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Message
re: James Harden wins The Players' NBA MVP award
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:17 pm to RTR America
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:17 pm to RTR America
quote:Right, so why does that count for nothing?
Shel basically said what I would say. That Warriors team fell apart when Curry wasn't on the floor, especially in the playoffs.
Curry was +16 on the court per 100 possessions and GS was -1.2 when he was off.
Harden +5.8 on and -3.2 off.
Curry made more of a difference when he was on the court compared to off, factually speaking fwiw.
0
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:19 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:He averaged 29.8 last season so just adding 2.2 minutes per game is not in line with the most applicable data.
Let me do some quick math for ya bro since you don't seem capable of doing it on your own.
Howard missed 41 games.
He averages 32 mpg being conservative.
Thats 1312 Minutes.
quote:Again, his WS/48 last season was .140; this is the applicable data.
His win share per 48 in HOU is .154
quote:Since you like back of a napkin math, why don't we get an estimate of the wins he would have added.
Howard missed half of last season and they win 56 games. If they only win 5 more of the 41 games that D12 missed(conservative estimate), well that gives them 61.
In the 41 games that Dwight played, Dwight had 3.6 Win Shares. Using that, we can estimate that he would contribute to 3.6 more wins in the 41 games he didn't play.
Now if you use Estimated Wins Added (EWA), we see that he added 5.3 wins, we can estimate that he would add 5.3 more wins, which is in line with your estimate.
So your estimate of 5 wins in reasonable; however, it is NOT a conservative estimate. 5 wins would be near the upper bound.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:19 pm to shel311
quote:
You said Dwight only nets you more than 5 wins, conservatively, what does any of the rest of the injuries have to do with that statement?
IMO it does. NO advanced metric stands alone as the end all be all. The WS/48 calculation gets me close enough to go along with what I know to support what I'm saying.
quote:
we both know it's higher than 4.21, but you won't even touch trying to explain that away, will you?
Still wouldn't have gotten them into the playoffs. Add 5 wins to the Pels. Hey guess what Dallas was resting guys the last week had they been in an actual race they would've played those guys and been more than 5 games ahead of the Pels. No one outside of a couple Pels fans is even willing to argue this.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:23 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:So only HOU gets the benefit of the multiple injuries, not the Pels?
IMO it does
quote:So funny, going against all the metrics you mention and love because they're more pro-Pels in this specific debate.
Still wouldn't have gotten them into the playoffs. Add 5 wins to the Pels. Hey guess what Dallas was resting guys the last week had they been in an actual race they would've played those guys and been more than 5 games ahead of the Pels. No one outside of a couple Pels fans is even willing to argue this.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:24 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:He was on a minutes restriction because he was coming off of injury. he never played 30 minutes in any game after he came back until the playoffs. Without that he's easily over 32 minutes per game as shown by the 34 min per game he averaged in the playoffs. Guess this is a situation where you have to actually understand and watch the game instead of just spouting off numbers.
He averaged 29.8 last season so just adding 2.2 minutes per game is not in line with the most applicable data
quote:No it's not, he was hurt and on a minutes restriction/not going 100%.
Again, his WS/48 last season was .140; this is the applicable data.
quote:
o your estimate of 5 wins in reasonable; however, it is NOT a conservative estimate. 5 wins would be near the upper bound.
For the last time bro win shares is NOT the end all be all. No single measurement is. It's used along with other measurement to come to a conclusion.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:27 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:Like the .3 VORP? you were just talking about how good a tool VORP is 2 pages ago.
For the last time bro win shares is NOT the end all be all. No single measurement is. It's used along with other measurement to come to a conclusion.
This post was edited on 7/21/15 at 2:28 pm
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:30 pm to shel311
NO like this:
Response:
There is no best you've got to look at the whole picture.
Gun to my head I would go with VORP.
Mean if I absolutely had to pick on that's what I'd go with. Otherwise I'd say there's no best.
quote:
What is the best advanced stats and a detailed reasoning on why it's optimal?
Response:
There is no best you've got to look at the whole picture.
Gun to my head I would go with VORP.
