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Message
Betting question: how does someone say “Vegas cleaned up”
Posted on 9/5/18 at 9:41 pm
Posted on 9/5/18 at 9:41 pm
It was my understanding that Vegas sets/changes the line in order to get even money on both sides
So how do they win or lose?
So how do they win or lose?
This post was edited on 9/5/18 at 9:42 pm
Posted on 9/5/18 at 9:43 pm to kjntgr
when the dumbass public all herds over to a line regardless of its movement
Posted on 9/5/18 at 9:43 pm to kjntgr
Well if they theoretically got "even money", they would collect all of the juice on the bets. Do you know anything about betting - serious question?
Posted on 9/5/18 at 9:45 pm to FulshearTiger
Obviously not
Why don’t you explain it to be your high ness
Why don’t you explain it to be your high ness
Posted on 9/5/18 at 9:45 pm to kjntgr
quote:
It was my understanding that Vegas sets/changes the line in order to get even money on both sides
Sure, but sometimes they take strong positions
Posted on 9/5/18 at 9:46 pm to kjntgr
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vigorish
He doesnt. Thats why he is asking the question dickhead
quote:
Well if they theoretically got "even money", they would collect all of the juice on the bets. Do you know anything about betting - serious question?
He doesnt. Thats why he is asking the question dickhead
Posted on 9/5/18 at 10:26 pm to kjntgr
While a logical assumption, it’s incorrect. Vegas frequently sets lines that get heavily one-sided action, typically hoping to prey on public misconceptions.
Posted on 9/5/18 at 10:35 pm to kjntgr
Don’t feel bad, your “understanding” is a myth that is believed by many.
1) it’s incredibly hard to set one number that gets an even split of money.
2) even if they could do it every time, they probably wouldn’t. Their goal is to maximize profit, not play it as safe as possible. Same reason investors put their money in the market and not in a low yield savings account.
1) it’s incredibly hard to set one number that gets an even split of money.
2) even if they could do it every time, they probably wouldn’t. Their goal is to maximize profit, not play it as safe as possible. Same reason investors put their money in the market and not in a low yield savings account.
Posted on 9/5/18 at 10:41 pm to Jones
quote:
He doesnt. Thats why he is asking the question dickhead
frick you a-hole I wasn't being a dick. I said serious question because I don't want to offend someone explaining what -110 means to someone that has a basic knowledge of gambling. There was nothing wrong with my question based on the information in the OP.
Posted on 9/5/18 at 10:41 pm to TheWalrus
quote:
While a logical assumption, it’s incorrect. Vegas frequently sets lines that get heavily one-sided action, typically hoping to prey on public misconceptions.
Miami -3 is a classic example.
They liked LSU in the game. They set the Miami line low because people will see the #8 team only needing to cover 3 points. The stupid public loves favorites. Something like 80% of the money was on Miami at one point.
LSU wins.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 12:08 am to kjntgr
This can also refer to parlays, teasers, etc. because they make up a decent part of a book’s action. If a couple big public favorites lose outright, they usually do well. But, just like with info on betting percentages, I wouldn’t make it a habit to trust what you hear from sportsbooks.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 12:28 am to The Boat
quote:
They liked LSU in the game. They set the Miami line low because people will see the #8 team only needing to cover 3 points. The stupid public loves favorites. Something like 80% of the money was on Miami at one point.
This is wrong. The lines are set by and provided to the sports books by third party bookmakers.
Vegas casinos aren’t interested in outsmarting the public. The goal is to get money on each side as close to 50/50 as possible and collect the vigorish. This is the service provided to the sportsbooks by the bookmakers- set a line that will get 50/50 money.
A casinos favorite gambler is a slot player, as slots provide a guaranteed take for the casino, with no chance of loss. For the same reason, the sports books are content with the vig.
That said, there are times when the money can end up 80/20, and when you hear the term “Vegas cleaned up on a game” it means the side with 20% of the money won.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 1:21 am to 632627
Much more complicated than that.
One book may tip its lines in favor of one side in order to sell to another book that has significant liability on a side. Bookmakers/books are working together a fair amount when it comes to limiting liability.
One book may tip its lines in favor of one side in order to sell to another book that has significant liability on a side. Bookmakers/books are working together a fair amount when it comes to limiting liability.
This post was edited on 9/6/18 at 1:22 am
Posted on 9/6/18 at 6:59 am to kjntgr
I tend to think it’s both depending on the game.
Vegas wants 50/50 on some games while others they want 80/20.
I do think Miami vs LSU was a great example of them wanting 80% of the money on Miami. This is why they NEVER moved the line; not once.
Although I can’t find the article that said 80% of money was on Miami.
Consider this: if 10 games is 80/20, and Vegas is right 5/10 times, they still make their 10% :)
^ this is why it’s “both” not either/or.
Vegas wants 50/50 on some games while others they want 80/20.
I do think Miami vs LSU was a great example of them wanting 80% of the money on Miami. This is why they NEVER moved the line; not once.
Although I can’t find the article that said 80% of money was on Miami.
Consider this: if 10 games is 80/20, and Vegas is right 5/10 times, they still make their 10% :)
^ this is why it’s “both” not either/or.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 7:14 am to kjntgr
It’s an interesting discussion. But the more interesting part is how the win rate usually hovers around 5 percent when all is said and done. That’s why you see the AGA balling at an integrity fee, because it’d be taken right off the top as opposed to a fee off the win rate
If you are ever bored, go look at the Nevada Gaming Commission’s annual numbers. You’ll see Sports gambling is such a small percentage of earnings compared to card games.
If you are ever bored, go look at the Nevada Gaming Commission’s annual numbers. You’ll see Sports gambling is such a small percentage of earnings compared to card games.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 7:38 am to volfan30
quote:
Much more complicated than that.
One book may tip its lines in favor of one side in order to sell to another book that has significant liability on a side. Bookmakers/books are working together a fair amount when it comes to limiting liability.
Which is exactly why they do not want all the money on one side. It’s similar to reinsurance; they want to offload/decrease risk and exposure. Small books will actually offload bets to other books if there’s too much action one way.
Further using the LSU/Miami example, if “Vegas” knew LSU was going to win, so did the sharps. Small public bets on Miami are balanced out by big sharp bets the other way. I believe the line teetered between 3 and 3.5. It takes a lot of money to move a spread off a key number, with 3 and 7 being the two most important numbers.
There were no shenanigans going on with Miami and LSU. Oddsmakers simply made the top 10 team a small favorite. Lines are typically much farther off (inaccurate) earlier in the season and tighten up as the season goes on and the oddsmakers get a better grasp on the team.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 8:20 am to LSUTigers00884
quote:
I do think Miami vs LSU was a great example of them wanting 80% of the money on Miami. This is why they NEVER moved the line; not once.
It opened at -1.5 and got all the way to -3.5 at some places.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 9:38 am to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
It opened at -1.5 and got all the way to -3.5 at some places.
i didn't track the game from the opening line, but if this is true, it completely debunks the theory that "they" were begging for money on miami and wanted to clean up knowing LSU would cover.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 9:44 am to 632627
quote:
i didn't track the game from the opening line, but if this is true, it completely debunks the theory that "they" were begging for money on miami and wanted to clean up knowing LSU would cover.
Line Movement
I saw it on 5dimes at 1.5 up to 3.either way that link shows plenty of movement
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