re: 2024 NASCAR Season Thread - 2024-25 Offseason

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r imagine if someone who finishes 16th at start of chase wins it all.

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The difference there is that racing is ultimately about wins. In that scenario the 16th place driver would have to win the final race plus probably at least one more race during the playoffs since they would be coming into the playoffs in the worst position of all drivers. And they might have even won a race during the regular season to get to the playoffs at all.

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the driver will have been most consistent of all drivers all year.

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Sure, but I think even NASCAR would tell you'd they'd like to see more actual results in terms of at least stage wins from a champion in this hypothetical. Racing is a results-oriented business, and the desired result is being in 1st at the end.

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Point 1: The 16th place chase driver does not need any wins to get in Chase. In fact most years they have zero wins. Its wins and then points for Chase.

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Just to get in, sure. But that doesn't address definitely at least having to win in Phoenix and likely needing at least one more win other than Phoenix just because of the math.

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The stages can be misleading as well. Someone might pit to get better starting position at next stage start so stage winners might not be who was best that stage. It happens on bigger tracks where they don’t lose a lap for pitting with 2-3 laps to go in stage. Its talked about time and again that X driver will need to stay out to collect stage points which is points racing.

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Sure but if you're giving up stage wins for strategy to have a better chance at winning... you should be winning more in theory. And Chase's only win was in OT IIRC, which are kind of crap shoots anyway at times.

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It might be time for Austin Dillon to step aside. That's a pretty poor showing in the points for a mid pack team. I'd like to see Noah in the 3 (different style and font) and combine the bass pro funding.

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Sure but if you're giving up stage wins for strategy to have a better chance at winning... you should be winning more in theory. And Chase's only win was in OT IIRC, which are kind of crap shoots anyway at times.

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But the chase has created many strategies which are counterproductive. Say you have a caution with 10 laps to go in stage 1. Will go green with around 5-6 laps to go. Some leaders will pit to get a good starting spot in stage 2. Others who are low on points will stay out to collect points to help them make the chase. So we are robbed of a competitive restart which is alway fun to see. All due to chase strategies. If no one pitted we’d have all leaders fighting with worn tires. Or if no stage ending everyone would pit and leaders would still be up front for restart.

The chase format has created more points chasing not less. 2 stages per race is a lot of points that mid pack racers can rack up over the year as those with lots of chase points (or a win) can pit without fear. And due to cars staying out to collect points - those same cars reduce their chance to win race.

And to win Cup at Phoenix - you do not have to win race to win title. You only have to finish ahead of other 3 finalists. In theory you could finish 30th and win title. And its possible to win title with zero wins in chase. Just have to finish top 5 in most of races.

How many times when someone is above next cut line (say from 16-12 and 12-8 and even 8-4) have drivers milked it to just make the cut. Not trying whatsoever to win only to do enough to advance. The only ones trying to win are those below cut line. Most Chase races are not to win rather to just finish each set of 3 races good enough to advance. They go onto races conservative instead of to win.

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Say what? He was running up front all day. You have to be there to win it. Almost all races are like that.

What made yesterday exciting is Blaney/team gambled to get a win by taking 2 tires vice 4. Had they taken 4 then he doesn’t win. But for Chase, he was running great all day and was there to win if 12/24 cars stumbled. He has the best avg finish of all teams.

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Its pretty obvious he has been consistent, that isn't the question.

In a results-oriented sport, the one time he got the ultimate result everyone is chasing it was in OT.

But on the flip side, his average has been better than anyone else so I guess you could argue he has the best "results" in a sense... just not the sense most people think of when they watch racing.

I think (hope) at the very least you could agree that if the season ended today he would have had one of the weaker championship seasons in memory. And maybe thats a good aspect of the current system... if he does make Phoenix and win it, any narrative about his season being a "Mickey Mouse Championship" or "Larson should have won it" get thrown out the window, because you have to at least beat the other 3 drivers in that race.

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2 stages per race is a lot of points that mid pack racers can rack up over the year a

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If its mid pack drivers doing this you would think they would win more stages, correct?

The only "mid-pack" car that has won more than 1 stage this year is Reddick.... and he is pretty universally considered one of the better drivers in the sport, and 23XI probably is more like RCR in that "Not Hendrick, Penske or Gibbs, but just below them" tier than they are mid pack.

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Its pretty obvious he has been consistent, that isn't the question.

In a results-oriented sport, the one time he got the ultimate result everyone is chasing it was in OT.

But on the flip side, his average has been better than anyone else so I guess you could argue he has the best "results" in a sense... just not the sense most people think of when they watch racing.

I think (hope) at the very least you could agree that if the season ended today he would have had one of the weaker championship seasons in memory. And maybe thats a good aspect of the current system... if he does make Phoenix and win it, any narrative about his season being a "Mickey Mouse Championship" or "Larson should have won it" get thrown out the window, because you have to at least beat the other 3 drivers in that race.

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Its a great discussion and there is no right or wrong answer. Whoever wins the title is deserving because they won under current rules. Good to have some honest discussion without anyone getting mad. Rare these days lol.

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If its mid pack drivers doing this you would think they would win more stages, correct?

The only "mid-pack" car that has won more than 1 stage this year is Reddick.... and he is pretty universally considered one of the better drivers in the sport, and 23XI probably is more like RCR in that "Not Hendrick, Penske or Gibbs, but just below them" tier than they are mid pack.

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I would argue this. The drivers locked into chase have these options at end of stages:

1. If running 3rd to 10th and not close to winning stage, pit if can do without losing lap.

2. If running 1st or 2nd and even if locked in chase - you want that 1 stage point. Or if you are leading overall points - and have a chance to win reg season points (which nets you big chase points) stay out and fight for 1 or 2.

So in both cases you now have slots 3-10 to fill up as the 3-10 peel off to pit. So the mid packers are not winning the stages because one or two stay out to chase that point. But they move up from say 11th to 3rd (and so on) and get some points that can help. Only stage positions 1-10 get points, so if you run 11-16 you can move up a lot and grab points all year long.

Now of course each track has variables that could change it but thats the jest of my comments - its still points racing during the the race - where original points system meant no stages/points and you did all you could to finish high or win.

All systems are about points.

Only thing dumber than stage points is stages in the first place.

Ok I found the stats.

Sunday’s inaugural NASCAR Cup Series race from Iowa, the first of the season on the NBC Sports networks, averaged a 1.4 rating and 2.7 million viewers on USA Network — down a tick in ratings but up 5% in viewership from the first race on USA last season, Atlanta in July (1.5, 2.56M).

(NBC’s first race last season, Nashville, aired on its broadcast network and drew a 1.8 and 3.21 million.)

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So the same week comparison means it was lower than 1 year ago.