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re: Discussions about MVP Awards (In General)
Posted on 5/6/13 at 11:19 am to bobbyray21
Posted on 5/6/13 at 11:19 am to bobbyray21
quote:
But isn't the best player the one who adds the most value to his team?
Not necessarily.
CP3 means adds a lot more to the clippers than Lebron does to the heat.
I'm not saying this is a solid argument at all for "who is the league MVP" question, but the heat would be decent without lebron. The clips would be garbage without CP3.
No, I don't think CP3 should have won the MVP. Lebron was the only choice.
2
Posted on 5/6/13 at 11:19 am to bobbyray21
quote:Agreed.
But isn't the best player the one who adds the most value to his team? How else could you possibly define it?
If you list the top 10 players IYO, then you're listing the guy who provides the most value on down.
Posted on 5/6/13 at 11:21 am to bobbyray21
quote:Ah, gotcha. I thought there was some actual tool, which would be neat.
Win shares is the closest you're gonna find.
But I'm referring to VORP conceptually -- as the most important question to be asking
I'd equate WS to WAR more than VORP, no? Both focus on wins, whereas I think VORP is value added by runs.
Posted on 5/6/13 at 11:22 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
CP3 means adds a lot more to the clippers than Lebron does to the heat.
I'm not saying this is a solid argument at all for "who is the league MVP" question, but the heat would be decent without lebron. The clips would be garbage without CP3.
No, I don't think CP3 should have won the MVP. Lebron was the only choice.
I disagree with this. I think Lebron adds the most value.
Posted on 5/6/13 at 11:23 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:But why is THAT the hypothetical?
but the heat would be decent without lebron. The clips would be garbage without CP3.
What if Paul and Lebron switched teams, wouldn't the Clippers then be better than the Heat? Why can't THIS hypothetical be the best predictor of value?
Posted on 5/6/13 at 11:23 am to shel311
quote:
I'd equate WS to WAR more than VORP, no? Both focus on wins, whereas I think VORP is value added by runs
I'm not sure how to conceptually differentiate WAR and VORP.
They sound the same.
I don't follow baseball.
Posted on 5/6/13 at 11:25 am to bobbyray21
That's fine, to each his own.
I think what the OP may be trying to say is that even though some other players may mean more to their team's success (a la CP3), that is a stupid way of deciding the league wide MVP.
If that is what the OP is saying, I agree with that.
I think CP3 is the most valuable to his team, I don't think CP3 is the most valuable player in the league.
I think what the OP may be trying to say is that even though some other players may mean more to their team's success (a la CP3), that is a stupid way of deciding the league wide MVP.
If that is what the OP is saying, I agree with that.
I think CP3 is the most valuable to his team, I don't think CP3 is the most valuable player in the league.
Posted on 5/6/13 at 11:28 am to shel311
quote:
What if Paul and Lebron switched teams, wouldn't the Clippers then be better than the Heat? Why can't THIS hypothetical be the best predictor of value?
I think it's a poor hypo because the teams are built certain ways.
I think if you switched them the Lebron-led clippers wouldn't be as good as this year's heat, AND the CP3-lead heat wouldn't be as good as this years clippers.
Ehhh, the CP3 lead heat might be better than this year's clippers. They got exposed.
This post was edited on 5/6/13 at 11:30 am
Posted on 5/6/13 at 11:29 am to bobbyray21
WAR an VORP are the same thing, only dealing with different scales. VORP deals with runs, WAR deals with wins. but it's essentially the same thing. VORP also has a proprietary formula, so we can't check their math.
Win Shares predate WAR, but not VORP. They were invented by Bill James, and then carried over to basketball. WS are not popular among baseball sabermetricians because of two things: they liked WAR more which was created a year or two later AND a bit of resentment toward James, who is perceived to be a fossil past his time by the true eggheads. James was never a great statistician, despite his rep. He told great stories, and there's some resentment that his numbers have "won" even though they aren't always the "best".
Win Shares predate WAR, but not VORP. They were invented by Bill James, and then carried over to basketball. WS are not popular among baseball sabermetricians because of two things: they liked WAR more which was created a year or two later AND a bit of resentment toward James, who is perceived to be a fossil past his time by the true eggheads. James was never a great statistician, despite his rep. He told great stories, and there's some resentment that his numbers have "won" even though they aren't always the "best".
Posted on 5/6/13 at 11:31 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
I think CP3 is the most valuable to his team, I don't think CP3 is the most valuable player in the league.
How do you make this distinction?
Posted on 5/6/13 at 11:36 am to bobbyray21
quote:
How do you make this distinction?
Because I think it is measuring two different things.
Let's say both Lebron and CP3 both have season ending injuries in the first week of the season this year.
The heat are still a 4th seed at least (East is garbage and the Heat's division is probably the worst).
The clippers are a lottery team and don't even come close.
That still doesn't mean that CP3 is the most valuable player league wide.
One way I like to look at MVP is if hypothetically the NBA mandated that all rosters be cleared and that there would be a redraft of all players before next season, who would every team take first overall if they could. The answer is obviously lebron.
Posted on 5/6/13 at 11:40 am to JohnnyKilroy
I know you weren't actually arguing for Paul, but just making a point, but what do you do with this :
Per 100 possession, the Heat are 15.2 points better when Lebron is on the court compared to off court.
For Paul, that number is 6.3 points per 100.
LeBron's value gets underrated Imo because of his 2 teammates.
Per 100 possession, the Heat are 15.2 points better when Lebron is on the court compared to off court.
