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CFB Betting Thread Week 13

Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:20 am
Posted by MidnightVibe
Member since Feb 2015
7885 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:20 am
It's hard to believe that this thread hasn't been started already, but i went through four pages and saw nothing, so firing it up.

I know that many did not have a delightful week last week. Me, I made the mistake of spreading myself too thing -- always something that one has to be mindful of very damn week...restraint is hard -- and I cut against what could have been a really really nice Saturday as a result. My most confident games -- which were of course my biggest money games -- were Iowa and UCF and that was #freemoney defined. My lesser confidence stuff missed -- texas tech is a notable example -- and made the Saturday more of a grind thatn I would have liked for it to be.

But being positive is better than being negative, and so onwward I shall march.

Current spreads and odds: LINK


Some of those lines as posted were too good to be true and have moved in the direction I didn't want them to (my guy doesn't take plays until two days prior to games). But there are still a number of games i like.

Early leans
buffalo
iowa
oklahoma
oregon
Houston

Michigan
Florida
nc state
uab
utah state

Posted by Carson123987
Middle Court at the Rec
Member since Jul 2011
66436 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:23 am to
got buried in CFB last week then went 4-0 +$550 in NFL LOL.

Like OU and Wash early.
Posted by MidnightVibe
Member since Feb 2015
7885 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:29 am to
quote:

got buried in CFB last week then went 4-0 +$550 in NFL LOL.


Way to bounce back
Posted by Winston Cup
Dallas Cowboys Fan
Member since May 2016
65497 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:29 am to
ill take ball st +17.5 tonight
Posted by MidnightVibe
Member since Feb 2015
7885 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 2:29 pm to
No action for me tonight.

Anybody have thoughts on the egg bowl?
Posted by TexasTiger08
Member since Oct 2006
25528 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 4:23 pm to
I am 26-20 on the year. Last week of picks for a group I’m in is this week. It’s simple, pick 4 games. I’m tied for the lead. I need me 4 locks after 1-3 last week.
Posted by TexasTiger08
Member since Oct 2006
25528 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 4:37 pm to
quote:

egg bowl


I’m starting to have a strong lean toward Moo State. I think the Bulldogs are hungry after the loss last year, coupled with Fitzgerald injury.

State has played well as of late, even in losses. Ole Miss trending the opposite direction. I think defense beats offense.

Hoping the line gets to 10.
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25283 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 4:53 pm to
quote:

Anybody have thoughts on the egg bowl?


Ole Miss is not going to lay down, although the matchup on paper heavily favors MSU.

Weird game - line seems perfect.
Posted by Jwho77
cyperspace
Member since Sep 2003
76677 posts
Posted on 11/21/18 at 12:03 am to
I was awful early in the day and then great late for a winning day last week. Still pissed how UAB kept shooting themselves in the foot not to cover.

Early plays

SMU -2.5 (got at -2)
LA Tech -11
Wisconsin -10
Posted by MidnightVibe
Member since Feb 2015
7885 posts
Posted on 11/21/18 at 12:29 am to
quote:

Ole Miss is not going to lay down, although the matchup on paper heavily favors MSU.


This is the reason some often shy away from rivalry games. And it's the same reason that I actually love playing rivalry games.

You know both teams are coming to play, so you can toss any "situational analysis" out the window as being irrelevant. Which focuses the analysis to "who is better at football, and how much better are we talking here."

I believe the notion that rivalry games tend to produce upsets is a myth and that if someone took the time and energy to actually crunch those numbers -- something which I will not be doing, to be clear -- I would be willing to wager that upset rates in games that we can predefine and set-aside as "rivalry games' are less than the average rate of occurrence across the board.

Hmmm...I wonder if somebody ever has done such an analysis?
Posted by unotiger21
Member since Sep 2010
934 posts
Posted on 11/21/18 at 8:28 am to
Weather is supposed to be bad in Pullman Friday. Who do y’all think the bad weather impacts more?
Posted by barry
Location, Location, Location
Member since Aug 2006
50346 posts
Posted on 11/21/18 at 9:53 am to
quote:

got buried in CFB last week then went 4-0 +$550 in NFL LOL.


