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A history of the CFB Playoff Selections
Posted on 10/24/19 at 11:21 am
Posted on 10/24/19 at 11:21 am
There seems to be a lot of confusion about the playoff committee and how they decide on things. “Bama can lose to LSU and still make it!” “Kirk herbstreit is trying to sway the voters!” This isn’t the BCS where computers have some unknown formula, these are humans that over the 5 years of the playoff era have voted consistently and with a pretty clear and distinct pattern. I figured it’d be a good exercise to go further in depth. Below are the final 4 teams into the playoffs, the team that finished 5th, plus Notre Dame.
2014
1) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to ole miss.
2) Oregon 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Arizona.
3) FSU 13-0. Conf champion.
4) Ohio State 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to VT
____________________________________
5) Baylor 11-1. Co-champ. Loss to WVU
ND: Nonfactor at 8-5
2015
1) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to ole miss
3) Michigan State 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Nebraska.
4) Oklahoma 11-1. Conf champion. Los to Texas.
_____________________________________
5) Iowa 12-1. Non-champ. Loss to MSU in title game
ND: 10-2, losses to Clemson and Stanford. 8th in playoff rankings
2016
1) Alabama 13-0. Conf champion.
2)Clemson 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Pitt
3) Ohio State 11-1. Non-champ. Loss to Penn State.
4) Washington 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to USC.
________________________________________
5) Penn State 11-2. Conf champion. Loss to Pitt and Michigan
ND: Non factor
2017
1) Clemson 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Syracuse.
2) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Iowa State.
3) UGA 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Auburn.
4) Alabama 11-1. Non-champ. Loss to Auburn.
________________________________________
5) Ohio State 11-2. Conf champion. Loss to Oklahoma and Iowa
ND: 10-3, losses to UGA, Miami, Stanford. 14th in playoff rankings
2018
1) Alabama 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
3) Notre Dame 12-0.
4) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Texas.
________________________________________________
5) UGA 11-2. Non-champ. Loss to LSU and Alabama in title game
With 5 Power Conferences and 4 playoff spots, obviously a conference is going to get left out each year. Here are those cases:
2014: Big 12 where Baylor and TCU were co-champions with 11-1 records. No title game.
2015: Pac 12 champ Stanford. 11-2 with losses to Northwestern and Oregon
2016: Big 12 champ Oklahoma. 10-2 with losses to Houston and Ohio State. No title game.
2017: Big 12 champ Ohio State. 11-2 with losses to Oklahoma and Iowa. Also the Pac12 champ USC. 11-2 with losses to Washington State and Notre Dame
2018: Big 10 champ Ohio State. 12-1 with loss to Purdue. Also Pac12 champ Washington. 10-3 with losses to Auburn, Oregon, and Cal.
This is a lot of data to go on but presents us with a pretty clear picture of how the committee operates:
-First, you almost surely need to win your conference. Of 20 playoff teams, only 2 of them made it without winning their conference (2016 Ohio State and 2017 alabama).
-As a follow up to the point above, let’s look at why those 2 non-champs made it. ’16 OSU made it over #5 Penn State because they only had 1 loss compared to 2 for psu. Ditto for ’17 bama who made it over #5 OSU, also because OSU had 2 losses compared to just 1 for bama.
-If you don’t win your conference, you need a lot of help. Mainly in the way of the cases above where other conference winners have 2 losses.
-No team thus far has made the playoffs with more than 1 loss.
-Notre Dame, despite being a media darling or having special privileges, has only made the playoffs once and they went undefeated to do so. Even in a year with 2 losses (“good losses” at that) they did not finish in the top 7.
2014
1) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to ole miss.
2) Oregon 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Arizona.
3) FSU 13-0. Conf champion.
4) Ohio State 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to VT
____________________________________
5) Baylor 11-1. Co-champ. Loss to WVU
ND: Nonfactor at 8-5
2015
1) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to ole miss
3) Michigan State 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Nebraska.
4) Oklahoma 11-1. Conf champion. Los to Texas.
_____________________________________
5) Iowa 12-1. Non-champ. Loss to MSU in title game
ND: 10-2, losses to Clemson and Stanford. 8th in playoff rankings
2016
1) Alabama 13-0. Conf champion.
2)Clemson 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Pitt
3) Ohio State 11-1. Non-champ. Loss to Penn State.
4) Washington 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to USC.
________________________________________
5) Penn State 11-2. Conf champion. Loss to Pitt and Michigan
ND: Non factor
2017
1) Clemson 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Syracuse.
2) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Iowa State.
3) UGA 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Auburn.
4) Alabama 11-1. Non-champ. Loss to Auburn.
________________________________________
5) Ohio State 11-2. Conf champion. Loss to Oklahoma and Iowa
ND: 10-3, losses to UGA, Miami, Stanford. 14th in playoff rankings
2018
1) Alabama 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
3) Notre Dame 12-0.
4) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Texas.
