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re: Time to go longer duration?
Posted on 10/30/23 at 2:56 pm to lynxcat
Posted on 10/30/23 at 2:56 pm to lynxcat
Buying TIPS. Currentl real yields are 2.5%, meaning they’ll beat inflation by that amount. If you think rates will stay up, then that’s the play. If you think we’re looking at 0%, then nominals are the way to go. I’m personally moving most of my bond allocation to TIPS.
ETA: building a 25 to 30 year ladder, there’s a gap in TIPS 2034-2039, so filling that on the long end.
ETA: building a 25 to 30 year ladder, there’s a gap in TIPS 2034-2039, so filling that on the long end.
This post was edited on 10/30/23 at 2:59 pm
1
Posted on 10/30/23 at 3:12 pm to Free888
You are smarter than just about every pension manager in the country. They’d all be set for the rest of their careers putting everything in TIPS right now.
Posted on 10/30/23 at 10:03 pm to wutangfinancial
Do we begin running into demand problems with the amount of bonds we’re having to sell/roll over? With the Fed trying to reduce their balance sheet, foreign countries reducing their Treasuries and continuing $T deficits when does the demand for T Bonds start to become a problem?
This post was edited on 10/30/23 at 10:11 pm
Posted on 10/30/23 at 10:07 pm to SquatchDawg
quote:Everyone is anxiously awaiting for the usually boring Treasury "quarterly refunding statement", as it's been hinted that there are some changes coming. My best guess is they are going to talk about moving away from being so front-loaded on the curve. It's utterly
Do we begin running into demand problems with the amount of bonds we’re having to sell/roll over? With deficits like this, the Fed trying to reduce their balance sheet, foreign countries reducing their Treasuries and continuing $T deficits when does the demand for T Bonds start to become a problem?
as many of us were screaming to issue 50-100 year bonds when that probably could have been done for 3% and under.
Posted on 10/31/23 at 8:06 pm to Big Scrub TX
I am grateful for their frick up. Compound interest is fun when it’s risk free.
Posted on 11/2/23 at 12:01 pm to lynxcat
Right now, firms I've been speaking with are operating a bar bell approach where they're seeing opportunities at both the short and long-end while remaining neutral on duration overall.
Going to wait a few months before adding duration by increasing exposure to EM sovereign credit and reducing EM corporate credit exposure.
Right now, there's lots of uncertainty where interest rates are going and I don't want to be caught out with high duration just in case.
Going to wait a few months before adding duration by increasing exposure to EM sovereign credit and reducing EM corporate credit exposure.
Right now, there's lots of uncertainty where interest rates are going and I don't want to be caught out with high duration just in case.
This post was edited on 11/2/23 at 12:06 pm
Posted on 11/2/23 at 5:12 pm to lynxcat
Fortunately I moved most of my stocks to TIPS before any of the haircuts occurred, so I was spared those losses.
I’m in TIPS, CD’s, and little cash in “high-yield” savings account.
I’m in TIPS, CD’s, and little cash in “high-yield” savings account.
Posted on 11/3/23 at 8:53 am to Warfox
With the jobs numbers this morning it seems Iike the chances of any further rate hikes are diminishing.
Also, help me understand the TIPs play. It seems like for us to get another inflation surge it would need to occur if the FED begins lowering rates again…which will probably only happen in the face of an economic downturn…which would be deflationary. What am I missing?
Also, help me understand the TIPs play. It seems like for us to get another inflation surge it would need to occur if the FED begins lowering rates again…which will probably only happen in the face of an economic downturn…which would be deflationary. What am I missing?
This post was edited on 11/3/23 at 9:00 am
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