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re: Josh Hamilton agrees to terms with Angels 5 yrs/125 Mill

Posted on 12/14/12 at 11:23 am to
Posted by OBUDan
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
40723 posts
Posted on 12/14/12 at 11:23 am to
That would be my guess. I wish I could recall it better. But he specifically mentioned it being difficult for lefties. But his main concern is his horrible contact rate combined with the potential for a decline in power could make him a good hitter rather than a great one.
Posted by OBUDan
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
40723 posts
Posted on 12/14/12 at 11:28 am to
quote:

Didn't Pujols himself take forever to start hitting homers there as well?


Yeah and I don't think it's a coincidence he had a career low in HRs and his 2nd highest double total either.
Posted by GynoSandberg
Member since Jan 2006
72010 posts
Posted on 12/14/12 at 11:29 am to
Sounds like he was really digging deep to try and find a negative for the signing. The producer probably needed someone to play devil's advocate.
Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278385 posts
Posted on 12/14/12 at 12:20 pm to
Pujols wasn't hitting at all. I don't think it was the park.
Posted by Vicks Kennel Club
29-24 #BlewDat
Member since Dec 2010
31073 posts
Posted on 12/14/12 at 12:37 pm to
quote:


I know the warm air helps the ball travel but its not like LA doesn't get hot. Maybe there is some winds blowing in because its by the coast?


It is not much of a difference, but the altitude in Arlington is almost 500 feet higher. However, I think something like this could come into play only if Hamilton was just inching it over the fences.

The biggest differences in the park is probably how the wind blows through them. That is why the Yankees have such an extreme hitters park. Everything leaves the bat with a nice tailwind.
Posted by GynoSandberg
Member since Jan 2006
72010 posts
Posted on 12/14/12 at 12:42 pm to
quote:



Yeah and I don't think it's a coincidence he had a career low in HRs and his 2nd highest double total either.



The dude is human and feels pressure like anyone else. Pressure of huge contract. Changing teams. Changing leagues. A lot of stuff.

He also had the most Ks since his rookie year and lowest walk total of his career. Sounds like he was trying to do too much.

Pujols will be in the MVP running this season, book it.
Posted by Vicks Kennel Club
29-24 #BlewDat
Member since Dec 2010
31073 posts
Posted on 12/14/12 at 12:47 pm to
quote:

The dude is human

LINK
Posted by barry
Location, Location, Location
Member since Aug 2006
50342 posts
Posted on 12/14/12 at 12:49 pm to
quote:

Pujols wasn't hitting at all. I don't think it was the park.


agreed. His Home/Road splits for HR were pretty much even and he actually hit 6 more doubles on the road.
Posted by GynoSandberg
Member since Jan 2006
72010 posts
Posted on 12/14/12 at 12:49 pm to



Posted by barry
Location, Location, Location
Member since Aug 2006
50342 posts
Posted on 12/14/12 at 12:49 pm to
quote:

The dude is human

LINK


Blocked at work but im guessing the sportscenter commercial?
Posted by Vicks Kennel Club
29-24 #BlewDat
Member since Dec 2010
31073 posts
Posted on 12/14/12 at 12:52 pm to
Yeah. Why didn't you eliminate them Albert?
Posted by DEANintheYAY
LEFT COAST
Member since Jan 2008
31975 posts
Posted on 12/14/12 at 12:57 pm to
The biggest park difference will be t he thick marine layer at night that keeps balls in the park. Day games in Anaheim aren't as bad as nights games for killing HRs.
Posted by RonBurgundy
Whale's Vagina(San Diego)
Member since Oct 2005
13302 posts
Posted on 12/14/12 at 12:59 pm to
has anyone mentioned that the Rangers threw him under the bus late in the season and are now bitching about how they lost him?

Poor move by Texas.
Posted by OBUDan
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
40723 posts
Posted on 12/14/12 at 1:10 pm to
I guess we'll see.

Again, I'm not saying Josh Hamilton is gonna become Skip Schumaker. But I think his numbers will be more like Nick Swisher.

Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278385 posts
Posted on 12/14/12 at 1:40 pm to
Nick swisher? Really?

All because of the park? Just curious.

Swisher is like a 25/80 player

He has monster power and is moving to a better lineup. That would be quite the fall
Posted by OBUDan
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
40723 posts
Posted on 12/14/12 at 2:05 pm to
quote:

Swisher is like a 25/80 player


Hamilton was pretty close to that in 2011.

quote:

All because of the park? Just curious.


Park plus the fact that he posted the league's worst contact rate last season. If he drives his strikeouts back down, then he can get away from that, but if his Ks stay high like last year, then his BA will drop due to the park and some of his HRs turning into long outs.
Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278385 posts
Posted on 12/14/12 at 2:08 pm to
quote:

Hamilton was pretty close to that in 2011.


25/94 and he missed 40 games
Posted by OBUDan
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
40723 posts
Posted on 12/14/12 at 2:11 pm to
And 29 the year before that and almost half the season the year before that.

I don't see any reason why we should assume he's automatically going to be a 150-game-a-year player as he ventures further onto the wrong side of 30.

He's done that only twice in six seasons.
Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278385 posts
Posted on 12/14/12 at 2:14 pm to
I understand that but that doesn't make him a nick swisher player.

I thought you were an advanced metric guy?

Now you want to compare him to swisher because he may end up with similar HR totals only because he may miss games? Kinda silly.

Hamilton hit a HR once every 13ABs last year. Swisher 22. I mean damn!
Posted by Baloo
Formerly MDGeaux
Member since Sep 2003
49645 posts
Posted on 12/14/12 at 2:21 pm to
Swisher hit 272/364/473 last year.
Hamilton hit 285/354/577 last year.

That's a pretty big gap in slugging (though Hamilton did slug 510 in the 2nd half). I'd be pretty surprised if Hamilton was putting up Swisher numbers next year. However, I wouldn't be entirely shocked if his batting average took a tumble if he can't reverse the trend in strikeouts.

It's hard to maintain a high BA with a ton of strikeouts. If it's just a one year thing, no worries. But if this is a new reality for Hamilton, he's in danger of becoming an Adam Dunn type player.

There's a lot of red flags with Hamilton, but I think they are more long term than short term. I think he'll largely be awesome next season.
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