re: College Football Week 1/Futures Bet Thread

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I expect UW win comfortably. However, I don't like to bet big margins in week one, especially between power 5 teams. Rutgers is still going to have some decent athletes and offenses tend to play sloppy in week one.

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It comes down to how much you trust Jake Browning.

Rutgers will be bad but they have the pieces to grind out a cover. They are experienced on the offensive/defensive line(strength of Rutgers is in the trenches) and return a full stable of running backs. I could see them just milking clock and playing to keep it respectable. QB is the offensive weakness for Rutgers.

Rutgers back 7 on defense will be terrible so its up to Jake Browning to do the damage there. I don't think they can get the cover done with Myles Gaskin alone. I live in Seattle so I watched a lot of UW football games last year. The talent is there no question about it, so the question is whether or not the maturity is ready. It's still a young team that will be dealing with hype and expectations unlike last year. Last year they were expected to not even go bowling based on all the UW grads I work with.

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Hey bud... Still mad you can't pick winners? Just tail, baby!

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I tailed you last year

You should review this thread and remind yourself that you tailed me to success and admitted as much.

You're welcome.

Speaking of Sports Insights though... Good article posted.

The need for volume in contrarian NCAAF betting. Wait for a massive game with RLM and profit long term.

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Post the sheets when you have time and thanks again

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I will, but the thing is, I don't know how much to trust them

When my excel spreadsheets differ wildly from the Las Vegas line, of course the first instinct is to say "Wow! Great value!" and play the team my excel sheet says is getting value.

If only it were that easy.

Then I realize "No way do my simple excel macros know more than professional Las Vegas oddsmakers". Then I say "Las Vegas probably knows more than me, so their line is probably correct and my excel spreadsheet is probably wrong". So then I re-examine the matchup to see if there is anything missing and try to figure out why the Las Vegas line differs from my data.

But then I say "Don't overthink this. I have to trust my data, If your data says there is value in that team, you have to trust your numbers".

It never ends. I'd say prior experience says its about 50-50 in terms of my data being correct, and the Las Vegas oddsmakers knowing more than me.

I will say this - When it looks too easy, it probably isn't. When it looks like a side is free money, it probably isn't. At the same time, don't overthink things.

For sure

Megalocks from Covers whose hitting 60% started his own site which looks good

149 for the year for all his write ups. Hes doing well in MLB

Dude deserves it. He has some solid info

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Nice. Im going large on Clemson along with LSU

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I'd be wary on Clemson or Auburn. If I HAD to pick, it would be Auburn if I could get +7 or so.

Clemson just lost their starting defensive lineman, and i believe previously lost one of their starting DB

AU's QB is too much of a wildcard.

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To me, part of the fun is analyzing things myself. Of course I do read other comments (see this thread) but I don't know why you would tail someone 24/7

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Exactly

If I had info that consistently returned me betting profits, I'd guard that shite, I would never go tout. Anyone who is good enough at betting will move lines, I wouldn't give that info away. Any edge you can get you need to safeguard, and not let the books get a chance to catch up to you.

That's why I don't trust any tout, period. It's actually why I hate touts. They are scammers. If you really were a long term winner, you have a license to print money, and would safeguard the secrets of that license to print money at all costs.