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re: 2017 NHL Playoff Thread: PENGUINS WIN THE CUP, Crosby robs Malkin of the Conn Smythe

Posted on 4/26/17 at 11:22 am to
Posted by Baloo
Formerly MDGeaux
Member since Sep 2003
49645 posts
Posted on 4/26/17 at 11:22 am to
Picks..

DUCKS v OILERS
If you had told me the Oilers would advance with McDavid only scoring one point at evens, I wouldn't have believed you. He needs to pick it up. The Ducks are, frankly, the team everyone hates. They play dirty, they have punchable faces, and Corey Perry is pretty much openly loathed by everybody. This is because they play hard, they scrap, and they win. This is a huge test for the Oilers, who play hockey at a super high gear. I think this is one of those learning experiences, where they have to see how tough the playoffs are before they eventually win a Cup. I hope I'm wrong because frick the Ducks. DUCKS in 6.

BLUES v PREDATORS
Jake Allen flat stole that series. Boudreau wasn't just whining he was right. His team outplayed the other, but hockey ain't fair. And hot goalies eventually cool off. The Preds, OTOH, beat the holy hell out of the West favorites, and looked ridiculous doing it. They've got a goalie just as hot, and the best line in hockey right now. Also, the Blues are cursed. PREDS in 6.

SENATORS v RANGERS
The existence of this series pisses me off, as the Caps and Pens play. The Sens beat a wounded Bruins team that isn't terribly good in the first place, and the Rags beat a Habs team that has no offense. I could not be less excited for this matchup to see who will be the East runner up. Karlsson is the best player, but he's playing hurt, and that catches up to you. Sigh. It'll be Lundqvist. RANGERS in 7 because there is no God and we're getting 7 games of this.

CAPS v PENS
The Pens won last year largely based on relying Murray and Letang, neither of whom will play in this series. The Caps have massively improved the back end of their roster, and there will be no Mike Weber to exploit. The Caps have a better roster, but they did last year, too, and fat lot of good it did them. But I think the absence of Letang is the difference. CAPS in 7.
Posted by mizslu314
Dirty STL
Member since Sep 2013
16734 posts
Posted on 4/26/17 at 11:30 am to
Posted by Gary Busey
Member since Dec 2014
33277 posts
Posted on 4/26/17 at 12:05 pm to
Good luck to the Blues tonight. Hope it's a 7-game series
Posted by TheXman
Middle America
Member since Feb 2017
2984 posts
Posted on 4/26/17 at 3:18 pm to
quote:

The Pens won last year largely based on relying Murray and Letang, neither of whom will play in this series. The Caps have massively improved the back end of their roster, and there will be no Mike Weber to exploit. The Caps have a better roster, but they did last year, too, and fat lot of good it did them. But I think the absence of Letang is the difference.


I am expecting Crosby, Malkin et al to torch Shattenkirk in the Caps zone. Shattenkirk just needs to even that up on the offensive side and they need to protect him from any d zone faceoffs.
Posted by Baloo
Formerly MDGeaux
Member since Sep 2003
49645 posts
Posted on 4/26/17 at 4:41 pm to
Shattenkirk-Orpik is the Caps third pair. They skate the least amount of minutes and when the Caps control the last change at home, they will rarely face the Pens' top two lines.

The Malkin line is definitely the biggest concern. Paired with Kessel, Malkin destroyed the Blue Jackets defense. They scored a ton of goals, controlled possession, and only allowed allowed one even strength goal in the series.

Crosby's most common line, with Guentzel and Sheary, is pretty much all Crosby. It had the Penguins most amount of chances, but it also gave up the most. That line combo was actually a -4 on the series. They push so far into your end, they end up giving up a ton of chances on the other. So... it's a lot like the Caps' Kuzy-Mojo-Williams line. Defense optional.

You single out Shattenkirk as the Caps' worst defender. I think that's fair. Sorted by minutes, the Pens' blueline is Maata, Cole, Hainsey, Dumoulin, Schultz, and Daley. None had a positive Corsi in the CBJ series, and all allowed over 60 shots allowed per 60 minutes of ice time (not SOG, total shots including blocked shots). The only Pens' defenseman with better shot suppression totals than Shattenkirk in the playoffs is Daley. That's... um... not good.

In short, the Caps only have to hide one defensemen in his own end. The Penguins have to find a way to hide five.
Posted by TheXman
Middle America
Member since Feb 2017
2984 posts
Posted on 4/26/17 at 4:44 pm to
quote:

In short, the Caps only have to hide one defensemen in his own end. The Penguins have to find a way to hide five.


I think that's a fair assessment. I think the Penguins are better offensively (it's hard to go against the best player in the league) and the Capitals are better defensively.

