past 3 years that at least has some size. The SEC is 11-11 vs the Big Ten during that span but we’d never know that going by your anecdotal and selective facts. And ND of all teams, what have they done, they weren’t in the playoff last season so by your own logic they’re nowhere near an upper tier SEC program. See this is what happens when all you do is play gotcha and move the goalpost to wherever is convenient at the time. It’s like playing retard whack a mole.
Posted by Sun God
Member since Jul 2009
52778 posts
Posted on 8/7/26 at 9:50 pm to
quote:

made the national championship game

That is a heck of an accomplishment for y’all

Brian Kelly level shite

Maybe one of us SEC teams will manage it one day
This post was edited on 8/7/26 at 9:51 pm
Posted by josh336
baton rouge
Member since Jan 2007
83339 posts
Posted on 8/7/26 at 10:04 pm to
This isnt some crazy thing to say that some of yall think it is.

Notre dame is power rated by alot of smart minds above all sec teams.
Posted by AbuTheMonkey
Chicago, IL
Member since May 2014
8718 posts
Posted on 8/7/26 at 10:34 pm to
quote:

This isnt some crazy thing to say that some of yall think it is. Notre dame is power rated by alot of smart minds above all sec teams.


We’d be the outright favorite or 1B to UGA as it stands today. These idiots are still acting like it’s 2018, and ND is still rolling out Brian Kelly era Notre Dame teams.

It’s 2026, and $50M goes a long way to build a national title contender. We’re #1, #2, or #3 by any objective standard of roster talent and depth across the country to go along with a very good - or elite, depending on your perspective - coaching staff. There are 5 - 6 potential first rounders on the defense, just for starters. Next year Notre Dame will be able start a 5 star at every single position across both the offensive and defensive lines if they so choose - not sure there has been a team in college football this century sans Alabama circa 2015 or UGA 2021 or so who could say the same.

It’s going to be a long couple of years for the folks who think it’s still the pre-NIL era for Notre Dame.
This post was edited on 8/7/26 at 10:39 pm
Posted by Madking
Member since Apr 2016
72975 posts
Posted on 8/7/26 at 10:38 pm to
lol delusional
Posted by AbuTheMonkey
Chicago, IL
Member since May 2014
8718 posts
Posted on 8/7/26 at 10:46 pm to
quote:

lol delusional


Nope. Money wins, and Notre Dame has a lot of it.

ND has the second highest blue chip ratio in America this season (ever so slightly behind UGA). Better than Alabama. Better than LSU. Better than Texas. Better than Ohio State. Better than Oregon. They haven’t been above about 7th ever in that metric since it’s been tracked. Steele - no fan of ND historically - has ND as the best secondary, best line backing corps, best offensive line, and fifth-best defensive line in the sport heading into this season. To go along with a top half of the first round type of QB.

The fundamentals of the sport shifted so quickly beneath your feet that you’re still adjusting to how it works now. That’s ok. You’ll see enough soon. LSU’s blow out NIL and portal class this year to entice Lane was still 30 - 40% less than what ND spent, for your reference.
This post was edited on 8/7/26 at 10:47 pm
Posted by Madking
Member since Apr 2016
72975 posts
Posted on 8/7/26 at 11:17 pm to
Well your theory has a hundred holes and examples to disprove it on each end of the spectrum…. Texas, Indiana and so on. There is an adjustment going on right now but it isn’t talent or ability, it’s just the loss of the greatest coach in the sports history and some shuffling at other perennial top programs but that won’t last very long. The situation at Bama also proves the SECs pull is still there since that guy could’ve avoided a ton of trouble and gone to Michigan but he decided to stay at Bama knowing the odds are stacked against him right now. ND does have the sole benefit of playing a mid major schedule so they’ll always look pretty and have an opportunity but they’re just not consistently good enough to compete as modern history has proven over and over and over again.
This post was edited on 8/7/26 at 11:24 pm
Posted by cascadia
Georgia
Member since Jan 2014
2652 posts
Posted on 8/7/26 at 11:36 pm to
I could see it. Come bowl season we see time and again how bad the sec is and yeah ND schedules bad but it’s no different than the average sec conference schedule
Posted by WinnPtiger
Fort Worth
Member since Mar 2011
25123 posts
Posted on 8/7/26 at 11:49 pm to
quote:

ND has the second highest blue chip ratio in America this season (ever so slightly behind UGA). Better than Alabama. Better than LSU. Better than Texas. Better than Ohio State. Better than Oregon. They haven’t been above about 7th ever in that metric since it’s been tracked. Steele - no fan of ND historically - has ND as the best secondary, best line backing corps, best offensive line, and fifth-best defensive line in the sport heading into this season. To go along with a top half of the first round type of QB.



well, considering your schedule, you should win the title then. running away
Posted by Buckeye Fan 19
Member since Dec 2007
36727 posts
Posted on 8/8/26 at 12:04 am to
quote:

I can’t believe I have to explain to someone why a short term trend isn’t as reliable as a large data set much less a trend based on partial data.



