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re: Clayton Kershaws Average Outing in the Playoffs
Posted on 10/24/18 at 9:20 pm to Lester Earl
Posted on 10/24/18 at 9:20 pm to Lester Earl
quote:Kershaw isnt the only one who has this crutch. It applies literally to every single player. I take absolutely no stock in any players performance in the playoffs, good or bad, from a year to year basis. Because each playoff run is completely different with different teams and different circumstances. Acting like 140 innings in a single season is similar to 140 innings over 8 is such a fallacy imo
As dominating as Kershaw has been in the regular season, the sample size argument holds no water. Why the frick does he need this crutch???
This post was edited on 10/24/18 at 9:20 pm
2
Posted on 10/24/18 at 9:26 pm to WestCoastAg
Y’all can talk any advanced stat you want out there. Kershaw is a disastrously bad postseason pitcher.
Posted on 10/24/18 at 9:27 pm to lsupride87
Mate that's like an 8% confidence interval at a 95% confidence level and shite baw. 145 innings is plenty of playoff performance to make a determination.
This post was edited on 10/24/18 at 9:31 pm
Posted on 10/24/18 at 9:27 pm to High C
K
Posted on 10/24/18 at 9:27 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
take absolutely no stock in any players performance in the playoffs, good or bad, from a year to year basis.
of course you dont, because you are in denial about Kershaw.
quote:
Because each playoff run is completely different with different teams and different circumstances
but wait, you guys have told me every time this comes up that stud players are the same are the same are the same, despite the circumstances. Now everything is different?
shite, lsupride was just telling us that every pitch is the same pressure.
Posted on 10/24/18 at 9:33 pm to Lester Earl
quote:so why do I feel the same way about Justin Turner who people keep calling THE GREATEAT POSTSEASON HITTER EVER!!
of course you dont, because you are in denial about Kershaw.
quote:what? I have never said this. I have always said that baseball is weird, stuff happens, and trying to draw long term conclusions from two or three series is dumb and Kershaw just happens to be the prime example of this. I would feel completely different if Kershaws walk and strikeout numbers were in line with his spike in homers. Hell, I'd even feel differently if he had all his numbers spiked and his ERA was way down. Ask me how I feel about his game 2 performance against Atlanta? I'm not super high on it
but wait, you guys have told me every time this comes up that stud players are the same are the same are the same, despite the circumstances. Now everything is different?
Posted on 10/24/18 at 9:39 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
so why do I feel the same way about Justin Turner who people keep calling THE GREATEAT POSTSEASON HITTER EVER!!
You don't have state that he is the best ever. That is a little over the top.
To not acknowledge that he is a good postseason hitter is kind of weird though.
quote:
, and trying to draw long term conclusions from two or three series is dumb and Kershaw just happens to be the prime example of this.
It comes to a point that you are what you are. You, along with everyone else thinks he is inconsistent. You just want to play it all off as random. Dude is the best pitcher you've ever seen in your life. And you want to think it is random every time he gets hit around in the playoffs. lol ok
Posted on 10/24/18 at 9:45 pm to Lester Earl
quote:I acknowledge he has done well in the past but I dont put much stock in that going forward
To not acknowledge that he is a good postseason hitter is kind of weird though.
quote:so how else do you suggest that he keeps basically every single periphery stat in similar ranges to his regular season stats but has a huge spike in runs allowed? Most of his stats that people will turn to when trying to project performance over a 162 game season suggest he is pitching fine, if slightly worse due to his spike in homers given up. But the actual runs given up are way high. I honestly dont know how else to interpret that.
And you want to think it is random every time he gets hit around in the playoffs. lol ok
Posted on 10/24/18 at 9:52 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
so how else do you suggest that he keeps basically every single periphery stat in similar ranges to his regular season stats but has a huge spike in runs allowed
are you saying that his peripherals in his bad starts are the same as his regular season stats?
or are you saying his entire postseason catalog has similar stats?
Posted on 10/24/18 at 9:58 pm to Lester Earl
I'm saying as a whole, his peripheral stats in the playoffs suggest he is pitching fine. The only truly legitimate spike that would suggest hes pitching poorly is his jump in homers given up and because of that, I am more than willing to admit he hasn't pitched as well. I have never said he is pitching as well. I have only argued against the idea that he is pitching poorly
And he has had some starts that he came up on the wrong end of where he ultimately pitched pretty well
And he has had some starts that he came up on the wrong end of where he ultimately pitched pretty well
This post was edited on 10/24/18 at 9:59 pm
Posted on 10/24/18 at 10:05 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
his peripheral stats in the playoffs suggest he is pitching fine
Dude, unless his bad starts have good peripherals(they don’t. More hits/walks/runs), then you don’t really have a point. Everything does not match up because of the bad starts. There really isn’t any more you need to read in to.