For Paul, that number is 6.3 points per 100.
LeBron's value gets underrated Imo because of his 2 teammates.
This post was edited on 5/6/13 at 11:50 am
Posted on 5/6/13 at 11:45 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
One way I like to look at MVP is if hypothetically the NBA mandated that all rosters be cleared and that there would be a redraft of all players before next season, who would every team take first overall if they could. The answer is obviously lebron.
I like this.
Posted on 5/6/13 at 11:46 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:While there's definitely some truth to this, Duncan was pretty amazing those years as well. Plus I'd say a better defender. And he played in nearly every game those years, while Shaq missed like 15 games (nearly 20% of the season, not a ton, but relevant of consideration in my opinion).
shaq was punished by writers for "not living up to his potential" and upsetting them. it's complete bullshite
The Iverson MVP is well.. whatever. Garnett deserved to win in 04. And I don't think Shaq deserved in win in '05 either.
While it's unfortunate Shaq only won 1 MVP, outside of AI in '01 I'm not sure which he should have won.
Posted on 5/6/13 at 11:47 am to shel311
quote:
I know you weren't actually arguing for Paul, but just making a point, but what do you do with this :
Per 100 possession, the Heat are 15.2 points better when Lebron is on the out compared to off court.
For Paul, that number is 6.3 points per 100.
LeBron's value gets underrated Imo because of his 2 teammates.
And Lebron's win shares are 19.3. CP3's are 13.9.
I'm not 100% sure I trust this stat, but it is a pretty wide margin.
Posted on 5/6/13 at 11:51 am to bobbyray21
quote:CP3 missed more games than LeBron. 6 fewer games and 600 fewer minutes. If Cp3 played LeBron minutes, his WS would be around 17.2.
And Lebron's win shares are 19.3. CP3's are 13.9.
I'm not 100% sure I trust this stat, but it is a pretty wide margin.
This post was edited on 5/6/13 at 11:55 am
Posted on 5/6/13 at 11:52 am to bobbyray21
FYI
Win Shares
1. LeBron James-MIA 19.3
2. Kevin Durant-OKC 18.9
3. Chris Paul-LAC 13.9
4. James Harden-HOU 12.8
5. Russell Westbrook-OKC 11.6
6. Marc Gasol-MEM 11.5
7. Stephen Curry-GSW 11.2
8. Kobe Bryant-LAL 10.9
9. Deron Williams-BRK 10.9
10. Blake Griffin-LAC 10.6
11. Mike Conley-MEM 9.9
12. George Hill-IND 9.7
13. Dwyane Wade-MIA 9.6
14. Carmelo Anthony-NYK 9.5
15. Serge Ibaka-OKC 9.4
16. Tony Parker-SAS 9.4
17. Tyson Chandler-NYK 9.3
18. David Lee-GSW 9.1
19. David West-IND 9.1
20. Paul George-IND 9.0
Win Shares
1. LeBron James-MIA 19.3
2. Kevin Durant-OKC 18.9
3. Chris Paul-LAC 13.9
4. James Harden-HOU 12.8
5. Russell Westbrook-OKC 11.6
6. Marc Gasol-MEM 11.5
7. Stephen Curry-GSW 11.2
8. Kobe Bryant-LAL 10.9
9. Deron Williams-BRK 10.9
10. Blake Griffin-LAC 10.6
11. Mike Conley-MEM 9.9
12. George Hill-IND 9.7
13. Dwyane Wade-MIA 9.6
14. Carmelo Anthony-NYK 9.5
15. Serge Ibaka-OKC 9.4
16. Tony Parker-SAS 9.4
17. Tyson Chandler-NYK 9.3
18. David Lee-GSW 9.1
19. David West-IND 9.1
20. Paul George-IND 9.0
Posted on 5/6/13 at 11:53 am to jturn17
quote:
CP3 missed more games than LeBron. 6 fewer games and 600 fewer minutes. If Cp3 played LeBron minutes, his WS would be around 17.2.
Win Shares Per 48 Minutes
1. LeBron James-MIA .322
2. Kevin Durant-OKC .291
3. Chris Paul-LAC .287
4. Tyson Chandler-NYK .207
5. Tony Parker-SAS .206
6. James Harden-HOU .206
7. Marc Gasol-MEM .197
8. Tiago Splitter-SAS .197
9. Blake Griffin-LAC .196
10. Russell Westbrook-OKC .195
11. Dwyane Wade-MIA .192
12. Tim Duncan-SAS .191
13. Brook Lopez-BRK .191
14. Carmelo Anthony-NYK .184
15. Deron Williams-BRK .184
16. Serge Ibaka-OKC .181
17. Stephen Curry-GSW .180
18. David West-IND .179
19. George Hill-IND .177
20. Chris Bosh-MIA .175
Posted on 5/6/13 at 11:56 am to jturn17
quote:
Both of those are insane numbers. CP3 just put up the 18th best WS/48 season ever. Durant was 16th. And LeBron's was 5th. A great season full of great performances.
agreed
Posted on 5/6/13 at 11:56 am to bobbyray21
quote:
Win Shares Per 48 Minutes
1. LeBron James-MIA .322
2. Kevin Durant-OKC .291
3. Chris Paul-LAC .287
I hope people appreciate how insane these are. These are 3 of the Top 18 seasons ever recorded according to WS/48. LeBron's was 5th best. Durant's was 16th. CP3s was 18th.
Edit: But it was Melo that gets the other first place vote. :(
This post was edited on 5/6/13 at 11:57 am
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