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re: Stocks on your watch list

Posted on 7/27/21 at 3:01 pm to
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
48694 posts
Posted on 7/27/21 at 3:01 pm to
quote:

29.75% of the total market cap of the S&P 500 reports earnings tomorrow

HERE WE GO
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
48694 posts
Posted on 7/27/21 at 3:16 pm to
$GOOGL

* Sales $61.88B Beat $56.02B Estimate
* EPS $27.26 Beats $19.21 Estimate

also, frick you TDOC
Posted by MrJimBeam
Member since Apr 2009
13070 posts
Posted on 7/27/21 at 3:17 pm to
quote:

$GOOGL

* Sales $61.88B Beat $56.02B Estimate
* EPS $27.26 Beats $19.21 Estimate


Posted by LSUtoOmaha
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
26743 posts
Posted on 7/27/21 at 8:29 pm to
The google numbers are insanity
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
48694 posts
Posted on 7/28/21 at 7:42 am to
TDOC down 10% overnight
JFC
Posted by STLhog
Dallas, TX
Member since Jan 2015
19446 posts
Posted on 7/28/21 at 8:07 am to
quote:

TDOC down 10% overnight


The more and more I read, the more spot on Smackover's assessment seems to be.

With facetime, zoom and teams, why not just talk to your real doctor directly virtually? What is TDOCs play or advantage?
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
48694 posts
Posted on 7/28/21 at 8:10 am to
man i really don’t know.
Livongo was supposed to be my long term position and now I’m stuck

I might bail out before I go red on this turd
Posted by STLhog
Dallas, TX
Member since Jan 2015
19446 posts
Posted on 7/28/21 at 8:52 am to
The YoY sign up number was really, really weak.

Basically called by Smackover...

They had some revenue growth etc but that user penetration issue seems like a major issue as things keep opening up.
This post was edited on 7/28/21 at 8:53 am
Posted by SmackoverHawg
Member since Oct 2011
31587 posts
Posted on 7/28/21 at 9:02 am to
quote:

man i really don’t know.
Livongo was supposed to be my long term position and now I’m stuck

I might bail out before I go red on this turd


I got on them early, but dumped them quickly after being approached about helping them get more patients enrolled. Asked about role physicians were playing in their process. "you can buy stock" then help it by getting your patients to enroll. I had already bought some after a friend working for them told me about them. Thought they had some promise. Once it starting going nuts during COVID, I dumped that shite. Got a nice deep look at them and TDOC. Doesn't seem to be a good plan to offer anything that can't already be done by individual providers. We're hamstrung by insurance requirements and limitations and like I said. There are cheaper or free options to use for telemed that are more user friendly.

Not saying they can't or won't succeed. Lots of backroom shite goes down. Or they're going to have to change their whole approach.
Posted by SmackoverHawg
Member since Oct 2011
31587 posts
Posted on 7/28/21 at 9:16 am to
quote:

man i really don’t know.
Livongo was supposed to be my long term position and now I’m stuck

I might bail out before I go red on this turd



After approaching a few of these companies or being approached, I lost all hope for there to be a common sense integration. You want to compete with me on a level playing field? You can't. Oh well, moved on without them and now working with three of the largest defense contractors in the country to provide these services, primary care, urgent care, and industrial medicine with on site services and telemed. Would start locally where they are located with the two large ones that just merged. Around 2500-3000 locally. They understood what I was proposing. One is also self insured. They get to make the rules, insurers just administrate those rules. Would allow for telemed and other common sense services to be offered cheaply and in a mutually beneficial manner as well as allowing me to help oversee and coordinate their facilities nationwide.

Discussing same with 3 large chemical companies. We provide 90% of the services anyway and if they'll pool their resources instead of each doing their own thing, it lowers to capital investments, employees, and gives them more bargaining power with large insurers.

That's where it's going. Start with companies, them on board, then consolidate the "pods" where possible essentially health care co-ops. Telemed greatly assists in doing this as security is a big issue at all of these facilities. Already done on encrypted devices without TDOC and the others. Since insurance not involved, not bullshite to deal with. Just do what's efficient but still effective.
Posted by hiltacular
NYC
Member since Jan 2011
20200 posts
Posted on 7/28/21 at 9:38 am to
I actually was encouraged by a few things from the TDOC call. Gross margins are improving, pull out all of the costs from LVGO and earnings are much much better.

