re: Venture Global NYSE Release

Welp. That uptick didn’t last long. Back in the 7s.

Shell challenges arbitration decision on Venture Global LNG supply contracts

Bought this morning.

Sub $7 bump

quote:

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I sold all today

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You avoided another 25% in losses.

I might try this company for a swing trade. Feels like all the potential bad news is likely baked in here, and showing strong support at 6.75. I might buy in and put stop loss at 6.45. They turned profitable this quarter.

Back at $6.75 intraday today.

Big gap down today. Flirting with $6/share.

For me, as a believer in Nat Gas, I am more comfortable owning Cheniere than I was owning Venture.

Bounced around and dropped again during power hour.

Is $6 a support point, or just a stop on a slow miserable path to bankruptcy.

How is their cash flow? Any need to issue new shares? (Dilution?)

I own a good chunk of VG at $7.30 avg price. I had a discussion with Grok about it, for what it's worth and sharing it here. My thesis is that the value of the assets alone should be a floor. I'm probably wrong....wouldn't be the first time.
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Question about invested value of assets.
**Venture Global LNG has invested approximately $43.3 billion** in its LNG facilities as of September 30, 2025. This figure reflects the net book value of property, plant, and equipment (PPE) reported in the company's Q3 2025 financials, which primarily consists of capitalized costs for constructing and commissioning assets like the Calcasieu Pass (10 MTPA capacity, operational since 2022), Plaquemines LNG (27 MTPA across two phases, commissioning in 2025), and CP2 LNG (Phase 1 at 20 MTPA, under construction with FID in July 2025). For context, capex spending reached $6.4 billion in the first half of 2025 alone, driving PPE up from $34.7 billion at the end of 2024.

The company has raised over $80 billion in total capital since inception (through Q2 2025), including recent financings like $15.1 billion for CP2 Phase 1 and $4 billion in senior secured notes for Plaquemines. Planned expansions, such as a potential $18 billion add-on to Plaquemines for another 18 MTPA, could push total project commitments beyond $75 billion, but the $43.3 billion marks sunk costs to date.

At a $14 billion market cap, the stock trades at a steep discount to invested capital—implying a price-to-book ratio under 0.4—which does highlight acquisition appeal. However, several factors explain why it hasn't been snapped up yet:

- **Ongoing legal disputes and arbitration risks**: Venture Global faces multimillion-dollar claims from customers (e.g., BP, Shell, Edison) for allegedly delaying contracted deliveries to sell spot cargoes at higher prices during commissioning. It lost a $1 billion arbitration to BP in October 2025 (with potential for up to $11 billion in total exposure across cases), and similar suits are pending. These have created uncertainty, with FERC also investigating contract compliance.

- **High leverage and cash burn**: Long-term debt stands at $31.7 billion (up from $29.1 billion at year-end 2024), fueled by aggressive expansion. Despite $9.3 billion in nine-month revenue and positive EBITDA ($4.3 billion), operations generated negative free cash flow due to heavy capex, leaving just $2.6 billion in cash as of mid-2025.

- **Stock volatility and execution risks**: The January 2025 IPO targeted a $110 billion valuation but closed lower; shares then plunged to $17 billion amid disputes and market skepticism, contributing to the current $14 billion cap. Analysts note "slander-era" reputational hits from Big Oil critics, plus broader concerns over U.S. LNG economics (e.g., Shell's CEO calling some projects "not economically fully rational").

These issues have deterred buyers despite the asset value, though resolution of arbitrations (some wins already, like vs. Shell) and Plaquemines ramp-up could shift dynamics. If you're eyeing an acquisition play, watch Q4 earnings for updates on damages and offtake (e.g., recent 1 MTPA deals with Mitsui and PETRONAS).