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re: Uranium>Silver
Posted on 4/22/22 at 4:24 pm to molsusports
Posted on 4/22/22 at 4:24 pm to molsusports
I'm interested in the conversation.
All of my energy stocks were red today - oil, gas, nuclear, coal, "green"... None were green.
All of my energy stocks were red today - oil, gas, nuclear, coal, "green"... None were green.
2
Posted on 4/26/22 at 6:34 am to Lightning
Uranium volatility works both ways; it makes stomaching some of these drops very difficult but the thesis is still more than intact and this is a great entry point for newbies IMO.
URNM and Sput (SRUUF) are no brainer adds at these levels. We've discussed before in this thread, but I highly suggest watching Justin Huhn's Uranium Market Minute clips on Youtube. Usually 10-20 minute videos of his updates on the sector and they are very informative.
URNM and Sput (SRUUF) are no brainer adds at these levels. We've discussed before in this thread, but I highly suggest watching Justin Huhn's Uranium Market Minute clips on Youtube. Usually 10-20 minute videos of his updates on the sector and they are very informative.
Posted on 5/2/22 at 6:26 pm to itsbigmikey
You baws still hanging on? Still in UUUU and just patiently riding the wave looking for another purchase with more selling.
Posted on 5/2/22 at 6:41 pm to DabosDynasty
Still hanging on. Thesis keeps improving.
I learned an option lesson bad... but core holdign staying long
I learned an option lesson bad... but core holdign staying long
Posted on 5/3/22 at 6:09 am to igoringa
Same. Only calls I'm buying are leaps. I have a few for later this year but the majority are for next and for 2024. It's easy to get frustrated but when I remember why I get invested in this it makes it much easier for me to hold.
The supply/demand dynamics are there for explosive upside and all of the extra catalysts involving Eastern Europe/Russia that have happened are only going to emphasize that supply deficit aren't even factored into my original decision. Holding with conviction and plan on sprinkling in more leaps when we get signs of a reversal.
The supply/demand dynamics are there for explosive upside and all of the extra catalysts involving Eastern Europe/Russia that have happened are only going to emphasize that supply deficit aren't even factored into my original decision. Holding with conviction and plan on sprinkling in more leaps when we get signs of a reversal.
Posted on 5/3/22 at 10:56 am to itsbigmikey
Shoulda dumped my CCJ spreads when they were up, got greedy. Now i'm way out of the money :(
Posted on 5/6/22 at 12:30 pm to j1897
Added some more UUUU today being under $7/share. Didn’t last time and regretted it so pushed the button this time.
Posted on 5/8/22 at 10:34 pm to Lightning
quote:
I'm interested in the conversation.
All of my energy stocks were red today - oil, gas, nuclear, coal, "green"... None were green.
I"m not sure what would be most helpful for the board but I'll start out talking about a lot of the general information about the uranium market (which is discussed at great length by a lot of Uranium Companies Investor Presentations and pro Uranium investors social media channels).
Briefly, Uranium is a commodity with a weird market. Most of the Uranium that is sold is sold directly by producers to the consumers (e.g. utilities). The price that they pay is negotiated generally for a five or ten year contract period. Those prices are often not released to the general public but they obviously vary by producer (who have different costs of production because of concentration of Uranium in the ground, type of extractions procedures they perform, costs of local labor, costs of building or maintaining infrastructure in different parts of the world etc). Sometimes the contract price is affected in part by the current "spot" price (extra supply sold by suppliers or consumers who don't need or have contracted the "excess" Uranium they are selling). The other thing Uranium investors will also hear about that may be confusing at the start is carry traders or carry trading sourced Uranium - which is Uranium arbitrage in which a middle party between consumer and producer is delivering a year or two in the future after the contract was signed (the carry traders are currently probably getting squeezed out by the purchase of Uranium by the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust).
In broad terms the Uranium market is shockingly small for such as massively important industry. In the dip of 2020 the whole Uranium market dipped under 10 billion in total value. This frankly makes no sense whatsoever for an industry that supplies around 20% of American electricity and around 11% of worldwide electricity. Proponents of nuclear also make the case that nuclear is green relative to other options and can even be considered carbon free depending on how you do the accounting.
