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Annual history of CFB Playoff Selections
Posted on 11/3/21 at 9:48 am
Posted on 11/3/21 at 9:48 am
I've made this thread before but figure it deserves an annual refresh. People continue to be utterly baffled by the committee when we have 7 years of actual, hard data to go on to see exactly how they operate. Here is the top 4, number 5, and Notre Dame every year of the playoffs.
2014
1) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to ole miss.
2) Oregon 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Arizona.
3) FSU 13-0. Conf champion.
4) Ohio State 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to VT
____________________________________
5) Baylor 11-1. Co-champ. Loss to WVU
ND: Nonfactor at 8-5
2015
1) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to ole miss
3) Michigan State 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Nebraska.
4) Oklahoma 11-1. Conf champion. Los to Texas.
_____________________________________
5) Iowa 12-1. Non-champ. Loss to MSU in title game
ND: 10-2, losses to Clemson and Stanford. 8th in playoff rankings
2016
1) Alabama 13-0. Conf champion.
2)Clemson 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Pitt
3) Ohio State 11-1. Non-champ. Loss to Penn State.
4) Washington 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to USC.
________________________________________
5) Penn State 11-2. Conf champion. Loss to Pitt and Michigan
ND: Non factor
2017
1) Clemson 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Syracuse.
2) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Iowa State.
3) UGA 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Auburn.
4) Alabama 11-1. Non-champ. Loss to Auburn.
________________________________________
5) Ohio State 11-2. Conf champion. Loss to Oklahoma and Iowa
ND: 10-3, losses to UGA, Miami, Stanford. 14th in playoff rankings
2018
1) Alabama 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
3) Notre Dame 12-0.
4) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Texas.
________________________________________________
5) UGA 11-2. Non-champ. Loss to LSU and Alabama in title game
2019
1) LSU 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Ohio State 13-0. Conf champion.
3) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
4) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Kansas St.
________________________________________
5) UGA 11-2. Non-champ. Loss to South Carolina and LSU in title game
ND: 10-2, losses to UGA and Michigan. 15th in playoff rankings
2020
1) Alabama 11-0. Conf champion.
2) Clemson 10-1. Conf champion. Loss to ND
3) Ohio State 6-0. Conf champion.
4) Notre Dame 10-1. Non-conf champion. Loss to clemson in title game
________________________________________
5) Texas A&M 8-1. Non-champ. Loss to alabama
With 5 Power Conferences and 4 playoff spots, obviously a conference is going to get left out each year. Here are those cases:
2014: Big 12 where Baylor and TCU were co-champions with 11-1 records. No title game.
2015: Pac 12 champ Stanford. 11-2 with losses to Northwestern and Oregon
2016: Big 12 champ Oklahoma. 10-2 with losses to Houston and Ohio State. No title game.
2017: Big 10 champ Ohio State. 11-2 with losses to Oklahoma and Iowa. Also the Pac12 champ USC. 11-2 with losses to Washington State and Notre Dame
2018: Big 10 champ Ohio State. 12-1 with loss to Purdue. Also Pac12 champ Washington. 10-3 with losses to Auburn, Oregon, and Cal.
2019: Pac 12 champ oregon. 11-2 with losses to Auburn and Ariz. State.
2020: Big 12 champ oklahoma. 8-2 with losses to kansas state and iowa state. Also the Pac 12 champ Oregon finishing at 25th in the rankings. 4-2 with losses to oregon state and cal.
This is a lot of data to go on but presents us with a pretty clear picture of how the committee operates:
-First, you almost surely need to win your conference. Of 28 playoff teams, only 3 of them made it without winning their conference (2016 Ohio State, 2017 alabama, 2020 notre dame).
-As a follow up to the point above, let’s look at why those 3 non-champs made it. ’16 OSU made it over #5 Penn State because they only had 1 loss compared to 2 for psu. Ditto for ’17 bama who made it over #5 OSU, also because OSU had 2 losses compared to just 1 for bama. 2020 is the outlier here in that they had the same record as team #5, but they also had a win over a top 4 team (splitting the season series with them), played for their conference title while #5 didn't win their division, and the #5 team had already lost to who they'd be paired with in the first round.
