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re: Spec Play - HGRAF

Posted on 12/2/25 at 10:59 am to
Posted by Jax-Tiger
Vero Beach, FL
Member since Jan 2005
26868 posts
Posted on 12/2/25 at 10:59 am to
quote:

Are chances pretty good for massive dillution on this? Thats what always seems to burn me


I don't think so. There could be some, but the up front costs are not that large, relatively speaking. With NBIS, the financing part of the equation is huge. They have to build billion dollar data centers in order to be profitable years down the road. With HGRAF, they will fill a huge warehouse with these Hyperion Units that cost $350,000 each, and produce 350 tons per year.

At a sales price of $400K per ton, they can become profitable very quickly, and scale up as the demand requires. They don't have to build a billion dollar factory and hope that someone comes along to buy their product.
Posted by FieldEngineer
Member since Jan 2015
2547 posts
Posted on 12/2/25 at 12:25 pm to
quote:

how much we gambling here?


I just bought 520 shares after reading a good portion of this thread.
Posted by Jax-Tiger
Vero Beach, FL
Member since Jan 2005
26868 posts
Posted on 12/2/25 at 1:07 pm to
quote:

Didn’t I read that it has to reach $4/share before it can be uplisted and that is targeted for first quarter 2026?

So, maybe by end of Summer 2026.


I believe this will reach $4 as soon as they get EPA approval. That is the barrier that is preventing this company from moving forward.
Posted by David_DJS
Member since Aug 2005
21768 posts
Posted on 12/2/25 at 1:17 pm to
quote:

they will fill a huge warehouse with these Hyperion Units that cost $350,000 each, and produce 350 tons per year.

Confirming how I read you post - that's 350 tpy per unit?
Posted by Jax-Tiger
Vero Beach, FL
Member since Jan 2005
26868 posts
Posted on 12/2/25 at 1:51 pm to
quote:

Confirming how I read you post - that's 350 tpy per unit?



I was quoting from memory, but I checked and the 350 tons is the production from 5 of the new larger Hyperion units. So the total cost to build would be 5 x $350K, or $1.75M. Still, very cost effective, given that the revenue on 350 tons is going to be around $140M.
Posted by David_DJS
Member since Aug 2005
21768 posts
Posted on 12/2/25 at 1:55 pm to
quote:

I was quoting from memory, but I checked and the 350 tons is the production from 5 of the new larger Hyperion units. So the total cost to build would be 5 x $350K, or $1.75M. Still, very cost effective, given that the revenue on 350 tons is going to be around $140M

Thanks for the info.

I was more looking at it from the angle of top line capability. What kind of revenue capacity this facility when built out would have.
Posted by Jax-Tiger
Vero Beach, FL
Member since Jan 2005
26868 posts
Posted on 12/2/25 at 2:03 pm to
quote:

I was more looking at it from the angle of top line capability. What kind of revenue capacity this facility when built out would have.


I wouldn't look at it that way. They Hyperion units are stand alone units that they can build as many as they need. I think they plan on building 5 in 2026, but could easily add more. That's the beauty of this synthetic graphene. They can build more if they need more without having to invest huge $$ into a new factory.

Whenever they get a new high volume customer, they will add enough hyperion units to service that client. At $350K each, they will pay for themselves in a few months.
Posted by David_DJS
Member since Aug 2005
21768 posts
Posted on 12/2/25 at 2:17 pm to
quote:

I wouldn't look at it that way. They Hyperion units are stand alone units that they can build as many as they need. I think they plan on building 5 in 2026, but could easily add more. That's the beauty of this synthetic graphene.

Makes sense.

quote:

Whenever they get a new high volume customer, they will add enough hyperion units to service that client. At $350K each, they will pay for themselves in a few months.

For $350K per copy, they'll stay a handful of units ahead of customers/demand.

I hope their patents are durable.
Posted by Jax-Tiger
Vero Beach, FL
Member since Jan 2005
26868 posts
Posted on 12/2/25 at 5:32 pm to
quote:

I hope their patents are durable.


That is a risk. That and someone will come up with another process to create synthetic graphene.

As I understand it, HGRAF not only has patents for the Hyperion units, but for many of the products that can be created with graphene.
Posted by Hangit
The Green Swamp
Member since Aug 2014
45295 posts
Posted on 12/2/25 at 8:07 pm to
quote:

I hope their patents are durable.


The Chinese have a proclivity to hack, then steal, everybody else's IP with nothing ever done about it.

I believe it has been mentioned that they will be VV open to setting up a Hyperion or two in the vicinity of a really big customer that has a want for mass amounts of graphene. No Hyperions will be for sale.
Posted by supadave3
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2005
31768 posts
Posted on 12/3/25 at 6:45 am to
Is there a way to check the status of the EPA request or even prove it was filed? Does the EPA provide an ETA or do we have to take the company’s word for it?
Posted by Jax-Tiger
Vero Beach, FL
Member since Jan 2005
26868 posts
Posted on 12/3/25 at 6:45 am to
quote:

it has been mentioned that they will be VV open to setting up a Hyperion or two in the vicinity of a really big customer that has a want for mass amounts of graphene.