The price of Uranium as a commodity has had a bunch of massive ups and downs over its history. This boom and bust has been a bust for the global Uranium market since the Japanese nuclear accident. That accident put a giant scare into a lot of countries around the world prominently including the Japanese (who shut down their plants) and the Germans (who did the same). The glut of Uranium overproduction a little over a decade ago is now essentially reversed because we've seen a lot of countries reopening plants (the Japanese) and some adding a lot of plants that were not planned before (especially the Chinese but also the British). Essentially, we've gone from a bust cycle with a lot of overly cheap Uranium (that companies were functionally selling below the costs of discovery and production) to a time where the total global production estimates are going to be significantly lower than the global consumption estimates for upwards of the next several years. If you listened to talking heads about Uranium prices two years ago the common wisdom was average costs of Uranium would have to cross $60 per pound to incentivize production but that consensus number may now be increasing to $80 (which would still only marginally affect the cost of electricity since the construction and maintenance of a Nuclear Power plant is massively more expensive than the input costs of Uranium).
A big mover in the price of Uranium generally is the consumer. Over the last decade most utility consumers have been able to buy Uranium cheaply from spot or carry traders and have frankly had no incentive to sign contracts with producers that were adequate to meet the costs of production (let alone turn a significant profit for all but the cheapest producers). Since the excess Uranium that flooded the market has apparently now been largely consumed by the Sprott Physical Uranium trust we are much more likely for "price discovery" to start affecting the market and finally making so many of the Uranium companies increase in value.
That's the broad case for Uranium investment. It's efficient. It's massively under priced relative to its value. We have a major deficit in the amount of the commodity available for the near to middle future. And the utility consumers are running less than two years of reserve materials on average and will have to pay the price because there's no good alternative substitute that can match the cost, baselode reliability, safety, and green energy concerns.
Next post I'll briefly talk about the investment options.
Posted on 5/8/22 at 11:27 pm to molsusports
ETFs: URNM - NorthShore Global Mining (or Sprott Uranium Miners ETF)
Pretty much the only game in town for an ETF in this industry. There is also the Global X Uranium ETF but it is only about 70% Uranium. The ETF does periodically readjust their holdings and you can investigate their investments: URNM
By investing in this ETF you are investing more than 10% in the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust. Thus, resulting in a "flywheel effect" in which buying the ETF results in the purchase of additional physical Uranium and further increases the spot price and removes more spot from the market (that other consumers can not buy instead of signing contracts to meet their ongoing consumption needs).
Big Producers: At least arguably there are only two "big" producers in the world: Kazatomprom and Cameco. Kazatomprom produces significantly more Uranium than Cameco. Kazatomprom is hampered by their location in Kazakhstan (which had an energy price related uprising earlier this year and threatened to stop the production at the world's #1 producer). Kazatomprom in the last Uranium bull cycle was also partially responsible for overproduction issues that flooded the worldwide markets. In more recent years their management have made many statements about a change in that philosophy RE: pricing and have shown relative discipline lately with production. In terms of price of the stock relative to pounds that will be produced (baring civil war) Kazatomprom is easily the best value. Cameco is in a stable location (Canada) but faces intermittent difficulties with mines flooding (stopping production), regulatory requirements of the Canadian government (okay for now but might be a challenge if they buy out another Canadian explorer or developer and have to get the mines permitted), and keeping the First Nation stakeholders satisfied (apparently okay right now).
There's obviously risk in investing in Kazatomprom especially if their country devolves into civil war but they also have enormous advantages when it comes to volume of production and the cheap costs of mining/extraction there compared to most everywhere else in the world. Cameco is also pretty much the center of production technology in the west as I understand it (which is not to say other companies don't have mills or technical ability - but in terms of current volume and perhaps expertise there's a gap as I understand it).
