re: Will these tariffs be a death blow for some small businesses?

Unfortunately, there’s no one single data repository that manages to capture it all.

So you are forced to extrapolate a bit.

Domestic producers who sell product in the United States are expected to file a report with the TTB every year. Unfortunately, it is a bit of a lagging indicator. Meaning we’re only just now starting to see the 2024 data.

Distributors who import products are expected to file as well.

Even that has its problems. The reporting is self-reported and probably not as closely monitored as you might expect. Technically, as a producer, you don’t necessarily have to report product that is still unsold and the same is true with the distributors in some instances.

There’s also an inherent problem in that it sort of lumps alcohol be at spirits, cider, wine or beer is being equivalent per gallon. There are different tax rates associated with the different alcohol percentages, but that is not made very transparent to the public. So the number they present is an aggregate of alcohol gallons which can be composed of different beverages.

There is retail trend data. This is pretty reliable as it uses Fintech. It shows what is going to big box retailers and liquor stores plus other outlets like gas stations. Only what’s going in; not what’s going out.

The fly in the ointment of all this is the small independent producer who doesn’t distribute and sells mostly direct to consumer through their tasting room or tap house. They aren’t captured by retail data at all.

From the retail data, we do know that alcohol sales are flat or in decline. Wine is down again; same with cider and craft beer. The only segment showing growth in the past year has actually been imported beer. Modelo overtaking Bud as Americas favorite beer.

From the TTB data, we do know that that small independent guy is really hurting right now. That’s why so many are closing. Their gallons reported have shown huge reductions.

You can also look at the number of producer licenses, which are either being terminated or not renewed. This is the story I’m watching over the next 24 months.