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Are we pretty certain the #1 pick this year (NBA) won't be the best player?
Posted on 5/18/22 at 12:54 pm
Posted on 5/18/22 at 12:54 pm
There is a clear, 3-man tier at the top with Chet, Banchero, and Smith. Smith seems to be the most likely player to go 1.1. Of the 3, there are huge red flags or pretty defined ceilings. Smith seems to have an extremely high floor but will not be a #1 option on offense. Chet can be a mix of Jokic/Durant, but it's unlikely b/c of his weird body and utter lack of bulk/strength. Banchero seems like he will never be that good on defense.
Sitting behind them are guys who are potential studs in a pretty big field. Ivey, Sharpe, Mathurin, Griffin, Washington, or hell, even Williams/Duren.
So this thread isn't trying to argue "there is no clear #1". It's arguing that whomever picks (likely Smith) #1 will have to fully admit that they believe that he's unlikely to be the best player down the road.
Sitting behind them are guys who are potential studs in a pretty big field. Ivey, Sharpe, Mathurin, Griffin, Washington, or hell, even Williams/Duren.
So this thread isn't trying to argue "there is no clear #1". It's arguing that whomever picks (likely Smith) #1 will have to fully admit that they believe that he's unlikely to be the best player down the road.
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Posted on 5/18/22 at 12:56 pm to SlowFlowPro
I like Ivey and Murray
Would probably go Jabari Jr. first
Would probably go Jabari Jr. first
Posted on 5/18/22 at 1:01 pm to SlowFlowPro
I think this is a case where people are probably being overly contrarian. I’ll only mention a few of the players, guys who I have watched many times, with one notable exception.
Griffin is slow-footed and can’t attack the basket in the halfcourt . He is a fantastic shooter who can create his own shot on the perimeter, but he is the epitome of a third option on offense or maybe a future 6th man on a championship team. Banchero is a much better defender than Griffin.
So I’m unsure how Smith can be criticized while Griffin is more extreme in terms of his limits.
As for Sharpe, literally no one has seen him in a competitive game, so he’s a real mystery. Dante Exum was a similar mystery. He may be a fantastic player, but anyone who is super high on Sharpe is guessing.
I agree that Chet is a tough guy to assess. Watching him against elite athletes or just big guys last year showed he will not be an instant plug and play guy.
Griffin is slow-footed and can’t attack the basket in the halfcourt . He is a fantastic shooter who can create his own shot on the perimeter, but he is the epitome of a third option on offense or maybe a future 6th man on a championship team. Banchero is a much better defender than Griffin.
So I’m unsure how Smith can be criticized while Griffin is more extreme in terms of his limits.
As for Sharpe, literally no one has seen him in a competitive game, so he’s a real mystery. Dante Exum was a similar mystery. He may be a fantastic player, but anyone who is super high on Sharpe is guessing.
I agree that Chet is a tough guy to assess. Watching him against elite athletes or just big guys last year showed he will not be an instant plug and play guy.
Posted on 5/18/22 at 1:02 pm to SlowFlowPro
I think Holmgren probably has the highest ceiling but biggest risk. Aside from Ivey, who I would argue is in the group with the top 3, I’m not sure I see your point. Sharpe is a mystery box I guess, and the rest seem like they’ll be pretty solid role players unlikely to be even a #2 option outside of some far flung development.
This post was edited on 5/18/22 at 1:04 pm
Posted on 5/18/22 at 1:08 pm to Keys Open Doors
quote:
So I’m unsure how Smith can be criticized
It's not really criticizing him. More of a "vs. the field" situation b/c we know he's unlikely to become a superstar player (but is VERY likely to be a good player).
Posted on 5/18/22 at 1:15 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:WTF?
So this thread isn't trying to argue "there is no clear #1". It's arguing that whomever picks (likely Smith) #1 will have to fully admit that they believe that he's unlikely to be the best player down the road.
So no matter who of the 3 you pick, he will not be the best player down the road.
Pick Banchero - he will not be the best player down the road.
Pick Smith - he will not be the best player down the road.
Pick Holmgren - he will not be the best player down the road.
