- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
What is everyone thoughts on risk of 20y Zero treasuries ytm 4.20%
Posted on 7/8/23 at 1:04 pm
Posted on 7/8/23 at 1:04 pm
For my retirement I put maybe 7-8% in 20 year zero treasuries ytm 4.17%. thinking about putting most to all of my fixed income long term over next 3-6 months.
Short term thinking we go up .5 on interest rate and drop next 2-3 years.
It seems like 4.2% is solid. Just wonder if I am a victim to last 10 years of not interest
Guess biggest risk is 2% if rates stay high?
Short term thinking we go up .5 on interest rate and drop next 2-3 years.
It seems like 4.2% is solid. Just wonder if I am a victim to last 10 years of not interest
Guess biggest risk is 2% if rates stay high?
4
Posted on 7/8/23 at 1:25 pm to thelawnwranglers
What’s the value in 4.2%? Do you have any real concern you wouldn’t get that in the market over 20 years? Unless you’re retiring now and going full fixed income, you don’t need to guarantee returns with long bonds
Posted on 7/8/23 at 1:31 pm to Upperdecker
quote:
What’s the value in 4.2%? Do you have any real concern you wouldn’t get that in the market over 20 years? Unless you’re retiring now and going full fixed income, you don’t need to guarantee returns with long bonds
It was 3.45% last year. I am just talking on 20% of portfolio that fixed income. I am 44 and was all securities want to smooth out performance a little
Are you asking why have fixed income or why go long term
This post was edited on 7/8/23 at 1:33 pm
Posted on 7/8/23 at 1:37 pm to thelawnwranglers
Bonds have been in a multi-decade bull run.
We might be in a spot where bonds are trash over the long term.
As a 11-24 month investment probably not the worst idea out there.
We might be in a spot where bonds are trash over the long term.
As a 11-24 month investment probably not the worst idea out there.
Posted on 7/8/23 at 1:44 pm to LSUcam7
quote:
We might be in a spot where bonds are trash over the long term.
Aka rates are going higher long-term?
Posted on 7/8/23 at 4:57 pm to thelawnwranglers
When I was 44 years old I didn't have any of my retirement funds in bonds. If I am understanding your post you only have about 7 or 8 % in bonds so I wouldn't argue against that.
I am guessing interest rates will not be going much higher. Larry Fink from Blackrock (or is he with Blackstone?) said this week that he thinks the Fed might raise rates another 1% before the end of the year. Other "experts" are saying less. So if rates go up your existing bonds will decrease in value but new bonds will pay more interest. If, or when, rates go down your existing bonds will increase in value. Having some money in bonds at current rates isn't a bad idea. Better to buy now than 2 or 3 years ago.
I am guessing interest rates will not be going much higher. Larry Fink from Blackrock (or is he with Blackstone?) said this week that he thinks the Fed might raise rates another 1% before the end of the year. Other "experts" are saying less. So if rates go up your existing bonds will decrease in value but new bonds will pay more interest. If, or when, rates go down your existing bonds will increase in value. Having some money in bonds at current rates isn't a bad idea. Better to buy now than 2 or 3 years ago.
Posted on 7/8/23 at 4:59 pm to thelawnwranglers
How old are you? How many years to retirement?
Posted on 7/8/23 at 5:33 pm to kaaj24
quote:
How old are you? How many years to retirement?
44 so 20
Posted on 7/8/23 at 5:35 pm to PlanoPrivateer
quote:
When I was 44 years old I didn't have any of my retirement funds in bonds. If I am understanding your post you only have about 7 or 8 % in bonds so I wouldn't argue against that.
Understood
I did so well post covid when. I was 100% equities but seems like I equalize at some point.
One thing I like if rates crash then basically bonds mature eatly
Posted on 7/8/23 at 10:32 pm to thelawnwranglers
If rates are going up then it’s not a good time to go heavy on bonds. But possibly time to scale in. JMO
Posted on 7/8/23 at 11:47 pm to TigerDeBaiter
quote:
If rates are going up then it’s not a good time to go heavy on bonds. But possibly time to scale in. JMO
I do t want to go heavy just wondering ob fixed income portion of portfolio how much short term vs long term. My thesis is short term will be good next year but then will loss out
Posted on 7/9/23 at 6:19 am to thelawnwranglers
Review the charts on what happened to treasury bonds within the 24 months following each previous Fed pause.
Pretty compelling returns, … and that’s coming from someone who has typically avoided them. Now is the time to begin nibbling …. to DCA-in to bond positions in preparation for the harvest
Long TMF, long TLT ….
Pretty compelling returns, … and that’s coming from someone who has typically avoided them. Now is the time to begin nibbling …. to DCA-in to bond positions in preparation for the harvest
Long TMF, long TLT ….
This post was edited on 7/9/23 at 6:26 am
Posted on 7/9/23 at 3:03 pm to cadillacattack
I do feel like in 2-3 years we are all going to be saying to ourselves “this was such an obvious place to go heavy”. Not now, but maybe towards the end of this year.
There’s no way our government can afford higher rates for any substantial period of time. So, we’ll go lower again… or the government defaults and it’s a similar thought. Well, of course the debt was completely unsustainable .
There’s no way our government can afford higher rates for any substantial period of time. So, we’ll go lower again… or the government defaults and it’s a similar thought. Well, of course the debt was completely unsustainable .
Page 1 of 1
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News