There isn't a relevant AND large data set that's strictly literally ND vs. SEC head-to-head. Your "last 8 games" is neither relevant nor large. Data from a completely different head coach from nearly a decade ago ISN'T RELEVANT.

If you want the largest possible sample size, with NO time constraints: ND is 51-27 all-time against the current SEC members. That winning percentage is only behind Texas and Alabama. The only SEC program ND has a losing record against all-time is Georgia (1-3). ND is 9-2 against Oklahoma, 9-3 against Texas, 7-5 against LSU, 5-3 against Alabama, 4-3 against A&M... No pushing back on that: I wouldn't want to accuse you of "constraining time" or "limiting sample size"...

You have three options:

1) Don't constrain time / sample size at all, and acknowledge what's written above, which proves ND would be a top current SEC program (yeah, that'd be a dumb argument, no shite. Caring about / referencing anything past the most recent 3, maybe 4 years max in a CURRENT debate is dumb, that's the point...)

2) (If choosing to pass on #1, but still wanting to engage in a pure hypothetical on a message board): Use your brain by looking at a variety of available data from the past couple of years: advanced stats, power ratings, ND's results in (limited number of...) SEC games, ND's results in the playoff, the SEC's results in the playoff, the SEC's results against the B1G (yep, 11-11), returning production metrics for 2026, etc etc, and be able to reasonably conclude:

"No, I don't have a ton of literal direct samples of actual ND vs. SEC head-to-head games recently, but based on the large variety of other data available, it seems likely ND would be up there with Texas and UGA as the favorites this upcoming season and have a great chance at winning the conference. Would they actually win it? Obviously don't know, but they'd have as good chance as anyone."

3) (If choosing to pass on #1, and not wanting to / able to do #2): Say, "The only relevant data in my opinion is a substantial sample size of direct ND vs. SEC head-to-head matchups from the past 3-4 seasons, and that doesn't exist because there are only 4 data points, so I can't definitively say how ND would do. It's irrelevant so there's no use in debating."

#3 is probably your best bet at this point.
Posted by Buckeye Fan 19
Member since Dec 2007
36727 posts
Posted on 8/8/26 at 12:05 am to
quote:

This isnt some crazy thing to say that some of yall think it is.

Notre dame is power rated by alot of smart minds above all sec teams


No no, you don't understand. Nick Saban dominated Brian Kelly in 2012 and 2020...
Posted by Madking
Member since Apr 2016
72975 posts
Posted on 8/8/26 at 12:58 am to
Lmao, I’m sorry but someone who uses double standards, moves the goal posts, curates facts and constantly makes contradictory statements doesn’t get to dictate rules to me.
This post was edited on 8/8/26 at 1:01 am
Posted by Buckeye Fan 19
Member since Dec 2007
36727 posts
Posted on 8/8/26 at 1:34 am to
Before wrapping up, we’ve done a lot of talking / debating related to MY opinion ND would contend for the SEC this year.

But on the flip side, did I either miss an additional point of yours in this thread or misinterpret that “ND is 4-4 in their last 8 games against the SEC” (which is again incorrect, it’s 5-3, and again contains data from Brian Kelly pre-Covid) is your only argument for why you think it’s preposterous 2026 ND would be able to compete for the SEC title this year?

I’ll consider no response you moving off that previous stance and in favor of choice #3 above, but want you to correct me and/or provide additional arguments, if you’d like.
Posted by Sun God
Member since Jul 2009
52778 posts
Posted on 8/8/26 at 7:57 am to
Notre Dame would absolutely compete for the top spot in the SEC

Until y’all win a championship the SEC and Big10 guys will continue to roll their eyes at yall though

I give zero shits about y’all’s run a couple of years ago. Win everything and this entire board will go radio silent
This post was edited on 8/8/26 at 7:59 am
Posted by Buckeye Fan 19
Member since Dec 2007
36727 posts
Posted on 8/8/26 at 8:48 am to
Fair enough. “1988” jokes / trash talk are completely fair game and warranted, no argument from me there.
This post was edited on 8/8/26 at 8:51 am
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