Don't quit your day job, My Man.
EDIT: I get your meaning after reading some other posts. Plenty do work out, though. Tim Duncan comes to mind. I guess it depends on what level you are expecting from your guy. For a top 3 over all you gotta be expecting Perennial All-Star.
This post was edited on 5/18/22 at 2:27 pm
Posted on 5/18/22 at 1:15 pm to SlowFlowPro
Well, in many years I would take the field over 3-4 guys. Not every year of course, but most years, but you only get one shot.
Jokic, Curry, Giannis, Butler, Booker in today’s league. Kobe and Dirk in the past, etc.
LeBron, Durant, Tatum, Embiid, and Luka are the elite guys who completely panned out. Griffin too although injuries have really slowed him down. I guess Chris Paul goes in there as well.
Jokic, Curry, Giannis, Butler, Booker in today’s league. Kobe and Dirk in the past, etc.
LeBron, Durant, Tatum, Embiid, and Luka are the elite guys who completely panned out. Griffin too although injuries have really slowed him down. I guess Chris Paul goes in there as well.
Posted on 5/18/22 at 1:34 pm to SlowFlowPro
Smith will definitely be a #1 option in the NBA and will be a star very quickly.
Posted on 5/18/22 at 1:39 pm to Madking
quote:There's definitely question marks on that given how poorly he shot fron inside the arc, specifically at the rim.
Smith will definitely be a #1 option in the NBA and will be a star very quickly.
Posted on 5/18/22 at 1:41 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
b/c we know he's unlikely to become a superstar player (but is VERY likely to be a good player).
He seems like the most likely to be a superstar in today's NBA though
Chet just seems like a walking version of "lower back pain"
and Banchero screams of a guy that is going to put up big numbers on bad teams and nothing else
Posted on 5/18/22 at 1:42 pm to SlowFlowPro
Nope, can never be certain.
Posted on 5/18/22 at 1:42 pm to SlowFlowPro
Smith is a great catch and shoot guy and potential elite defender. Will he ever be a guy who can create his own shot and finish at the NBA level?
Posted on 5/18/22 at 1:47 pm to Madking
quote:
Smith will definitely be a #1 option in the NBA
He's going to start creating his own shot regularly?
Posted on 5/18/22 at 1:49 pm to shel311
You can question it if you want to but I watched him all season and there’s nothing he can’t do. Auburn didn’t highlight him or run anything specific to isolate him at all. He was just part of the offense which kept big space cloggers on the floor at all times and had their guards taking too many shots. There’s nothing Smith doesn’t do well, he’s tailor made for the NBA game. Will he be Kevin Durant year 1, of course not but don’t be surprised if his career arc closely parallels Jayson Tatums.
This post was edited on 5/18/22 at 1:52 pm
Posted on 5/18/22 at 1:50 pm to SlowFlowPro
Yes he already does it when he’s asked to.
Posted on 5/18/22 at 1:52 pm to Madking
quote:Then why didn't he do it?
but I watched him all season and there’s nothing he can’t do
Why didn't he shoot efficiently instead of woefully inefficient inside the arc if he could have done it?
Posted on 5/18/22 at 1:52 pm to shel311
Literally just answered that. I can tell you didn’t watch him this year.
This post was edited on 5/18/22 at 1:53 pm
Posted on 5/18/22 at 1:55 pm to Madking
quote:So they didn't ask him to be efficient inside the arc, so he decided to not be efficient inside the arc?
Literally just answered that
Got it!
Posted on 5/18/22 at 1:58 pm to shel311
You do know almost all college 3s are NBA 2s right? Just shows how silly the argument you’re making is. You didn’t watch him and are being defensive because you know you’re ignorant on the topic which is why you’re making ridiculous statements like “they asked him to be inefficient”. Wanna go through the list of NBA stars and superstars who had holes in their games coming out of college? It’s pretty much every single one.
This post was edited on 5/18/22 at 2:11 pm
Posted on 5/18/22 at 2:02 pm to shel311
Walker Kessler ate up a lot of the gimmies. He was the main option in the pick and roll.
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