With that said, this stock is not doing anything until 22 at the absolute earliest when all of the m&a stuff has worked its way off the p&l. Will probably trade around $150 for the next year which is a good level for it.
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
48694 posts
Posted on 7/28/21 at 9:50 am to
quote:

I actually was encouraged by a few things from the TDOC call. Gross margins are improving, pull out all of the costs from LVGO and earnings are much much better.

yeah the call wasnt terrible and theres some encouraging signs, but the market seems to hate it, regardless

only TDOC can have a 50% drawdown in 6 months and THEN drop 10% after earnings...
Posted by SmackoverHawg
Member since Oct 2011
31587 posts
Posted on 7/28/21 at 9:52 am to
I think $150 and below is a fair valuation. They did increase their footprint and pt data with Livongo. And telemed will eventually be routine, but it's all going to decide when and how much insurers will pay for it. Many are offering it as a discounted service to their customers, as are self insured companies, but in my experiences pt's have been less than impressed. Others may have other experiences. If done correctly, you could access some of the best doctors nationwide conveniently. Not just for direct pt care, but consultation for physicians. Depending on how they adapt and change, they could flounder and fail or I can envision a scenario where they flourish. It just doesn't seem as if the business people "get" the business of medicine. 20 years ago everyone was saying Walmart was going to take over healthcare. Still waiting.

There will be someone step up and fill this gap. I just don't know who I'd bet on. That being said, if TDOC really tanks, I'll be picking some up.
Posted by SmackoverHawg
Member since Oct 2011
31587 posts
Posted on 7/28/21 at 9:55 am to
quote:

yeah the call wasnt terrible and theres some encouraging signs, but the market seems to hate it, regardless

only TDOC can have a 50% drawdown in 6 months and THEN drop 10% after earnings...


A lot of that is panic selling by those that got in high and thought it was going to the moon and their were going to take over healthcare immediately. They got a short term boost from COVID. They are much bettered positioned now than before COVID. Market overreaction. I can see them dropping back to or near pre-COVID prices. That's what I'm hoping for. And they're not that far away!
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
48694 posts
Posted on 7/28/21 at 9:55 am to
next support is 129 (52 week low BTW).
after that, its like 90...

if it goes green today i'm out
Posted by hiltacular
NYC
Member since Jan 2011
20200 posts
Posted on 7/28/21 at 9:59 am to
It's recovered a bit since the 10% tank which is encouraging. Definitely agree sentiment for it has been horrible since the LVGO acquisition. Anecdotally I am starting to see more positive comments which is typically a good indicator something has bottomed. 2020 are very tough comps, I think 2022 is the key year for earnings and where the growth will either pick back up or everyone will bail but obviously that is a ways off. Tough one to hold / keep significant capital in, I definitely agree. Telemed is still at the very early stages.

Full disclosure I sold off about half my position when it touched 300 so my exposure is much less than what it once was
This post was edited on 7/28/21 at 10:03 am
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
48694 posts
Posted on 7/28/21 at 10:25 am to
how much do you have left?
i'm down to 215 at 130

i sold off 2/3 of the position in the 170's, so theres that
Posted by hiltacular
NYC
Member since Jan 2011
20200 posts
Posted on 7/28/21 at 11:06 am to
I've got 92 shares left, I honestly am not even sure what my trade price is, thinkorswim has my price at $0 which is annoying.They do that any time there is a name change, acquisition, split etc haven't figured out a work around
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
48694 posts
Posted on 7/28/21 at 2:46 pm to
PINS reports tomorrow, after the bell
currently at minor resistance (77), gap available to high 80's (and all-time high) pending results

still think this is a 100 stock (will be VERY highly valued at that point, and perhaps a buyout target)
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
48694 posts
Posted on 7/28/21 at 5:06 pm to
quote:

JUST IN: SoftBank is selling a significant chunk of its Uber stake ?— 45 million shares ?— to cover for losses it has seen in its investment of Didi Global, sources tell CNBC

holy shite
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