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re: Will the Bitcoin selling start accelerating?

Posted on 2/6/26 at 6:47 pm to
Posted by beaverfever
Arkansas
Member since Jan 2008
35783 posts
Posted on 2/6/26 at 6:47 pm to
You really don’t know why MSTR was up so dramatically today relative to IBIT on such high volume. This is day 1 stuff if you’re going to mock people.
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
39091 posts
Posted on 2/6/26 at 6:56 pm to
quote:

You really don’t know why MSTR was up so dramatically today relative to IBIT on such high volume. This is day 1 stuff if you’re going to mock people.
You really are unaware of MSTR's holdings?
Posted by beaverfever
Arkansas
Member since Jan 2008
35783 posts
Posted on 2/6/26 at 7:08 pm to
quote:

When the Put-Call Ratio (PCR) crashes because puts are closing, the mechanical driver is the unwinding of short hedges by market makers. This creates a "forced bid" in the underlying stock that has nothing to do with investor sentiment and everything to do with balancing a ledger.
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
39091 posts
Posted on 2/6/26 at 7:17 pm to
Yeah, thanks. And I'm sure the underlying being 15% higher had nothing do with it.
Posted by PhiTiger1764
Lurker since Aug 2003
Member since Oct 2009
14523 posts
Posted on 2/6/26 at 7:46 pm to
quote:

I asked the question earlier and am looking for an actual answer: if spot price is way below current mining price, what happens if miners just pack it in?

Seems like someone in since 2013 should know this. If mining becomes an unprofitable endeavor, with costs exceeding the value of rewards produced, people will simply stop mining. As miners go offline, this will lower the hash rate. The difficulty adjustment will recalibrate and it will become easier and cheaper to mine new blocks.

So then the miners will return because it becomes profitable again.
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
82140 posts
Posted on 2/6/26 at 8:00 pm to
Bitcoin difficulty adjusts with mining capacity falling off thus lowering the cost to mine thus brining new mining capacity back online

Eta: Phi said basically the same exact thing. And good point pointing out that someone in it from 2013 shouldn’t be asking that bitcoin 101 question
This post was edited on 2/6/26 at 8:04 pm
Posted by lsuconnman
Baton rouge
Member since Feb 2007
4719 posts
Posted on 2/6/26 at 8:11 pm to
quote:

As miners go offline, this will lower the hash rate. The difficulty adjustment will recalibrate and it will become easier and cheaper to mine new blocks.


C’mon, let’s think about that for a second. Theres nothing more sacred to bitcoiners than the halvings, and the belief in its finite number.

People were spending $100k to mine one when the price was $110k. I’m sure they’d spend $1mil if it’s worth $1.1 but…

If the difficulty decreases to keep the chain viable…it means the price dipped. When the system recalibrates for the first time to make it easier to mine the remaining coins, that’s the signal the system collapsed.

Posted by beaverfever
Arkansas
Member since Jan 2008
35783 posts
Posted on 2/6/26 at 8:41 pm to
Also interesting for someone to be in since 2013 and have btc only make up 1% of their net worth. Or for someone to hodl something for 13 years that they have disdain for despite the fact that it has returned their initial investment ~200x.
This post was edited on 2/6/26 at 8:42 pm
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
82140 posts
Posted on 2/6/26 at 9:44 pm to
quote:

If the difficulty decreases to keep the chain viable…it means the price dipped. When the system recalibrates for the first time to make it easier to mine the remaining coins, that’s the signal the system collapsed.

There have been multiple events where hash fell off significantly, difficulty adjusted, and over timing mining capacity returned to the network. The big one I can recall was the China mining ban a few years ago. Something like 30% of mining capacity left the system due to that event. It recovered with no issues
Posted by FAT SEXY
California
Member since Jun 2020
1746 posts
Posted on 2/7/26 at 2:21 am to
Bitcoin has the most fugly/fake looking chart I've ever seen.

It has institutional pump & dump written all over it.

If it rockets randomly again, more power to the people buying it deep, but it'll only reaffirm my belief that institutional money is pumping it.

It has no support structure at all. It jumps fast and then bleeds out until the next cycle.

