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Started By
Message
Whats the best guess on the CPI in the morning?
Posted on 6/9/22 at 7:30 pm
Posted on 6/9/22 at 7:30 pm
Whats expected? I took a flier on a few SPY options at the end of the session today, so I'm at the mercy if the open in the am.
4
Posted on 6/9/22 at 7:50 pm to the LSUSaint
Is CPI the actual inflation, or the one where they don't consider a home/food to be needed?
Real 12%
CPI 8.3%
Real 12%
CPI 8.3%
This post was edited on 6/9/22 at 7:52 pm
Posted on 6/9/22 at 7:53 pm to McCorkleJonesGOAT
quote:
Is CPI the actual inflation, or the one where they don't consider a home/food to be needed
It's the one the manipulate every few years to show a lower value.
I'm guessing 8.4%
Posted on 6/9/22 at 8:05 pm to the LSUSaint
I definitely think it’s higher than they were expecting and it’s even higher than the number they release.
Posted on 6/9/22 at 8:09 pm to McCorkleJonesGOAT
Core is expected at 5.9%. I’m guessing the sell off this afternoon was due to someone getting a leak on the data early and they were front running it. Given that, I’ll say 6.1% for core.
This post was edited on 6/9/22 at 8:13 pm
Posted on 6/9/22 at 10:00 pm to Shepherd88
Sure did take a dive at the end. Markets are skittish. Report to be released prior to market open at 8:30 AM EST.
Might be a hell of a day tomorrow.
Inflation can’t be peaking like some people are spewing. They just don’t want to rattle the markets. But you can only hide from reality for so long. Fuel has been going through the roof and the report is backward looking so that’s not even in the data yet. High energy costs affects everything.
Might be a hell of a day tomorrow.
Inflation can’t be peaking like some people are spewing. They just don’t want to rattle the markets. But you can only hide from reality for so long. Fuel has been going through the roof and the report is backward looking so that’s not even in the data yet. High energy costs affects everything.
Posted on 6/9/22 at 10:11 pm to the LSUSaint
Japan and China reported tonight. Both were lower than expected. I’m betting lower than expected.
Posted on 6/9/22 at 11:58 pm to UpstairsComputer
quote:
I’m betting lower than expected
Does it matter? Energy and food have gone through the roof and they are not included in CPI. At the end of the day all that matters is what the consumer has in their wallet.
I’m betting it’s much less…..
Posted on 6/10/22 at 1:08 am to UpstairsComputer
I'm going with 8.8 and the Fed enacting a 100 basis point move.
Posted on 6/10/22 at 5:50 am to Realityintheface
quote:
Inflation can’t be peaking like some people are spewing.
Inflation is going to stay high, but the increase rate is likely near a peak. It's still a few readings away from knowing for sure if it's in decline.
I'm on the side that thinks CPI will come in lower than expected, but most importantly coming out of the news and next week is the Fed will continue with its planned rate hikes for the year. It would be pathetic if they slowed the rate hikes.
quote:
High energy costs affects everything.
Very true, but oil prices are going to come down soon. There's going to be a point of demand destruction regardless. Many bullish traders think demand will still be strong through the summer, but I think that's wrong and the prices are near a top. Coupling high inflation and high gas prices, there are many people already in a money crunch and are not taking those vacations/road trips and also trying to limit their driving.
Posted on 6/10/22 at 6:02 am to JimMorrison
Dude you’re nuts if you think gas prices are coming down much anytime soon. Refinery capacity production is running in the 90+%, inventories are low, overseas is screaming for fuel so domestics can exports for major bank, hurricane season is coming, turnarounds can’t be put off forever regardless of the crackspread. This shite is far from over
Posted on 6/10/22 at 6:22 am to sawtooth
quote:
Does it matter? Energy and food have gone through the roof and they are not included in CPI. At the end of the day all that matters is what the consumer has in their wallet.
So this is the catch to the Fed. Core (ex energy and food) is what they pay attention to.
And if Core starts to show it’s dropping over the next few months then they will likely pause their rate hikes, no matter what headline cpi (+food and energy). They will just say that food/energy is caused by Russia and out of their control
Posted on 6/10/22 at 6:23 am to the LSUSaint
The info CNBC has been running from their survey says it will hold at 8.3, so we will see in an hour.
Posted on 6/10/22 at 6:25 am to MrLSU
quote:
I'm going with 8.8 and the Fed enacting a 100 basis point move.
That’s a pretty bold prediction.
Posted on 6/10/22 at 6:27 am to slackster
Tinfoil hat time, it is higher than last time in reality but they are cooking the numbers. Too close to the election.
Gas is up almost .50 since the last one, as fuel goes so does everything else.
Gas is up almost .50 since the last one, as fuel goes so does everything else.
This post was edited on 6/10/22 at 6:28 am
Posted on 6/10/22 at 6:28 am to slackster
quote:
That’s a pretty bold prediction.
Yeah wanna talk about hitting an iceberg.
Didn’t Russia lower rates over night? Not that nothing they do matters, but interesting.
Posted on 6/10/22 at 7:32 am to Lsut81
US May Consumer Prices Increase 8.6% From Year Earlier; Core CPI Up 6% Over Year
BLS Press Release
BLS Press Release
This post was edited on 6/10/22 at 7:33 am
Posted on 6/10/22 at 7:33 am to BeYou
Not good…
Posted on 6/10/22 at 7:37 am to BeYou
Damn!
This post was edited on 6/10/22 at 7:37 am
Posted on 6/10/22 at 7:42 am to GeorgeTheGreek
Don’t worry, analysts holding the line… “it’s going to cool soon” 
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