Medium Sized with Production:
Boss Energy (maybe belongs in this group)
CGN Mining Company (China General Nuclear Power Group)
Denison Mines
Energy Fuels (part of value from rare earths/vanadium)
Global Atomic (maybe, not producing yet)
Nexgen (maybe, still a couple years from production)
Slighty smaller market cap but have Uranium (no longer just explorers):
Alligator Energy (AGE) - several Australian Uranium projects
A-Cap Energy Limited (ACB) - uranium, nickel, and cobalt
Aura Energy (AUEEF) - vanadium and uranium
Berkeley Energia Ltd (BKLRF) - Spain, modest production
Bannerman Energy Ltd (BNNLF) - may be able to produce 8 million pounds/year
Consolidated Uranium (CURUF) - owner of property in Canada, Australia, Argentina, and the United States
Deep Yellow (DYLLF) - Namibia (good country for production), recent merger acquisition of Vimy Resources
Elevate Uranium (ELVUF) - Namibia and Australia (both good jurisdictions for Uranium production as a generalization)
enCore Energy Corp (EU.v) - United States
Fission (FCUUF)- Athabasca basin Canada, near Nexgen
Forsys Metals Corp (FOSYF) - Namibia. may be able to produce 5 million pounds/year
Goviex (GVXXF) - properties in Zambia, Niger, and Mali
IsoEnergy Ltd (ISO.V) - Athabasca basin, Canada
Laramide Resources Ltd (LMRSF) - Australia and United States
Lotus Resources (LTRSF) - African properties
People who have been watching Uranium stocks for a while know there are quite a few (dozens) more smaller explorer companies but I'm not sure how much use there is listing all of those (although I do hear a decent number of the Uranium Investor, Crux Investor, and Finding Value types mention companies like Baselode and 92 Energy).
The safest way to invest in the industry is to buy the URNM ETF. That might be the best answer. The Uranium Investor does offer stock picks and he sometimes encourages some option plays. My personal guess is some of the biggest and possibly relatively safe investments will be in the companies which have finished basic exploration and are in the development phase. In some parts of the world (e.g. Canada and the United States) you have stability but are unlikely to get to production in a typical boom cycle because it can take ten years to go from exploring to actual production due to the heavy regulatory burdens placed on producers. The last cycle's biggest winner was at least arguably Paladin Energy which was an African producer (run by the same management team that now runs Deep Yellow). That doesn't mean the same management will be able to repeat their last success - but it seems worth considering.
Anyway, I've written more than I intended but will read and respond to feedback that seems useful.
Pretty much the only game in town for an ETF in this industry. There is also the Global X Uranium ETF but it is only about 70% Uranium. The ETF does periodically readjust their holdings and you can investigate their investments: URNM
By investing in this ETF you are investing more than 10% in the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust. Thus, resulting in a "flywheel effect" in which buying the ETF results in the purchase of additional physical Uranium and further increases the spot price and removes more spot from the market (that other consumers can not buy instead of signing contracts to meet their ongoing consumption needs).
Big Producers: At least arguably there are only two "big" producers in the world: Kazatomprom and Cameco. Kazatomprom produces significantly more Uranium than Cameco. Kazatomprom is hampered by their location in Kazakhstan (which had an energy price related uprising earlier this year and threatened to stop the production at the world's #1 producer). Kazatomprom in the last Uranium bull cycle was also partially responsible for overproduction issues that flooded the worldwide markets. In more recent years their management have made many statements about a change in that philosophy RE: pricing and have shown relative discipline lately with production. In terms of price of the stock relative to pounds that will be produced (baring civil war) Kazatomprom is easily the best value. Cameco is in a stable location (Canada) but faces intermittent difficulties with mines flooding (stopping production), regulatory requirements of the Canadian government (okay for now but might be a challenge if they buy out another Canadian explorer or developer and have to get the mines permitted), and keeping the First Nation stakeholders satisfied (apparently okay right now).
There's obviously risk in investing in Kazatomprom especially if their country devolves into civil war but they also have enormous advantages when it comes to volume of production and the cheap costs of mining/extraction there compared to most everywhere else in the world. Cameco is also pretty much the center of production technology in the west as I understand it (which is not to say other companies don't have mills or technical ability - but in terms of current volume and perhaps expertise there's a gap as I understand it).