-If you don’t win your conference, you need a lot of help. Mainly in the way of 2/3 of the cases above where other conference winners have 2 losses.
-No team thus far has made the playoffs with more than 1 loss.
-Notre Dame, despite being a media darling or is said to have special privileges, has only made the playoffs twice and they went undefeated and 1-loss to do so. Even in the years with 2 losses (and some “good losses” at that) they did not finish in the top 7.
-Never in the history of the playoffs has a team that did not win their conference made the playoffs over a team that did win their conference with an equal or better record. I emphasize this last point because many SEC fans still have 2017 flashbacks and are convinced to the max that bama has some kind of preferential treatment which simply isn't true. If they win the SEC this year with 1 loss, they're in. If they end up wtih 2 losses, they are out.
2014
1) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to ole miss.
2) Oregon 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Arizona.
3) FSU 13-0. Conf champion.
4) Ohio State 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to VT
____________________________________
5) Baylor 11-1. Co-champ. Loss to WVU
ND: Nonfactor at 8-5
2015
1) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to ole miss
3) Michigan State 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Nebraska.
4) Oklahoma 11-1. Conf champion. Los to Texas.
_____________________________________
5) Iowa 12-1. Non-champ. Loss to MSU in title game
ND: 10-2, losses to Clemson and Stanford. 8th in playoff rankings
2016
1) Alabama 13-0. Conf champion.
2)Clemson 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Pitt
3) Ohio State 11-1. Non-champ. Loss to Penn State.
4) Washington 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to USC.
________________________________________
5) Penn State 11-2. Conf champion. Loss to Pitt and Michigan
ND: Non factor
2017
1) Clemson 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Syracuse.
2) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Iowa State.
3) UGA 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Auburn.
4) Alabama 11-1. Non-champ. Loss to Auburn.
________________________________________
5) Ohio State 11-2. Conf champion. Loss to Oklahoma and Iowa
ND: 10-3, losses to UGA, Miami, Stanford. 14th in playoff rankings
2018
1) Alabama 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
3) Notre Dame 12-0.
4) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Texas.
________________________________________________
5) UGA 11-2. Non-champ. Loss to LSU and Alabama in title game
2019
1) LSU 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Ohio State 13-0. Conf champion.
3) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
4) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Kansas St.
________________________________________
5) UGA 11-2. Non-champ. Loss to South Carolina and LSU in title game
ND: 10-2, losses to UGA and Michigan. 15th in playoff rankings
2020
1) Alabama 11-0. Conf champion.
2) Clemson 10-1. Conf champion. Loss to ND
3) Ohio State 6-0. Conf champion.
4) Notre Dame 10-1. Non-conf champion. Loss to clemson in title game
________________________________________
5) Texas A&M 8-1. Non-champ. Loss to alabama
With 5 Power Conferences and 4 playoff spots, obviously a conference is going to get left out each year. Here are those cases:
2014: Big 12 where Baylor and TCU were co-champions with 11-1 records. No title game.
2015: Pac 12 champ Stanford. 11-2 with losses to Northwestern and Oregon
2016: Big 12 champ Oklahoma. 10-2 with losses to Houston and Ohio State. No title game.
2017: Big 10 champ Ohio State. 11-2 with losses to Oklahoma and Iowa. Also the Pac12 champ USC. 11-2 with losses to Washington State and Notre Dame
2018: Big 10 champ Ohio State. 12-1 with loss to Purdue. Also Pac12 champ Washington. 10-3 with losses to Auburn, Oregon, and Cal.
2019: Pac 12 champ oregon. 11-2 with losses to Auburn and Ariz. State.
2020: Big 12 champ oklahoma. 8-2 with losses to kansas state and iowa state. Also the Pac 12 champ Oregon finishing at 25th in the rankings. 4-2 with losses to oregon state and cal.
