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re: 538's Way Too Early Projections for the '19-'20 NBA Season

Posted on 7/16/19 at 3:11 pm to
Posted by Winston Cup
Dallas Cowboys Fan
Member since May 2016
66692 posts
Posted on 7/16/19 at 3:11 pm to
why do they think carmello is going to play any kind of factor in the course of the season?

can we get an updated with with JR Smith on the Lakers/not on the Lakers?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91277 posts
Posted on 7/16/19 at 3:12 pm to
quote:

People said the same thing about Harden and Paul. "How is it gonna work because there's only one ball!". It worked out just fine. One ball is more than enough for 2 ball-dominant players. It's when you add a third guy that it starts to get iffy. LeBron and Wade were just fine. It was Bosh whose numbers went down. There is more than enough basketball to go around for both Harden and Westbrook just as there was for Harden and Paul.


Those people were dumb.

CP3 is a career 24% usage guy. 14 FGAs per game. 37% from 3.

Westbrook is a career 32% usage guy. 18.6 FGAs per game. Sub 31%.

They're not in the same stratosphere.
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
149394 posts
Posted on 7/16/19 at 3:13 pm to
and CP was not nearly as awful of a stylistic fit
This post was edited on 7/16/19 at 3:13 pm
Posted by Smoke7024
Member since Jun 2010
23934 posts
Posted on 7/16/19 at 3:14 pm to
quote:

Got nothing useful to add, just here to laugh at Hawks fans



Why?
Posted by Winston Cup
Dallas Cowboys Fan
Member since May 2016
66692 posts
Posted on 7/16/19 at 3:14 pm to
quote:

share the court for only 20ish minutes per game

:03 left. down 1...
Inbound Westbrook... ...
Westbrook for three for the win!!!

No good....
Posted by Boomshockalocka
Member since Feb 2004
59874 posts
Posted on 7/16/19 at 3:14 pm to
this team will not be down late in games very often...
Posted by PrimeTime Money
Houston, Texas, USA
Member since Nov 2012
27828 posts
Posted on 7/16/19 at 3:14 pm to
quote:

Didn't that actually wind up with them having to trade CP3 because they didn't get along?
We don't know why he was traded. Could have been CP3's age and the fact that he wasn't going to be getting any better and they just weren't good enough as it was. And there was an opportunity to make a trade and they took it.

Personally, I highly doubt it was because they didn't "get along".


quote:

Also, CP3 only had a usage rate of 25 three times in his career and never above 27. Westbrook has never been under 25, over 30 for many years and even over 40. The Rockets are trying to fit together two guys who have had usage rates of over 40% within the last 3 years.
Last season, Westbrook's usg% was 31. CP3's the year before last was nearly 25.

If anybody has to concede buckets, it will be role players. Not Harden.

Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91277 posts
Posted on 7/16/19 at 3:17 pm to
quote:

and CP was not nearly as awful of a stylistic fit


Yeah I understand these projections have their limitations, but Russ and Harden has major bust potential IMO. Nothing Russ does fits into Houston's scheme up to this point. They're one of the more interesting teams to watch in the NBA now.
Posted by tiggerthetooth
Big Momma's House
Member since Oct 2010
63960 posts
Posted on 7/16/19 at 3:19 pm to
Posted by PrimeTime Money
Houston, Texas, USA
Member since Nov 2012
27828 posts
Posted on 7/16/19 at 3:21 pm to
quote:

Nothing Russ does fits into Houston's scheme up to this point. They're one of the more interesting teams to watch in the NBA now.
See, that's where I disagree. There are some things that don't mesh such as his propensity to shoot long 2's and his sub-par 3-point shooting.

But there are other things he does that meshes very well with Houston's style, such as his ability to drive and score at the rim, run the pick and roll, facilitate and find open shooters, get to the free throw line, push the ball up the floor in transition and score, switch on defense with his size and athleticism, etc.

If he can change his shot selection (and many players do when they join the Rockets), he could be very, very good.
Posted by wildtigercat93
Member since Jul 2011
115555 posts
Posted on 7/16/19 at 3:25 pm to
quote:

sub-par 3-point shooting.


That’s a gentle way to put it
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91277 posts
Posted on 7/16/19 at 3:26 pm to
quote:

If anybody has to concede buckets, it will be role players. Not Harden.


Sure, but is that a good thing? Westbrook is a 46.5% eFG% guy. I love him, but he's crazy inefficient. He's a volume guy, which is the antithesis of Houston up to this point.

Hell, Houston also has the NBA turnover leader in 8 of the last 11 years on their team.
Posted by Boomshockalocka
Member since Feb 2004
59874 posts
Posted on 7/16/19 at 3:27 pm to
LolKC was enablers. They let him do whatever he wanted. Hardwn won’t be having that, to say the least. James is totally bought into the efficient shots mentality.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91277 posts
Posted on 7/16/19 at 3:29 pm to
quote:

See, that's where I disagree. There are some things that don't mesh such as his propensity to shoot long 2's and his sub-par 3-point shooting. But there are other things he does that meshes very well with Houston's style, such as his ability to drive and score at the rim, run the pick and roll, facilitate and find open shooters, get to the free throw line, push the ball up the floor in transition and score, switch on defense with his size and athleticism, etc.


I was being hyperbolic, but I am very interested to see how it plays out.

Watching Russ shoot 12-14 times a game is almost blasphemous. Dude hasn't shown any propensity to reign it in whatsoever, even when he was with KD and Harden.
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
92936 posts
Posted on 7/16/19 at 3:30 pm to
quote:

this team will not be down late in games very often...


Only when they play the Clips B
We on for 250?
Posted by PrimeTime Money
Houston, Texas, USA
Member since Nov 2012
27828 posts
Posted on 7/16/19 at 3:31 pm to
quote:

Sure, but is that a good thing? Westbrook is a 46.5% eFG% guy. I love him, but he's crazy inefficient. He's a volume guy, which is the antithesis of Houston up to this point.

Hell, Houston also has the NBA turnover leader in 8 of the last 11 years on their team.
Yeah, he certainly has drawbacks to his game. There is no denying that.

But there's also things he does incredibly well.

We'll see in a few months how well his weaknesses can be minimized and his strengths maximized.
Posted by Boomshockalocka
Member since Feb 2004
59874 posts
Posted on 7/16/19 at 3:32 pm to
Absolutely. Wit George on the shelf to start the season, and wittle kawhi having to sit 20 something games a year idk if a top 4 seed is in the cards this year. I am looking at CC DEN UTA for my top 3 maybe you can get that 4.
Posted by PrimeTime Money
Houston, Texas, USA
Member since Nov 2012
27828 posts
Posted on 7/16/19 at 3:33 pm to
quote:

That’s a gentle way to put it
He's a Rocket now I gotta adjust my language.
Posted by Rep520
Member since Mar 2018
10476 posts
Posted on 7/16/19 at 3:34 pm to
quote:

Last season, Westbrook's usg% was 31. CP3's the year before last was nearly 25. 

If anybody has to concede buckets, it will be role players. Not Harden. 


Westbrook's usage fell to 31% because PG had a MVP level season. Assuming Harden produces a potential MVP level season, why would Westbrook fall further?

Last year's levels would keep 2 guys as 73% usage for the team, which is insane.

The other glaring stylistic issue is a lot of what Harden creates are spot up opportunities for 3's, which is by far Westbrook's weakest area and an area CP3 was good in.
Posted by BeeFense5
Kenner
Member since Jul 2010
42155 posts
Posted on 7/16/19 at 3:35 pm to
Moar regular season wins for Houston

Yawn

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