It's musical chairs on when the game stops and that's why I won't buy it.

When does it actually switch from this gambit to a stable asset?

My theory: it's a government ploy to suck M2 liquidity rather than an organic movement. Either that, or they hijacked it. They were probably hoping the world would start buying into it, which really isn't happening.
This post was edited on 2/7/26 at 3:06 am
Posted by AUCE05
Member since Dec 2009
45215 posts
Posted on 2/7/26 at 7:18 am to
It has always been a PnD. Watching the fanbois talk about mass adoption was fantastic
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
39091 posts
Posted on 2/7/26 at 10:01 am to
quote:

Also interesting for someone to be in since 2013 and have btc only make up 1% of their net worth. Or for someone to hodl something for 13 years that they have disdain for despite the fact that it has returned their initial investment ~200x.
Lots of assumptions in there. On brand for the fanboys.
Posted by AirbusDawg
Milton, Ga
Member since Jan 2018
3005 posts
Posted on 2/7/26 at 10:23 am to
Ocean front property in Arizona and Bitcoin will soon be valued the same. It's all a fantasy.
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
82140 posts
Posted on 2/7/26 at 11:25 am to
Says the guy that is heavily invested in the most manipulated asset in the history of the planet...

I don't disagree with everything you've said there but take the blinders off when you speak on institutional manipulation
Posted by lsuconnman
Baton rouge
Member since Feb 2007
4719 posts
Posted on 2/7/26 at 1:11 pm to
quote:

It has no support structure at all. It jumps fast and then bleeds out until the next cycle.


You’re gonna a trigger the chartists who swear by the fundamentals.
Posted by FAT SEXY
California
Member since Jun 2020
1746 posts
Posted on 2/7/26 at 1:16 pm to
The difference: Gold/Silver weren't just "created" out of thin air by some person/agency. They're actual elements, not numbers on a screen. They'll still be here and valued by humans when the current systems are nothing more than a footnote in the history books.

It's easier for me to believe in something that has practical real world applications, on top of track records of being money going back thousands of years.

BTC could go to zero, Silver & Gold simply cannot. I don't view them as risky/speculative on a long time scale

I'm probably derailing the thread, so apologies
Posted by The Baker
This is fine.
Member since Dec 2011
19343 posts
Posted on 2/7/26 at 1:48 pm to
quote:

not numbers on a screen


Do you trade gold/silver with an online brokerage?
Posted by WG_Dawg
Member since Jun 2004
89909 posts
Posted on 2/7/26 at 1:53 pm to
quote:

It has always been a PnD


-said everyone for the last 16 years.
Posted by WG_Dawg
Member since Jun 2004
89909 posts
Posted on 2/7/26 at 1:56 pm to
quote:

Gold/Silver weren't just "created" out of thin air by some person/agency. They're actual elements, not numbers on a screen.


why do they have value other than that people all agree that they have value?

quote:

BTC could go to zero, Silver & Gold simply cannot


why not? The same organizational structure that currently deems that silver and gold have value could also decide one day they're no more valuable than a tomato.
Posted by Pimphand
Member since Sep 2021
4626 posts
Posted on 2/7/26 at 2:11 pm to
quote:

The difference: Gold/Silver weren't just "created" out of thin air by some person/agency. They're actual elements, not numbers on a screen. They'll still be here and valued by humans when the current systems are nothing more than a footnote in the history books.

It's easier for me to believe in something that has practical real world applications, on top of track records of being money going back thousands of years.

BTC could go to zero, Silver & Gold simply cannot. I don't view them as risky/speculative on a long time scale

I'm probably derailing the thread, so apologies


Baw you are right for the most part however BTC does possess attributes that precious metals do not. What we need to realize is both sides are fighting the same fight (wealth preservation against the crooks) and we are both victim to their manipulation.

In an ideal world we have a privacy oriented blockchain where custody of precious metals can be tracked to the physical location, subject to frequent audits, and cannot be rehypothecated. Then we would have a sound money system where we can move freely about the earth without the encumbrance of precious metals but also not have this over leveraged many times over rehypothecated sham game that only rewards the 0.1% who can create the money from thin air and collect interest on it.
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