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re: Trumps plan to defeat inflation - What do yall think?
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:25 pm to SDVTiger
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:25 pm to SDVTiger
quote:Nat gas is currently $2.25 and WTI is $67. That's pretty damned cheap - especially in a world we're there's been lots of inflation elsewhere. Heating oil is the same price it was in January 2018 - again, set to an overall inflationary backdrop.
energy is very very cheap rn.
Im sure it is in the weird place you live
You = low-information voter and poster.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 6:58 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Nat gas is currently $2.25 and WTI is $67.
Thats wonderful SDGE + FPLC keep raising the rates on me
So in the real world not the trailer parks energy isnt cheap
Posted on 9/11/24 at 7:25 pm to SDVTiger
quote:Interesting. So your new contention is that Americans that are relatively poorer have the lowest energy costs - and thus reduced exposure to inflation?
So in the real world not the trailer parks energy isnt cheap
Posted on 9/11/24 at 8:02 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Interesting. So your new contention is that Americans that are relatively poorer have the lowest energy costs - and thus reduced exposure to inflation?
No im talking about you specifically
Most ameeicans live in the real world
Posted on 9/12/24 at 8:14 am to SDVTiger
Go away. This board is not for you. The OT or wherever you normally post misses you.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 8:24 am to boomtown143
quote:
Trumps plan to defeat inflation - What do yall think?
I'm thinking "why didn't he try before?"
I ask, because it took 41 Presidents to get us to 10 Trillion in debt, and Trump added 8 Trillion in four years. Why the about face?
Posted on 9/12/24 at 10:30 am to OccamsStubble
We just spent 1.5 Trillion from March to July... Come on
Posted on 9/12/24 at 1:10 pm to mmmmmbeeer
quote:
Energy? We're in the best spot we've ever been in when it comes to energy production. Not to mention, I'm not sure if fricking nuclear reactors are the thing to "blast through every bureaucratic hurdle to issue rapid approvals" for...I mean, yikes
Georgia Power now has a few new reactors, but, as the article below states, they were 7 years late and $17 billion over budget. It was initially sold as a way to have cleaner energy at a lower price, but our bills have gone up a good bit this year to pay for this clusterfrick. The increase is supposed to relent in 2025, but I'll believe it when I see it.
I'm hopeful that bills eventually come down, but this was a complete mess that I hope any state or region takes a hard look at the lessons learned before they try to build more nuclear. And anyone that wants to lessen oversight for something like nuclear needs to get their head checked. It should be scrutinized to the nth degree due to the significant risk it can pose if things go wrong.
LINK
Posted on 9/12/24 at 2:57 pm to boomtown143
Sadly, most of this is DOA because even a Republican controlled Congress won't do what's best for us.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 3:39 pm to OccamsStubble
quote:quote:
Trumps plan to defeat inflation - What do yall think?
I'm thinking "why didn't he try before?"
I ask, because it took 41 Presidents to get us to 10 Trillion in debt, and Trump added 8 Trillion in four years. Why the about face?
It took Bush 8 years to push the debt up to $4T (creating $1.5T in total deficit spending), Barak Obama presided over the creation of $4T in deficit spending in just his first term.
Presidents have varying control over spending, being heavily dependent on having a friendly House or total Congress. Going back 30-ish years, both parties have been egregious in deficit spending but the Dems have been the most damaging. The GOP has held the House about 2x the time of the Dems yet the Dems have presided over ~2x the amount of deficit spending.
When comparing parties of Presidents and House control, we see that the trend for the lowest amount of deficit spending comes from a Democrat President and GOP House while a Dem Presidency and Dem House presides over the most (followed by a GOP President and Dem House).
We see that expressed during Trump's term with the following deficits by House control:
2017.......-665,450 (GOP House)
2018.......-779,074 (GOP House)
2019.......-983,588 (DEM House)
2020....-3,132,456 (DEM House)
As with other things fiscal and economic, COVID warped deficit spending. By creating so much inflation, it created the need for rates to be increased which made successive deficit spending cost even more. The projected deficit spending for all of FY2024 was supposed to be $1.8T but if the leaked numbers for last month's spending are correct then we're already at $1.5T.
No one gets re-elected by spending less money, we live in the Tytler quote:

So whether it be Trump, Harris or anyone else, in order to bring spending under control we will need enough balls in the White House and both chambers of Congress (meaning being willing to shut the federal government down nearly completely for as long as it takes) to push through actual spending cuts and the probability of that happening is ridiculously low.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 3:55 pm to Bard
Still don't like when you quote absolute dollars and not GDP-adjusted numbers.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 8:26 pm to boomtown143
Kamala’s plan is to give illegals free stuff and $25,000 for new homebuyers.