I find every year I do way better in CFB weeks 1-6, and get crushed in the NFL and then it flips in the second half of the season.

As i try to take my P&G glasses off, someone convince me from just dumping funds on LSU +3. Line has been moving the other way for a while and I just don't get it.
Posted by HailToTheChiz
Back in Auburn
Member since Aug 2010
48976 posts
Posted on 11/21/18 at 9:55 am to
i really like:

LSU
FL
OU
Ala
Posted by Lawyered
The Sip
Member since Oct 2016
29322 posts
Posted on 11/21/18 at 9:57 am to
quote:

Anybody have thoughts on the egg bowl?


SO i have some thoughts.


oM is doing a BOGO for ticket sales if that gives you any indication at how apathetic the fan base is.

Fitz will run and run and run against our D.

I thin their Dline will shut our already not good run game down and make us have to pass and against good Defenses, we don't do that well.

We won't be able to play a shootout against the state D.

We may move the ball through the air, but our offense notoriously bogs down in the red zone and settling for field goals won't cut it when we give up TD's every possession on Defense

State 42 Om 17
This post was edited on 11/21/18 at 10:05 am
Posted by MidnightVibe
Member since Feb 2015
7885 posts
Posted on 11/21/18 at 10:19 am to
quote:

As i try to take my P&G glasses off, someone convince me from just dumping funds on LSU +3. Line has been moving the other way for a while and I just don't get it.


I don't see either side of that one being #freemoney. I see that as a game that could easily go either way.
Posted by MidnightVibe
Member since Feb 2015
7885 posts
Posted on 11/21/18 at 10:21 am to
quote:

oM is doing a BOGO for ticket sales if that gives you any indication at how apathetic the fan base is.

Fitz will run and run and run against our D.

I thin their Dline will shut our already not good run game down and make us have to pass and against good Defenses, we don't do that well.

We won't be able to play a shootout against the state D.

We may move the ball through the air, but our offense notoriously bogs down in the red zone and settling for field goals won't cut it when we give up TD's every possession on Defense

State 42 Om 17



I appreciate the analysis. I'm either going to bet on Cowbell or I'm not gonna have any action on Thursday. I'm leaning towards betting on Cowbell.
Posted by Winston Cup
Dallas Cowboys Fan
Member since May 2016
65497 posts
Posted on 11/21/18 at 11:00 am to
the only reason i am hesitant to lay the 11 is that ole miss needs 1 more win to get bowl eligible. but do they want to go to a bowl? ole miss has lost 4 in a row after getting their 5th win. have been playing much more competitive in the last 6 than earlier in the year. maybe they are buying in/coach starting to implement?

texas
coastal car
west va
wash st
if im feeling ballsy kent st +13.5
Posted by Lawyered
The Sip
Member since Oct 2016
29322 posts
Posted on 11/21/18 at 11:04 am to
quote:

am hesitant to lay the 11 is that ole miss needs 1 more win to get bowl eligible. but do they want to go to a bowl?


Bowl ban bruh...

Our season is over after tomorrow night no matter what thank God.
Posted by DallasTiger45
Member since May 2012
8429 posts
Posted on 11/21/18 at 11:30 am to
I’m on

Grinders/Clanga/Cowbell -10 -115
OU pk 2 units
Washington +4 -112

Posted by bstew3006
318
Member since Dec 2007
12576 posts
Posted on 11/21/18 at 4:11 pm to
65-37-1 YTD

Currently on
OU -2 W
MSU -10.5 W
MSU U61W

Games Circled
Michigan -4 Lol
LSU +3W
Houston +7 L
BC -7 L
Kentucky -17 W
OK St -4
Maryland +14 L
Bama O52 W
Bama -23 W
UCF -14 W
WSU -2 L
This post was edited on 11/25/18 at 4:05 pm
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