This is a lot of data to go on but presents us with a pretty clear picture of how the committee operates:
-First, you almost surely need to win your conference. Of 28 playoff teams, only 3 of them made it without winning their conference (2016 Ohio State, 2017 alabama, 2020 notre dame).
-As a follow up to the point above, let’s look at why those 3 non-champs made it. ’16 OSU made it over #5 Penn State because they only had 1 loss compared to 2 for psu. Ditto for ’17 bama who made it over #5 OSU, also because OSU had 2 losses compared to just 1 for bama. 2020 is the outlier here in that they had the same record as team #5, but they also had a win over a top 4 team (splitting the season series with them), played for their conference title while #5 didn't win their division, and the #5 team had already lost to who they'd be paired with in the first round.
-If you don’t win your conference, you need a lot of help. Mainly in the way of 2/3 of the cases above where other conference winners have 2 losses.
-No team thus far has made the playoffs with more than 1 loss.
-Notre Dame, despite being a media darling or is said to have special privileges, has only made the playoffs twice and they went undefeated and 1-loss to do so. Even in the years with 2 losses (and some “good losses” at that) they did not finish in the top 7.
-Never in the history of the playoffs has a team that did not win their conference made the playoffs over a team that did win their conference with an equal or better record. I emphasize this last point because many SEC fans still have 2017 flashbacks and are convinced to the max that bama has some kind of preferential treatment which simply isn't true. If they win the SEC this year with 1 loss, they're in. If they end up wtih 2 losses, they are out.
This post was edited on 11/3/21 at 9:58 am
Posted on 11/3/21 at 9:51 am to WG_Dawg
Thank you for spelling "Notre" Dame instead of "Norte" correctly.
Posted on 11/3/21 at 10:16 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
If they win the SEC this year with 1 loss, they're in. If they end up wtih 2 losses, they are out.
does 13-0 cincinnati get in (or get ranked higher than bama if neither make it) over 11-2 bama?
Posted on 11/3/21 at 10:32 am to rockchlkjayhku11
quote:
does 13-0 cincinnati get in (or get ranked higher than bama if neither make it) over 11-2 bama?
I can't say if cincy gets in because it is entirely dependent on who the P5 champs are.
I can say, with absolute certainty, that an 11-2 bama that does not win the SEC is out of the playoffs.
Posted on 11/3/21 at 10:50 am to rockchlkjayhku11
quote:
oes 13-0 cincinnati get in (or get ranked higher than bama if neither make it) over 11-2 bama?
I think they need Houston to run the table and face them in the AAC title game, and also have SMU win the rest of their games (except for when Cincy plays them)
We still have a lot of football left and teams tend to tighten up late in the year when they’re highly ranked and haven’t been ‘exposed’ yet. Happens every year in the big10 & big12, since they back load their more marque games
Posted on 11/3/21 at 11:25 am to BlueWaffleHouse
Much like other non-powerhouses in the past cincy is going to need help from others. To me Wake is the most intriguing scenario. I highly, highly doubt that an undefeated P5 champ is ever left out, so if they keep winnign you've gotta put them in. Them plus a (maybe? just spitballing) undefeated Big12 and SEC champ makes 3. If the Big 10 champ is undefeated they're obviously in. So the question to me is, would you put in a 1-loss Big10 champ or an undefeated cincy?
Posted on 11/3/21 at 11:30 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
So the question to me is, would you put in a 1-loss Big10 champ or an undefeated cincy?
yes, obviously, i dont think this is a question at all.
same question about the big 12 might be the real question. one loss big 12 champion probably still gets in, though.
im not worried about wake or the acc at all, to be honest. dont think that's happening and undefeated cincy is in over a one loss acc champion in this particular year.
Posted on 11/3/21 at 11:53 am to ChestRockwell
Why not have a 4 team G5 playoff - similar teams
similar resumes
They can use existing bowls as well for semis and finals
similar resumes
They can use existing bowls as well for semis and finals
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