Mean if I absolutely had to pick on that's what I'd go with. Otherwise I'd say there's no best.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:31 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:Oh by the way, the Mavs were 4-1 in that final week.
Hey guess what Dallas was resting guys the last week had they been in an actual race they would've played those guys and been more than 5 games ahead of the Pels. No one outside of a couple Pels fans is even willing to argue this.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:32 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:And when none of them support 5 wins being a conservative estimate, do you just resort to the eye test, or do you concede that the numbers don't back up the 5 conservative estimate and it's probably too high?
Response:
There is no best you've got to look at the whole picture.
Gun to my head I would go with VORP.
Mean if I absolutely had to pick on that's what I'd go with. Otherwise I'd say there's no best.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:33 pm to shel311
Would've been 5-0 if they had to win to make the playoffs.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:36 pm to shel311
We're talking about .7 wins over an 82 game season. Point. Seven. The numbers get me within .7 wins and you are arguing over not even a full win? Go find something else to argue about bro movie talk or something you aren't making any progress here.
Point. Seven. Wins.
Point. Seven. Wins.
This post was edited on 7/21/15 at 2:37 pm
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:38 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:I agree; however, you used it in your calculation, which even taking favorable data from the prior season, still only got to 4.2 additional wins.
For the last time bro win shares is NOT the end all be all. No single measurement is. It's used along with other measurement to come to a conclusion.
Let's look at it another way. Houston lost 14 of the 41 games that Dwight did not play. 9 of those losses were by 11 or more points. The remaining five were by 8, 6, 5, 3, and 2.
Now Dwight's Box Plus/Minus was -1.2 and his Real Plus/Minus was 1.96. Now clearly these aren't favorable data to indicate that his addition would overcome ANY single loss, let alone 5 of them.
Even if we assume that his addition would result in wins in the losses that were 5 points or less, that is still only 3 additional wins. Even winning the games that were losses in the single digits only gets you to 5 wins.
This tells us that 5 additional wins is not only NOT CONSERVATIVE, it is likely a reach.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:40 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:Ah that's just semantics!!!
This tells us that 5 additional wins is not only NOT CONSERVATIVE, it is likely a reach.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:41 pm to buckeye_vol
If you only use the numbers, maybe. Luckily for me and unluckily for you I watch the games and see the impact that Howard has that can't be measured by any metric. Which makes you arguing this using ONLY metrics ridiculous, and a losing argument for you.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:41 pm to Boomshockalocka
What numbers get you to .7? The numbers that you manipulated, or the actual numbers?
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:43 pm to Epic Cajun
YOu gonna use the MPG from the year when he was on a minutes restriction or you gonna use a MPG # that is less than his career averages and playoff averages and previous season averages?????????
If you're assuming health you dont use the numbers from the sesason when he was playing restricted minutes.
He averaged 34 minutes in the postseason and 34 minutes last season in the regular season. I only used 32 minutes.
If you're assuming health you dont use the numbers from the sesason when he was playing restricted minutes.
He averaged 34 minutes in the postseason and 34 minutes last season in the regular season. I only used 32 minutes.
This post was edited on 7/21/15 at 2:46 pm
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:45 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:
If you only use the numbers, maybe. Luckily for me and unluckily for you I watch the games and see the impact that Howard has that can't be measured by any metric. Which makes you arguing this using ONLY metrics ridiculous, and a losing argument for you.
What do I win?
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:46 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:
If you only use the numbers, maybe. Luckily for me and unluckily for you I watch the games and see the impact that Howard has that can't be measured by any metric.
So no matter how you look at the data, 5 wins is reach. Therefore, ALL of the data are incorrect because your EYES tell you otherwise. You are one funny guy. quote:So when the data don't support you, then the counter-argument is the losing argument, even though you don't have anything besides your EYES to back that statement up.
Which makes you arguing this using ONLY metrics ridiculous, and a losing argument for you.
This post was edited on 7/21/15 at 2:49 pm
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:46 pm to Boomshockalocka
Lol
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:47 pm to shel311
Nothing..you already lost by trying to argue the definition of conservative by using only numbers when numbers don't tell the whole story.
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