Posted on 9/13/24 at 7:21 am to Bard
quote:
Presidents have varying control over spending, being heavily dependent on having a friendly House or total Congress.
Cool. The one thing that DOESN'T change, no matter who is in charge, and of what branch of government, is the trend.
Mike Tyson could live for another 1000 years, and he would never utter a more sincere and impactful sentence as "everybody got a plan till they get hit in the mouth". Without a change in the TREND, it's just a matter of time until we get hit in the mouth, regardless who wins elections. Because, both parties agree on this issue - keep running up the debt until economic collapse.
Posted on 9/13/24 at 7:55 am to Bard
You bring good data to your posts. A consideration for this post would be circumstances of each period. Ukraine type conflicts, Covid, Recession type economy type factors weigh in.
One thing is sure; we spend more than we make!
One thing is sure; we spend more than we make!
Posted on 9/13/24 at 8:21 am to KWL85
quote:
You bring good data to your posts.
Thanks!


quote:
A consideration for this post would be circumstances of each period. Ukraine type conflicts, Covid, Recession type economy type factors weigh in.
Eh. Yes and no. There's always going to be some sort of "emergency event" government will use to justify continued debt creation as they muddy the waters between "need" vs "want". No one gets re-elected to a DC office for spending less money so trend of successive "needs" which are really more "wants" will continue until we hit a major economic hole (ie: another Great Depression).
Posted on 9/13/24 at 8:26 am to KWL85
quote:
You bring good data to your posts. A consideration for this post would be circumstances of each period. Ukraine type conflicts, Covid, Recession type economy type factors weigh in.
One thing is sure; we spend more than we make!
Another thing for sure: there will always be circumstances that are either real or manufactured that politicians use to justify printing money / giving it away / claiming how wonderful and giving they are for having done so. When you make those circumstances more important than spending what you revenue, then you continue toward economic collapse.
Maybe make that one thing, considering what it leads to, as Circumstance #1.
Posted on 9/13/24 at 10:04 am to OccamsStubble
quote:
The one thing that DOESN'T change, no matter who is in charge, and of what branch of government, is the trend.
Mike Tyson could live for another 1000 years, and he would never utter a more sincere and impactful sentence as "everybody got a plan till they get hit in the mouth". Without a change in the TREND, it's just a matter of time until we get hit in the mouth, regardless who wins elections. Because, both parties agree on this issue - keep running up the debt until economic collapse.
This is underappreciated. The current trend is irreversible. Yes, the govt wastes a lot of money on stupid shite but thinking Trump and Elon or whoever could get in there, slice and dice and make a real dent is a pipedream.
The reason is the big 3, entitlements, defense and interest have grown to such a ridiculous percentage of total spending. This was always going to happen. It has been baked into the cake since the New Deal and Great Society programs were launched.
Boomers retiring lights the fuse on the debt bomb and there's nothing anyone can do about it. They started retiring en masse during and after covid so here we are. No politician is going to advocate cutting entitlements or defense. The boomers are going to get theirs and it is going to blow the whole thing up. Go post on the poli board about cutting SS and see what sort of response you get, lol.
Let's say the pipedream happens, what does that look like? It looks like 30% cuts across the board to defense and entitlements tomorrow, permanently. Ok, do that, then what? Govt spending is 7% of gdp currently. Lop 30% off the two biggest line items and what happens? GDP growth is gone. We're in a severe recession, equities and R/E tank and along with it tax receipts because in a highly financialised economy like ours cap gains are the marginal driver of tax receipts. Govt spending spikes in a recession, receipts fall and boom, the deficit is blown out right back where it was when you started.
Nothing stops this train.
Posted on 9/13/24 at 10:39 am to Art Blakey
quote:
Let's say the pipedream happens, what does that look like? It looks like 30% cuts across the board to defense and entitlements tomorrow, permanently.
This needs to be quoted and repeated.
Going off last year's official budget, it would take a cut to total spending of ~28% just to balance last year's budget and it's nearly $1.7T deficit spending. This year we're looking at deficit spending of somewhere over $2T so FY2024 may well wind up needing over 30% just to balance (much less have a surplus with which to pay down the debt).
That's not a cut to just Section 8 or grants for studies on the effects of cocaine on crawfish (no, seriously), but to the pay of our military, the VA, members of Congress, the President, electricity bill payments for the National Mall, water bills for Yosemite National Park, etc. A 30% cut to every single thing the federal government spends money on, regardless of whether it's a necessity or not.
Which DC politicians will vote for such a cut? I'll list them below:
This post was edited on 9/13/24 at 10:40 am
Posted on 9/13/24 at 10:42 am to Art Blakey
quote:
Nothing stops this train.
Physics stops this train. Nothing stops physics.
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