For some reason the Penguins have that 'it' factor. It could just be because they won last year but you are right, missing Letang is huge.

I expect this to be a high scoring exciting series. My head tells me Penguins win but I want the Capitals.
Posted by Baloo
Formerly MDGeaux
Member since Sep 2003
49645 posts
Posted on 4/26/17 at 4:55 pm to
Yeah, if it's a track meet, the Penguins win. The Penguins are a better version of the Leafs: tons of scoring particularly on the top two lines, lots of speed, not much on the blueline. If it goes the way the first few game sof the Leafs series go, the Caps will lose. They can trade chances with the Penguins (they've got some scorers themselves), but it causes their biggest advantage to disappear.

Caps don't need this to be a Dead Puck Era game or anything, but they can't play at the Penguins breakneck pace. That's a recipe for disaster. They want it to be a game in which they hold possession for long periods of time, cycling the zone, looking for the shot. They need to make this a zone-to-zone game.

The Penguins are the top scoring team in the NHL. the Caps are third. Both teams can fill the net. On the other end, the Caps are 1st in goals allowed, the Penguins are 17th. The difference in these teams is on the blueline (and slightly in that the Caps have more forward depth, though the Pens have the advantage on the top two lines).
Posted by GeauxTigers2020
Member since Sep 2013
28667 posts
Posted on 4/26/17 at 7:05 pm to
(no message)
This post was edited on 3/9/26 at 11:12 pm
Posted by GeauxTigers2020
Member since Sep 2013
28667 posts
Posted on 4/26/17 at 7:05 pm to
(no message)
This post was edited on 3/9/26 at 11:12 pm
Posted by sms151t
Polos, Porsches, Ponies..PROBATION
Member since Aug 2009
141011 posts
Posted on 4/26/17 at 7:10 pm to
Do we have both West games tonight?
Posted by GeauxTigers2020
Member since Sep 2013
28667 posts
Posted on 4/26/17 at 7:15 pm to
(no message)
This post was edited on 3/9/26 at 11:12 pm
Posted by sms151t
Polos, Porsches, Ponies..PROBATION
Member since Aug 2009
141011 posts
Posted on 4/26/17 at 7:15 pm to
Oh Pernell!!

Like to see Blues win but I am a Pernell fan.
This post was edited on 4/26/17 at 7:17 pm
Posted by GeauxTigers2020
Member since Sep 2013
28667 posts
Posted on 4/26/17 at 7:20 pm to
(no message)
This post was edited on 3/9/26 at 11:12 pm
Posted by Bunk Moreland
Member since Dec 2010
70272 posts
Posted on 4/26/17 at 7:29 pm to
Pernell!
Posted by BayouBengals03
lsu14always
Member since Nov 2007
99999 posts
Posted on 4/26/17 at 7:30 pm to
Holy frick that was powerful
Posted by GeauxTigers2020
Member since Sep 2013
28667 posts
Posted on 4/26/17 at 7:31 pm to
(no message)
This post was edited on 3/9/26 at 11:12 pm
Posted by sms151t
Polos, Porsches, Ponies..PROBATION
Member since Aug 2009
141011 posts
Posted on 4/26/17 at 7:38 pm to
quote:

Blues PP is horrendous


I submit Montreal's That Mickey Mouse operation makes everything else look like the Soviets.
Posted by sms151t
Polos, Porsches, Ponies..PROBATION
Member since Aug 2009
141011 posts
Posted on 4/26/17 at 7:39 pm to
quote:

Definitely not Subban's goal.


You shush your mouth
Posted by quail man
New York, NY
Member since May 2010
41262 posts
Posted on 4/26/17 at 7:43 pm to
I really love Kenny doing hockey. I didn't care much for him on FOX doing football. This suits him well.
Posted by UnluckyTiger
Member since Sep 2003
43734 posts
Posted on 4/26/17 at 7:52 pm to
Preds in 5

Anaheim in 6

Caps in 7

Rangers in 7

Said earlier the Preds will own the Blues.

Letang being out is obviously huge but if the Pens have to rely on Fleury all series, it's going to be fun times at the Verizon Center. Hagelin being out is big too.

Kuzy and Mojo need to show up this series. It's imperative. Ovechkin and Oshie are going to do their thing.

Niskanen has been the best Caps damn all year and him and Orlov have been playing extremely well together.

Schmidt was arguably the MVP of the first round and Carlson looked to be rounding back into form over the last few games.

Hopefully the long layoff hurts the Pens tomorrow.

This is the most excited I've been for a Caps series since the 98 run.

This series will define the Ovechkin era.
This post was edited on 4/26/17 at 7:58 pm
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