When do Renewables make a comeback?

If you look at renewable companies, they took off in late 20 to mid 22. Whether they are sustainable aviation fuel, Carbon capture sequestration projects, Green hydrogen, quasi solar/wind (reason I say quasi is they've been established for decades. It's more of the new kind of renewables), EVs (Rivian was $130 now $10ish).

At some point these will make a comeback. I don't know when. Could be 1 year, 3, 5, or 10 but they'll make a comeback. When do you expect it to? Tbh, now may be a good time to get back in.

I do believe the world will transition from oil and gas. Many companies pledge completely carbon neutral by 2050. Paris agreement in Europe says too. I don't think it's a question of will it happen or not, but when will it happen. I think by 2030 you will see a real large take off in the industry where significant market share becomes newer renewable energy methods other than solar/wind.

Also Europe is starting a tax on CO2 emissions beginning 2030, $300/metric ton for CO2 abaters like refineries, concrete producers. To put in perspective, a refinery can easily release 1 million metric tons of CO2 a year which means a $300 million plus penalty for them. It's much cheaper for them to capture CO2, pipeline it to a well, and inject. Prob something in the $50-75/MT range to do that having modeled these projects. Once that occurs, it'll change for them as that's extremely expensive compared to the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 in the US that offers $85 per metric ton of CO2 sequestered. Europe is penalizing emitters in 2030 while US is offering tax credits for lowering emissions but under 1/3 what Europe is penalizing at for emitters.

I feel in next 5 years that these stocks will take off again.

Some companies to look at are Hydrogen projects. The IRA 2022 offers $3/kg of H2 for projects that emit less than 0.45 kg of CO2 per kg of H2. Hydrogen trades today around 90 cents a kg. That $3/kg tax credit can be profitable if done right and is over 3x what "grey" hydrogen costs on market today. Sustainable aviation fuel refiners is supposed to be another large industry. Valero is already building a SAF plant in Houston. Exxon is as well. BP is plannin to build 5 plants. There's opportunity to find a smaller company who does this and get a 10-bagger. Exxon, BP, Valero won't 10x increase due to massive size, but the small caps entering this can. Every airline has pledged to have 10% of their fuel be SAF (Sustainable aviation fuel) by 2030 and 100% by 2050. SAF is basically plant or animal fat oils (could be McDonald's cooking oil or soybean oil). Since it's not taken from underground and already on surface which would release CO2 anyways, it's better for environment. Oil and gas is underground so poses no risk where it is for Co2 emissions unless it's extracted. In addition, companies can use carbon capture and sequestration on the projects to even get more tax credits on SAF from the 45Z tax credit from Biden's IRA 2022.

2 small cap companies I know going into SAF plants are Aemetis and Lanzatech who are down a lot recently. They each have LOIs for offtake from major airlines for when they start producing SAF sometime around 2027/8. There's a few others.

These types of projects will all start to make headwinds by 2030 imo. Prob not before 2027-ish. I do extensive research in this industry. Want to give all a heads up that this will be a big industry by 2030.