re: College Football Week 1/Futures Bet Thread

I capped Florida-UMass yesterday and Mississippi State-South Alabama today

Both my head and excel lean toward Florida, and both my head/excel say that there is no profitable side in the MSU/USA game.

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Betting market specialist checking in... Who really cares about on-field analysis anyway?

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Have you checked up on any RLM yet?

I know for the Thursday games, Wake Forest and Appalachian State have been in on the RLM gravy train

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Getting close boys!

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Soon thank goodness. I have done terribly for basketball and baseball. I just get bored and bet on random games.

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Nugget what do the sheets say about Clemson/Auburn?

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Yea

I'm not at work right now but I do recall Clemson being treated favorably

What I do is cycle through every possible spread a half point at a time to show when the side stops being profitable. I want to say the Clemson side was profitable all the way up to -9.5 and -10 is when it stopped showing a profit

In my own capping I basically read some preseason sources I trust(Phil Steele, Bill Connelly) to see what a team brings back, what it loses, how they were last year, what is expected this year, and come up with what the line "should" be. I usually spend about an hour on each team, I do this before running Excel so I am not biased.

In my own capping I determined that the line should be Clemson -10. So I see some value playing them where they are right now at -7 or -7.5. I think Auburn is getting treated a bit too favorably here. Clemson doesn't have many question marks.

I only have 4 games left then I will show my entire roster

I do a lot of my own research with stats. Foxsports normally has a good set up for that stuff. they show some matchups of stats.

I will read covers and stuff like that to see other peoples breakdowns of the games just to get different takes. doesnt really hold much water in my mind

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Clemson doesn't have many question marks.

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Their defense is a big question mark.

Two games stand out to me early. Boston College +4 in Ireland against GA Tech and South Carolina +3.5 at Vandy.

Towles transferred to BC so their offense will improve and they return a top run defense to defend the triple option. Will Muschamp will have USC ready to go for the opener. That game is a must win out the gate for him.

Going into my 6th year betting. Always makes this time of year exciting

I hate these high numbers in the first game of the season. Nebraska has 3 guys on the oline that haven't played a snap of real football. Fresno State is in bad shape but it's like they're a bad FCS team.

UW just isn't that potent on offense.

These two stick out a lot to me

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I hate these high numbers in the first game of the season. Nebraska has 3 guys on the oline that haven't played a snap of real football. Fresno State is in bad shape but it's like they're a bad FCS team.

UW just isn't that potent on offense.

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I took a long look at the Fresno-Nebraska game, and I hate hate hate playing heavy chalk square favorites like that in Week 1, but I think the line should be closer to 33-35. So anything Nebraska under 31 has value, in my opinion. Fresno State is that bad. Crazy how much they have fallen off since 2013. Nebraska was better than their 5-7 record last year and they will improve.

UW is a big head scratcher. I think Rutgers will be hot garbage, but Washington is not a team built to blow people out. UW certainly has the talent and ability to win by 30+, but the question is will they. It's still a young team capable of beating themselves. I think UW was the play at -24, but now its in the 26 range which may be asking too much. My gut says the final score of this game is 34-13 where UW has plenty of chances to cover, but keeps having to settle for FGs or turning the ball over with self inflicted wounds.

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UW just isn't that potent on offense.

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As bad as the offense was last year, the average margin of victory in the 7 wins was 30 points. Last season was basically all blowout wins and close losses. So not sure where the theory came from that UW isn't built to blow out bad teams like Rutgers. The offense should be much improved this year and the defense just as good or better.

If I had to place bets today for week one I'd be on North Carolina and Auburn.