Medium Sized with Production:
Boss Energy (maybe belongs in this group)
CGN Mining Company (China General Nuclear Power Group)
Denison Mines
Energy Fuels (part of value from rare earths/vanadium)
Global Atomic (maybe, not producing yet)
Nexgen (maybe, still a couple years from production)
Slighty smaller market cap but have Uranium (no longer just explorers):
Alligator Energy (AGE) - several Australian Uranium projects
A-Cap Energy Limited (ACB) - uranium, nickel, and cobalt
Aura Energy (AUEEF) - vanadium and uranium
Berkeley Energia Ltd (BKLRF) - Spain, modest production
Bannerman Energy Ltd (BNNLF) - may be able to produce 8 million pounds/year
Consolidated Uranium (CURUF) - owner of property in Canada, Australia, Argentina, and the United States
Deep Yellow (DYLLF) - Namibia (good country for production), recent merger acquisition of Vimy Resources
Elevate Uranium (ELVUF) - Namibia and Australia (both good jurisdictions for Uranium production as a generalization)
enCore Energy Corp (EU.v) - United States
Fission (FCUUF)- Athabasca basin Canada, near Nexgen
Forsys Metals Corp (FOSYF) - Namibia. may be able to produce 5 million pounds/year
Goviex (GVXXF) - properties in Zambia, Niger, and Mali
IsoEnergy Ltd (ISO.V) - Athabasca basin, Canada
Laramide Resources Ltd (LMRSF) - Australia and United States
Lotus Resources (LTRSF) - African properties
People who have been watching Uranium stocks for a while know there are quite a few (dozens) more smaller explorer companies but I'm not sure how much use there is listing all of those (although I do hear a decent number of the Uranium Investor, Crux Investor, and Finding Value types mention companies like Baselode and 92 Energy).
The safest way to invest in the industry is to buy the URNM ETF. That might be the best answer. The Uranium Investor does offer stock picks and he sometimes encourages some option plays. My personal guess is some of the biggest and possibly relatively safe investments will be in the companies which have finished basic exploration and are in the development phase. In some parts of the world (e.g. Canada and the United States) you have stability but are unlikely to get to production in a typical boom cycle because it can take ten years to go from exploring to actual production due to the heavy regulatory burdens placed on producers. The last cycle's biggest winner was at least arguably Paladin Energy which was an African producer (run by the same management team that now runs Deep Yellow). That doesn't mean the same management will be able to repeat their last success - but it seems worth considering.
Anyway, I've written more than I intended but will read and respond to feedback that seems useful.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 11:06 am to molsusports
Thanks for all of that.
Any ideas on what’s causing todays sell off? Baby thrown out with the bath water or something endemic to uranium sector?
URNM down 7.5%, and specifically for me, Energy Fuels (UUUU) down 13%. Though UUUU may be down simply because I bought more last week on the recent decline
Any ideas on what’s causing todays sell off? Baby thrown out with the bath water or something endemic to uranium sector?
URNM down 7.5%, and specifically for me, Energy Fuels (UUUU) down 13%. Though UUUU may be down simply because I bought more last week on the recent decline
Posted on 5/9/22 at 11:28 am to DabosDynasty
quote:
Any ideas on what’s causing todays sell off?
I attribute it to the volatility of the sector. When the market goes up the Uranium sector will generally go up more. When the larger market goes down the Uranium sector goes down more.
It is distressing if you watch the dollar value day by day but a potential advantage if you buy in when it over corrects downward.
I think you can overlay the Dow versus URNM and see the pattern over the last eight months. Although IMO this pattern will break when something triggers a Uranium breakout.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 11:46 am to molsusports
Thanks. Sometimes just good to have reassurance/confirmation. Honestly I’ve been able to keep myself in check on the downside because I’m certain I don’t have near the sum invested as others ITT, but also I’m convinced of the investment thesis because quite frankly it’s simple. Math is math. There’s an easily identifiable shortage and easily identifiable catalyst to make it worse necessitating an upward price correction.
Probably buying more UUUU before close again to continue to lower avg cost.
Probably buying more UUUU before close again to continue to lower avg cost.
Posted on 5/9/22 at 12:17 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
Probably buying more UUUU before close again to continue to lower avg cost
What made you interested in UUUU? I own a little but would be interested in your thought process
Posted on 5/9/22 at 12:51 pm to molsusports
FWIW four of the Uranium stocks I think have the biggest upsides are essentially at six month lows:
Bannerman
Deep Yellow
Global Atomic
Goviex
I wish I had more ammunition right now
Bannerman
Deep Yellow
Global Atomic
Goviex
I wish I had more ammunition right now
This post was edited on 5/9/22 at 12:52 pm
Posted on 5/9/22 at 2:31 pm to molsusports
quote:
What made you interested in UUUU? I own a little but would be interested in your thought process
American based which gave me some degree of comfort over operational disruptions that happen with metals and resource miners in far flung areas like Africa etc.
