re: CFB bets week 7

Good luck to you, sir. "Cheers". In reality I thought I was burning that 80, but I made it through Thursday. It was highly unlikely to say the least.

money line parlay...which of these should I remove?


r
10/15/2011 3:00 PM College Football 115 Florida State* -430  vs Duke
10/15/2011 7:00 PM College Football 119 Clemson* -300  vs Maryland
10/15/2011 3:30 PM College Football 123 Georgia Tech* -290  vs Virginia
10/15/2011 12:20 PM College Football 125 South Carolina* -145  vs Mississippi State
10/15/2011 2:00 PM College Football 130 Wyoming* -380  vs UNLV
10/15/2011 12:00 PM College Football 140 Pittsburgh U* -245  vs Utah
10/15/2011 3:30 PM College Football 147 LSU* -850  vs Tennessee U
10/15/2011 3:30 PM College Football 150 Washington U* -750  vs Colorado
10/15/2011 12:00 PM College Football 158 Cincinnati U* -570  vs Louisville
10/15/2011 3:30 PM College Football 160 Ohio* -620  vs Ball State
10/15/2011 7:30 PM College Football 173 Stanford* -1450  vs Washington State
10/15/2011 7:00 PM College Football 175 Georgia* -450  vs Vanderbilt
10/15/2011 3:30 PM College Football 177 Oklahoma State* -270  vs Texas
10/15/2011 7:00 PM College Football 183 East Carolina* -550  vs Memphis
10/15/2011 7:00 PM College Football 188 Iowa* -250  vs Northwestern
10/15/2011 7:00 PM College Football 198 Troy* -325  vs UL Monroe
Risking $10.00 To Win $434.90 

quote:

---

The only team on my parlay this week that isn't being talked about much here is Bama over Ole Miss by 27. I thought this one was a sure thing, maybe I've missed something?

---

You're with the public on that one. It's probably a safe pick. Ole Miss will be without their starting center and RB from an offense that hasn't looked good for the most part. Bama shouldn't have trouble completely shutting down the Ole Miss offense.

The other side of the argument is Ole Miss is coming off a bye week, Saban will sit on an early lead, and Ole Miss may pull off a garbage TD on a trick play when the game is out of reach.

Iowa always scares me

Just for shits:

10/14/11 3:28pm $2.00 $39.44 Pending 21 Team Parlay

Pending 10/16/11 1:00pm NFL Football 202 Green Bay Packers -900* vs St. Louis Rams
Pending 10/16/11 1:00pm NFL Football 204 Pittsburgh Steelers -600* vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Pending 10/15/11 12:00pm College Football 109 Purdue +21 -450* vs Penn State
Pending 10/15/11 12:00pm College Football 112 Wisconsin -24½ -1500* vs Indiana
Pending 10/15/11 12:00pm College Football 117 Toledo -310* vs Bowling Green
Pending 10/15/11 7:00pm College Football 119 Clemson -300* vs Maryland
Pending 10/15/11 1:00pm College Football 128 Temple -1400* vs Buffalo U
Pending 10/15/11 10:15pm College Football 144 Oregon -650* vs Arizona State
Pending 10/15/11 3:30pm College Football 147 LSU -13½ -180* vs Tennessee U
Pending 10/15/11 3:30pm College Football 150 Washington U -750* vs Colorado
Pending 10/15/11 12:00pm College Football 152 Michigan State +7 -550* vs Michigan
Pending 10/15/11 12:00pm College Football 158 Cincinnati U -570* vs Louisville
Pending 10/15/11 3:30pm College Football 160 Ohio -620* vs Ball State
Pending 10/15/11 6:00pm College Football 163 Alabama -6000* vs Mississippi
Pending 10/15/11 9:15pm College Football 165 Oklahoma -20½ -1500* vs Kansas
Pending 10/15/11 4:00pm College Football 168 Nevada -8500* vs New Mexico
Pending 10/15/11 6:00pm College Football 171 Boise State -15000* vs Colorado State
Pending 10/15/11 7:30pm College Football 173 Stanford -10 -650* vs Washington State
Pending 10/15/11 3:30pm College Football 181 South Florida +4 -770* vs Connecticut
Pending 10/15/11 8:00pm College Football 192 Tulsa -1400* vs UAB
Pending 10/15/11 5:00pm College Football 196 UL Lafayette -1 -355* vs North Texas

quote:

---

With the way he slings it and the trouble TAMU had stopping Ark's pass offense, RG3 might just win this one outright

---

Our models feel the same way. TAMU has allowed 530ypg @ 5.5yppl to the L3 (OkSt, Ark, and TTU) all of which are similar to Baylor O (563 @ 7.7yppl). Even worse TAMU has allowed 446ypg @7.6ypa passing in those games, and Baylor is ave 10.8ypa (+3.0ypa) TY.

Using just those stats as a benchmark for TAMU we project 560-570yds for Baylor @ 7.0yppl including 9.5ypa. In that scenario we get a 50-38 Baylor W. Using the entire season statistics for both teams we project 35-41 for Baylor over 75% of the time and 38-41 for TAMU in all but one model (which has them at 33 points).

The ML is currently going off at +280 which implies a win ratio of between 1:4 and 1:3. Given the above and our cross situational analytics we think Baylor stands a 1:2 (or 50% change) of winning SU and think this is a good spot to shave off about 15-20% of your straight line bet on Baylor for a ML wager.

Our Worse Case outcome (TAMU W 41-29) occurs about 33-40% of the time which is why we didn't rate the play higher, but given the outcome distribution a ML is still warranted.

Best of luck to both of us on Baylor this week!

They did'nt get blown out by ND. They beat ND

quote:

---

They did'nt get blown out by ND. They beat ND

---

Michigan beat ND. Michigan State got bitched by ND

hmm so im guaranteed to win $10 tonight yet i think im still gonna but some money on the under.