________________________________________________
5) UGA 11-2. Non-champ. Loss to LSU and Alabama in title game
With 5 Power Conferences and 4 playoff spots, obviously a conference is going to get left out each year. Here are those cases:
2014: Big 12 where Baylor and TCU were co-champions with 11-1 records. No title game.
2015: Pac 12 champ Stanford. 11-2 with losses to Northwestern and Oregon
2016: Big 12 champ Oklahoma. 10-2 with losses to Houston and Ohio State. No title game.
2017: Big 12 champ Ohio State. 11-2 with losses to Oklahoma and Iowa. Also the Pac12 champ USC. 11-2 with losses to Washington State and Notre Dame
2018: Big 10 champ Ohio State. 12-1 with loss to Purdue. Also Pac12 champ Washington. 10-3 with losses to Auburn, Oregon, and Cal.
This is a lot of data to go on but presents us with a pretty clear picture of how the committee operates:
-First, you almost surely need to win your conference. Of 20 playoff teams, only 2 of them made it without winning their conference (2016 Ohio State and 2017 alabama).
-As a follow up to the point above, let’s look at why those 2 non-champs made it. ’16 OSU made it over #5 Penn State because they only had 1 loss compared to 2 for psu. Ditto for ’17 bama who made it over #5 OSU, also because OSU had 2 losses compared to just 1 for bama.
-If you don’t win your conference, you need a lot of help. Mainly in the way of the cases above where other conference winners have 2 losses.
-No team thus far has made the playoffs with more than 1 loss.
-Notre Dame, despite being a media darling or having special privileges, has only made the playoffs once and they went undefeated to do so. Even in a year with 2 losses (“good losses” at that) they did not finish in the top 7.
7
Posted on 10/24/19 at 11:42 am to WG_Dawg
Looking at the shitty teams Alabama and Clemson lost too I don't feel so bad about UW's chances now.
Posted on 10/24/19 at 11:44 am to BuckyCheese
quote:
Looking at the shitty teams Alabama and Clemson lost too
-clemson has undoubtedly lost to some craptastic teams, but still won their conference with 1 loss. That seems to be the key metric so far, win your conference wiht 0 or 1 loss
-bama lost on the road to a team ranked #2 so not sure that was a bad loss
quote:
I don't feel so bad about UW's chances now.
If yall win out it seems like it'd come down to you and Oregon for the final spot, assuming oregon also ends at 1 loss. You would have a worse loss than them but a far better win. Would be interesting.
Posted on 10/24/19 at 11:47 am to WG_Dawg
I really do not believe we will win out, but who knows.
Posted on 10/24/19 at 12:10 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
-First, you almost surely need to win your conference. Of 20 playoff teams, only 2 of them made it without winning their conference (2016 Ohio State and 2017 alabama).
You're fooling yourself if you think a 1 loss Alabama team wouldn't get in the CFP for a potential rematch.
Posted on 10/24/19 at 12:13 pm to WG_Dawg
the idea that ND is this media darling who constantly gets boosted up in the polls is quite amusing. they have been outperforming preseason rankings at a decent clip
its teams like LSU who are constantly being overrated in the preseason, truth be told
the biggest media darling is USC, however. beyond amazing to see how they are incessantly overrated in the polls year after year only to lose 4 or 5 games
its teams like LSU who are constantly being overrated in the preseason, truth be told
the biggest media darling is USC, however. beyond amazing to see how they are incessantly overrated in the polls year after year only to lose 4 or 5 games
Posted on 10/24/19 at 12:18 pm to AstroTiger
quote:
You're fooling yourself if you think a 1 loss Alabama team wouldn't get in the CFP for a potential rematch.
I've literally presented you with every decision the committee has made. It's you that's being foolish to think they will do something they have never done before in history simply because you say so.
At no point in time has a non-champion ever made the playoffs over a team with less than 2 losses. Ever. There is 0 reason to think it will start this year.
Posted on 10/24/19 at 12:26 pm to WG_Dawg
So you’re saying that LSU should probably lose to Bama by close margin, hope Texas wins the B12, and slide into the Playoff when someone else loses?
Posted on 10/24/19 at 12:26 pm to WG_Dawg
SEC is setting up for a potential 2 team playoff again IF the East champ can win out and the West champ goes in undefeated. If the East champ can win the title game, there could be two 1 loss West teams(LSU/Bama) right there on the bubble.
Could also see Bama/LSU be insanely close and the loser sneak in too because of the high value of their loss.
Either happening means the second half of the season has to see some major losses of course from OU/Oregon/ND/Ohio State/Clemson types to make it play out though.
Could also see Bama/LSU be insanely close and the loser sneak in too because of the high value of their loss.
Either happening means the second half of the season has to see some major losses of course from OU/Oregon/ND/Ohio State/Clemson types to make it play out though.