It just tells you that when he has been on, he had pitched really really well.
For example
He has 17 appearances with 1 or less BB
15 appearances with 3 or less hits.
His K’s will always be there regardless
You combine one of his really good starts with a bad start & the numbers are not going to look bad. That is essentially what is happening. But you can’t mask the bad starts by saying the peripherals are good when they haven’t been in the bad starts
Posted on 10/24/18 at 10:12 pm to Lester Earl
thats literally the point im making. baseball is weird. its pointless to try to draw long term conclusions on future performance from the playoffs because they are condensing the sport into two or three series
kershaw just happens to be the actual single biggest example of this. he has starts where he is completely and totally dominant, game 1 of last years world series, and then he has starts where he just vomits all over himself, game 5 of that same world series. it literally pops up in the actually series themselves at times. hell, it happened last week
and you cant just sit there and say "his good games keep his peripherals down" and then act like his bad games dont keep his ERA high
kershaw just happens to be the actual single biggest example of this. he has starts where he is completely and totally dominant, game 1 of last years world series, and then he has starts where he just vomits all over himself, game 5 of that same world series. it literally pops up in the actually series themselves at times. hell, it happened last week
and you cant just sit there and say "his good games keep his peripherals down" and then act like his bad games dont keep his ERA high
This post was edited on 10/24/18 at 10:14 pm
Posted on 10/24/18 at 10:19 pm to WestCoastAg
and he has had games that inflate his ERA but his peripherals will tell you he pitched much better. game 4 against the cards in 2014, game 1 against the mets in 2015, game 4 against the nats in 2016 all come to mind
hell, game 4 against the nats in 2016 is ridiculous. he struck out 11, walked 2, and didnt give up a single homer. but he was on the hook for 5 runs because his bullpen couldnt get him a third out in the 7th. his ERA for that game was over 6, but his fip would have been miniscule
hell, game 4 against the nats in 2016 is ridiculous. he struck out 11, walked 2, and didnt give up a single homer. but he was on the hook for 5 runs because his bullpen couldnt get him a third out in the 7th. his ERA for that game was over 6, but his fip would have been miniscule
This post was edited on 10/24/18 at 10:21 pm
Posted on 10/24/18 at 10:21 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
and you cant just sit there and say "his good games keep his peripherals down" and then act like his bad games dont keep his ERA high
Again. He is the best pitcher either of us has ever seen. We shouldn’t even be having this conversation.
Posted on 10/24/18 at 10:22 pm to AlexTheGreat
You have Price playoff numbers? For all the shite he gets, I wonder if they are better or worse.
Posted on 10/24/18 at 10:25 pm to Lester Earl
yes, he is the best pitcher we have ever seen and may ever see again in our lives, but he is not immune to the innate wackiness of baseball when its condensed into three or four starts. i am more than willing to admit he hasnt pitched as well, but that doesnt mean he is pitching poorly
Posted on 10/24/18 at 10:27 pm to Trauma14
prices numbers are actually pretty similar and i have always been a defender of price on here for that exact reason, he just doesnt come up nearly as often as kershaw does. id say kershaw is pitching a little better but price has numbers that suggest he is pitching better than the actual results suggest
Posted on 10/25/18 at 1:05 am to WestCoastAg
quote:
yes, he is the best pitcher we have ever seen and may ever see again in our lives, but he is not immune to the innate wackiness of baseball when its condensed into three or four starts. i am more than willing to admit he hasnt pitched as well, but that doesnt mean he is pitching poorly
So you really think it's just wackiness that about half his bad starts in his whole career since he became the beat pitcher in the NL occur in October?
This post was edited on 10/25/18 at 1:14 am
Posted on 10/25/18 at 1:37 am to AlexTheGreat
Lol at people who think he's the greatest pitcher of our generation. Kershaw would be just another guy if he played in the AL.
Posted on 10/25/18 at 1:58 am to TigahJay
quote:
Lol at people who think he's the greatest pitcher of our generation. Kershaw would be just another guy if he played in the AL.
Ridiculous
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