Had significant (to me, non-professional) supply of uranium not tied to existing contracts locking them in to lower rates to potentially miss much of the upward price movement. To me it was the coiled snake waiting to strike at the right time, significantly higher spot prices as the shortage truly materializes in price. Have a good amount of cash and no debt to allow time for this to materialize.
At least some resource operations not in uranium to give some diversification.
Posted on 5/10/22 at 7:42 am to DabosDynasty
quote:
molsusports
I've been out of town for a few days so haven't been monitoring this thread but great overall summary. Now we just need to hold the hell on and ride this out.
The thesis that makes me sleep at night is the fact that miners need the price of uranium to be plus or minus $65/lb to incentivize mining (probably $70+ at this point with inflationary pressures).
And with that, mining uranium is highly regulated and doesn't happen with the flip of a switch. Barring a nuclear incident, this isn't an "if" but "when" trade in my opinion. My biggest mistake has been deploying too much capital... I got greedy and was scared I'd only be 50-60% allocated when the proverbial rocket launched on the Russia/Ukraine issues. If I had the cash I would be hammering 2024 calls within the near future. Either the U price goes up or the lights go out
Posted on 5/10/22 at 9:43 am to itsbigmikey
molsusports - really appreciate your insight.
I picked up more Denison and UUUU while they were on fire sale. Also jumped back in Global Atomic, I was in that one a few months back and did well but it didn't look as strong as other uranium options. At these prices though, I figure it's worth a small risk.
I picked up more Denison and UUUU while they were on fire sale. Also jumped back in Global Atomic, I was in that one a few months back and did well but it didn't look as strong as other uranium options. At these prices though, I figure it's worth a small risk.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 5:58 pm to Lightning
Posted on 5/11/22 at 6:13 pm to molsusports
Anyone a member and can share Justin’s picks??
Posted on 5/11/22 at 8:53 pm to Odinson
He will send you a sample newsletter (last month's) if you email him with the request.
His newsletters are well researched and he also provides people with recommendations for specific options plays to leverage investments he believes most strongly in. Especially if you do options that would make it worth the subscription.
Right now is a decent entry point to sprinkle in for a lot of the big names. I am no Justin but my personal top three would be:
Kazatomprom
Cameco
Nexgen
Those probably have to be in every Uranium investors' portfolio (if you own individual stocks). These three will each produce tens of millions of pounds annually for over a decade.
The following are more subjective but my bias for the next best because of their potential for leveraging stock growth (because they have Uranium and should reach production in this cycle):
Bannerman
Deep Yellow
Global Atomic
All (at least partially) African producers because the regulatory processes are more manageable than Canadian (although projects like Fission in Athabasca are probably bigger long term plays they likely won't reach production in this boom cycle).
Last boom the only company to advance from exploration to development and production in the cycle was Paladin (African company, run by the same management that runs Deep Yellow).
I would love to hear other people's arguments for their top six or so companies in the industry. There are also decent arguments for just investing in SPUT and URNM and avoiding the risks of stock picking
His newsletters are well researched and he also provides people with recommendations for specific options plays to leverage investments he believes most strongly in. Especially if you do options that would make it worth the subscription.
Right now is a decent entry point to sprinkle in for a lot of the big names. I am no Justin but my personal top three would be:
Kazatomprom
Cameco
Nexgen
Those probably have to be in every Uranium investors' portfolio (if you own individual stocks). These three will each produce tens of millions of pounds annually for over a decade.
The following are more subjective but my bias for the next best because of their potential for leveraging stock growth (because they have Uranium and should reach production in this cycle):
Bannerman
Deep Yellow
Global Atomic
All (at least partially) African producers because the regulatory processes are more manageable than Canadian (although projects like Fission in Athabasca are probably bigger long term plays they likely won't reach production in this boom cycle).
Last boom the only company to advance from exploration to development and production in the cycle was Paladin (African company, run by the same management that runs Deep Yellow).
I would love to hear other people's arguments for their top six or so companies in the industry. There are also decent arguments for just investing in SPUT and URNM and avoiding the risks of stock picking
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