How much of a benefit is this? Is it more difficult to transport the Acetylene gas, or the finished grraphene to the customer location?

One of the reasons for relocating is so they could pipe the gas in directly.
Posted by Longer Tail Tiger
Member since Dec 2019
301 posts
Posted on 12/3/25 at 10:15 am to
Article titled: "Google changed our screens. HydroGraph could change our structures." is linked below.
LINK
Posted by Jax-Tiger
Vero Beach, FL
Member since Jan 2005
26868 posts
Posted on 12/3/25 at 11:07 am to
Good article. This article helps explain why Kevin Bambreaux pushes this as a 1000 bagger. It has the potential if they can recruit customers who will use it in steel, concrete, tv screens, plastics, paint, lubricants, batteries, filters, electronics, etc...

I believe that is what HGRAF is doing right now - lining up customers for when they do get approval and have a manufacturing facility up and running. I think it's possible that we are not hearing any "news" because they know they have the customers - they need the product. When that happens, it will take off.

This is the best case scenario, of course, but I am not going to take profits until I see this thing play out. I don't want to take profits at $4 and then watch it shoot to the moon, afterwards.
Posted by supadave3
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2005
31768 posts
Posted on 12/3/25 at 12:05 pm to
quote:

I don't want to take profits at $4 and then watch it shoot to the moon, afterwards.


I’m going to take profits on 25%after if/when hits the Nastaq and we get that initial spike.

I got greedy on not taking profits from NBIS when I was at 120% growth and it really burns my arse.
Posted by NaturalBeam
Member since Sep 2007
14776 posts
Posted on 12/3/25 at 12:15 pm to
quote:

This is the best case scenario, of course, but I am not going to take profits until I see this thing play out. I don't want to take profits at $4 and then watch it shoot to the moon, afterwards.
Same. And this is a unique situation. I think there’s a good chance this is an all or nothing stock. So it doesn’t make much sense to me to take profits at $10, for example. If the fundamentals are there to make it $10, then the fundamentals are there to make it $100.

I think the greater likelihood is that this stock goes back under $1 or hits triple digits, rather than hang out somewhere in between.

Maybe I’m just wishcasting an early retirement though…
Posted by Longer Tail Tiger
Member since Dec 2019
301 posts
Posted on 12/3/25 at 1:38 pm to
In regard to obtaining EPA approval, per HGRAF's Management Discussion and Analysis, for the nine months ended June 30, 2025: "The Company is in communication with the EPA to ensure risks are mitigated and expects EPA clearance in the calendar year 2025 but cannot guarantee timing or quantify any potential financial impact of any EPA or other regulatory requirements.", as shown in the entire paragraph quoted below, which can be found on page 3 of the link below.

"The US Environmental Protection Agency (the “EPA”) requires all new chemicals to be reviewed and registered. There is special attention on chemicals that are nano size. The EPA reviews new chemicals
and nano size chemicals to ensure there is no impact on people and the environment. This is a requirement for all producers in the USA and for all graphene products used in the USA regardless of where the product
was produced. The Company is in communication with the EPA to ensure risks are mitigated and expects EPA clearance in calendar year 2025 but cannot guarantee timing or quantify any potential financial impact
of any EPA or other regulatory requirements. In September 2023, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (the “NIOSH”) conducted an audit of operating facilities. Their final report indicated that
HydroGraph’s production is well within safe operating parameters."
[Bolding added for emphasis]

LINK
Posted by supadave3
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2005
31768 posts
Posted on 12/3/25 at 1:55 pm to
quote:

expects EPA clearance in calendar year 2025



It would be a Christmas miracle. Do you believe in miracles???
Posted by Hangit
The Green Swamp
Member since Aug 2014
45295 posts
Posted on 12/3/25 at 2:02 pm to
quote:

Is there a way to check the status of the EPA request or even prove it was filed?


I don't know. The earliest article i have seen that says they have filed with the EPA is from 1-24. I have seen many people say they have emailed the Shareholder Relations guy, and he seems to always answer in a satisfactory way.
Posted by Hangit
The Green Swamp
Member since Aug 2014
45295 posts
Posted on 12/3/25 at 2:06 pm to
quote:

How much of a benefit is this?
If a customer has a quality want for 100 tons per year, I would say the benefit of being close is enormous.
quote:

Is it more difficult to transport the Acetylene gas, or the finished grraphene to the customer location?


I would guess if that 100-ton customer is in NY, it would be beneficial to set up in NJ, next to the acetylene plant and run a pipeline.

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