Posted on 10/24/19 at 12:27 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
At no point in time has a non-champion ever made the playoffs over a team with less than 2 losses. Ever. There is 0 reason to think it will start this year
If LSU wins a close game at Bama and finishes 13-0 after the SECCG and that is Bamas only loss:
I’ll ban bet that they (Bama) get in over a 1 loss PAC 12 champ Oregon or a 1 loss Big 10 champ Wisconsin.
Posted on 10/24/19 at 12:28 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
At no point in time has a non-champion ever made the playoffs
5 whole seasons
Posted on 10/24/19 at 12:30 pm to Gatorbait2008
quote:
SEC is setting up for a potential 2 team playoff again IF the East champ can win out and the West champ goes in undefeated. If the East champ can win the title game, there could be two 1 loss West teams(LSU/Bama) right there on the bubble.
no. The only reason 2 got in in '17 was because the big 10 champion had 2 losses. Granted it's cfb so anythign could happen, but it looks like a relatively safe bet that the champions of the big 10, big 12, and acc, whoever they may be, will all have less than 2 losses. Hell the Pac12 champ might as well if it's oregon. If that happens there is zero chance the SEC gets 2. The west team that loses the title game would be 12-1 without a conference championship, that's not really a better resume than a 12-1 conf champion.
quote:
Could also see Bama/LSU be insanely close and the loser sneak in too because of the high value of their loss.
no chance
quote:
Either happening means the second half of the season has to see some major losses of course from OU/Oregon/ND/Ohio State/Clemson types to make it play out though.
I was only scrolling one line at a time so got to this one last but yeah...it would take a whole lot of chaos for more than 1 SEC team to get in. Not impossible, but veyr unlikely IMO.
Posted on 10/24/19 at 12:31 pm to AstroTiger
quote:
5 whole seasons
of actual, real life, black and white things that happened. Compare that to the fantasy land in your head.
Posted on 10/24/19 at 12:33 pm to memphis tiger
quote:
If LSU wins a close game at Bama and finishes 13-0 after the SECCG and that is Bamas only loss:
I’ll ban bet that they (Bama) get in over a 1 loss PAC 12 champ Oregon or a 1 loss Big 10 champ Wisconsin.
And I'll take you up on that because it's not happening. People, mainly LSU fans, seem to think bama has some kind of hex over the committee wiht a lifetime free pass. The only year they've made it that was a question at all was in '17 when the team they were battling for the 4th spot had 2 losses. One of which btw was a 30 point shellacking to iowa in the most embarrassing loss of the season. If you've got:
12-1 Pac12 Champ Oregon, only loss in week 1 to AU
12-1 Big10 Champ UW, bad loss to Illinois but win over Ohio State
11-1 Bama, non conf or division champion
there is no justification to put them in. They would have the best loss, but who would be their best win? Auburn, that may have 4 losses?
This post was edited on 10/24/19 at 12:37 pm
Posted on 10/24/19 at 12:34 pm to WG_Dawg
.
This post was edited on 5/3/21 at 1:16 pm
Posted on 10/24/19 at 12:37 pm to WG_Dawg
It’s not exactly a large sample size though and in most all those scenarios the selection was based off #of loses. One day there will come a situation where it’s1 loss CChamp vs. 1 loss non CChamp, and eye test will rein supreme in all but the closest of those comparisons
Posted on 10/24/19 at 12:41 pm to memphis tiger
quote:
I’ll ban bet that they (Bama) get in over a 1 loss PAC 12 champ Oregon or a 1 loss Big 10 champ Wisconsin.
I’m your huckleberry
Posted on 10/24/19 at 12:43 pm to Arch Madness
quote:
t’s not exactly a large sample size though
sure it's not 30 years, but it's all we've got. I see people make predictions time and time again (primarily that bama can lose to lsu and have no problem still getting in becuase of the "eye test") without realizing that the committee has been remarkably consistent. 5 years of data beats 1 or 2 years at least.
quote:
One day there will come a situation where it’s1 loss CChamp vs. 1 loss non CChamp, and eye test will rein supreme in all but the closest of those comparisons
One day there will be a toughie like that, but I fully believe the committee will go with the conference champion. In fact let's use this year as an example. Wisconsin has a bad loss to illinois but wins out to win the big 10, including an elite win over ohio state. Bama has an elite loss to LSU but doesn't win their division. I fully and wholeheartedly believe Wisconsin would get the nod basd on the committee's track record of strongly valuing conference champions.
Posted on 10/24/19 at 12:45 pm to AstroTiger
quote:It’s more like you’re being a big huge bitch and blaming Alabama’s success(and LSU’s lack of it) on something like refs, or in this case the committee.
You're fooling yourself if you think a 1 loss Alabama team wouldn't get in the CFP for a potential rematch.
Posted on 10/24/19 at 12:45 pm to WG_Dawg
Well in 2011 the voters dismissed this same convention to put Alabama in over a one loss conference champion. That is why that belief exist. It is being stated that it couldn’t happen to get Bama in at 4 and it happened to get Bama in at 2.
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