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Betting question: how does someone say “Vegas cleaned up”

Posted on 9/5/18 at 9:41 pm
Posted by kjntgr
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2004
8488 posts
Posted on 9/5/18 at 9:41 pm
It was my understanding that Vegas sets/changes the line in order to get even money on both sides

So how do they win or lose?
This post was edited on 9/5/18 at 9:42 pm
Posted by LSU-MNCBABY
Knightsgate
Member since Jan 2004
24358 posts
Posted on 9/5/18 at 9:43 pm to
when the dumbass public all herds over to a line regardless of its movement
Posted by FulshearTiger
Member since Jul 2015
5276 posts
Posted on 9/5/18 at 9:43 pm to
Well if they theoretically got "even money", they would collect all of the juice on the bets. Do you know anything about betting - serious question?
Posted by kjntgr
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2004
8488 posts
Posted on 9/5/18 at 9:45 pm to
Obviously not

Why don’t you explain it to be your high ness
Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
82031 posts
Posted on 9/5/18 at 9:45 pm to
quote:

It was my understanding that Vegas sets/changes the line in order to get even money on both sides


Sure, but sometimes they take strong positions
Posted by SPEEDY
2005 Tiger Smack Poster of the Year
Member since Dec 2003
83374 posts
Posted on 9/5/18 at 9:45 pm to
Posted by Jones
Member since Oct 2005
90528 posts
Posted on 9/5/18 at 9:46 pm to
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vigorish



quote:

Well if they theoretically got "even money", they would collect all of the juice on the bets. Do you know anything about betting - serious question?



He doesnt. Thats why he is asking the question dickhead
Posted by TheWalrus
Member since Dec 2012
40544 posts
Posted on 9/5/18 at 10:26 pm to
While a logical assumption, it’s incorrect. Vegas frequently sets lines that get heavily one-sided action, typically hoping to prey on public misconceptions.
Posted by DallasTiger45
Member since May 2012
8428 posts
Posted on 9/5/18 at 10:35 pm to
Don’t feel bad, your “understanding” is a myth that is believed by many.

1) it’s incredibly hard to set one number that gets an even split of money.

2) even if they could do it every time, they probably wouldn’t. Their goal is to maximize profit, not play it as safe as possible. Same reason investors put their money in the market and not in a low yield savings account.
Posted by FulshearTiger
Member since Jul 2015
5276 posts
Posted on 9/5/18 at 10:41 pm to
quote:

He doesnt. Thats why he is asking the question dickhead


frick you a-hole I wasn't being a dick. I said serious question because I don't want to offend someone explaining what -110 means to someone that has a basic knowledge of gambling. There was nothing wrong with my question based on the information in the OP.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
164137 posts
Posted on 9/5/18 at 10:41 pm to
quote:

While a logical assumption, it’s incorrect. Vegas frequently sets lines that get heavily one-sided action, typically hoping to prey on public misconceptions.

Miami -3 is a classic example.

They liked LSU in the game. They set the Miami line low because people will see the #8 team only needing to cover 3 points. The stupid public loves favorites. Something like 80% of the money was on Miami at one point.

LSU wins.
Posted by bayoucracka
Member since Sep 2015
6815 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 12:08 am to
This can also refer to parlays, teasers, etc. because they make up a decent part of a book’s action. If a couple big public favorites lose outright, they usually do well. But, just like with info on betting percentages, I wouldn’t make it a habit to trust what you hear from sportsbooks.
Posted by 632627
LA
Member since Dec 2011
12762 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 12:28 am to
quote:


They liked LSU in the game. They set the Miami line low because people will see the #8 team only needing to cover 3 points. The stupid public loves favorites. Something like 80% of the money was on Miami at one point.


This is wrong. The lines are set by and provided to the sports books by third party bookmakers.

Vegas casinos aren’t interested in outsmarting the public. The goal is to get money on each side as close to 50/50 as possible and collect the vigorish. This is the service provided to the sportsbooks by the bookmakers- set a line that will get 50/50 money.

A casinos favorite gambler is a slot player, as slots provide a guaranteed take for the casino, with no chance of loss. For the same reason, the sports books are content with the vig.

That said, there are times when the money can end up 80/20, and when you hear the term “Vegas cleaned up on a game” it means the side with 20% of the money won.
Posted by volfan30
Member since Jun 2010
40949 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 1:21 am to
Much more complicated than that.

One book may tip its lines in favor of one side in order to sell to another book that has significant liability on a side. Bookmakers/books are working together a fair amount when it comes to limiting liability.
This post was edited on 9/6/18 at 1:22 am
Posted by LSUTigers00884
Lafayette
Member since Oct 2011
1160 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 6:59 am to
I tend to think it’s both depending on the game.

Vegas wants 50/50 on some games while others they want 80/20.

I do think Miami vs LSU was a great example of them wanting 80% of the money on Miami. This is why they NEVER moved the line; not once.

Although I can’t find the article that said 80% of money was on Miami.

Consider this: if 10 games is 80/20, and Vegas is right 5/10 times, they still make their 10% :)

^ this is why it’s “both” not either/or.
Posted by jimithing11
Dillon, Texas
Member since Mar 2011
22472 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 7:14 am to
It’s an interesting discussion. But the more interesting part is how the win rate usually hovers around 5 percent when all is said and done. That’s why you see the AGA balling at an integrity fee, because it’d be taken right off the top as opposed to a fee off the win rate

If you are ever bored, go look at the Nevada Gaming Commission’s annual numbers. You’ll see Sports gambling is such a small percentage of earnings compared to card games.
Posted by 632627
LA
Member since Dec 2011
12762 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 7:38 am to
quote:

Much more complicated than that.

One book may tip its lines in favor of one side in order to sell to another book that has significant liability on a side. Bookmakers/books are working together a fair amount when it comes to limiting liability.


Which is exactly why they do not want all the money on one side. It’s similar to reinsurance; they want to offload/decrease risk and exposure. Small books will actually offload bets to other books if there’s too much action one way.

Further using the LSU/Miami example, if “Vegas” knew LSU was going to win, so did the sharps. Small public bets on Miami are balanced out by big sharp bets the other way. I believe the line teetered between 3 and 3.5. It takes a lot of money to move a spread off a key number, with 3 and 7 being the two most important numbers.

There were no shenanigans going on with Miami and LSU. Oddsmakers simply made the top 10 team a small favorite. Lines are typically much farther off (inaccurate) earlier in the season and tighten up as the season goes on and the oddsmakers get a better grasp on the team.
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
25455 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 8:20 am to
quote:

I do think Miami vs LSU was a great example of them wanting 80% of the money on Miami. This is why they NEVER moved the line; not once.


It opened at -1.5 and got all the way to -3.5 at some places.
Posted by 632627
LA
Member since Dec 2011
12762 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 9:38 am to
quote:

It opened at -1.5 and got all the way to -3.5 at some places.


i didn't track the game from the opening line, but if this is true, it completely debunks the theory that "they" were begging for money on miami and wanted to clean up knowing LSU would cover.
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
25455 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 9:44 am to
quote:

i didn't track the game from the opening line, but if this is true, it completely debunks the theory that "they" were begging for money on miami and wanted to clean up knowing LSU would cover.


Line Movement

I saw it on 5dimes at 1.5 up to 3.either way that link shows plenty of movement
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