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Posted on 3/6/26 at 1:32 pm to Jax-Tiger
quote:
It's possible, but I just dont think its likely. They dont have room for that many units, for one, so they would need to get additional buildings and additional gas lines run.
They have spoken about being able to build 10 units at the same time and it takes two or three months to build them. At a rate of 10 every 2 months, they could build 60 in a year. Obviously, they would have to figure out how to increase that build rate.
Not taking issue with your post - the logic may be correct - but if what you’re describing reflects management’s actual posture, that would be a little concerning.
Most of us invested in HGRAF because we’ve been sold on two ideas: 1) demand for pure/specialty graphene will go from zero to 100 mph quickly, and 2) HGRAF is uniquely positioned to address burgeoning demand because it can produce the purity required for these value added apps and has the Hyperion manufacturing process.
If that investment thesis is credible, capacity planning should already reflect a company with (at least) a thousand tpa offtake. Waiting until contracts are signed to pull the trigger on (commercial quantity) capacity is not consistent with a company with a $2B market cap that just raised $25 million for a development phase.
In light of the above, my first question is how tried/true is the Hyperion process?
Posted on 3/6/26 at 2:02 pm to David_DJS
quote:
Most of us invested in HGRAF because we’ve been sold on two ideas: 1) demand for pure/specialty graphene will go from zero to 100 mph quickly, and 2) HGRAF is uniquely positioned to address burgeoning demand because it can produce the purity required for these value added apps and has the Hyperion manufacturing process.
I haven't bought it because of those two ideas.
1.) For the first point, we don't know what the demand is, or who is going to demand it. This is a new field. I bought on the idea that the DoW and DoE would be huge customers and that graphene would be huge in the area of plastics, concrete, steel, and electronics. But the demand for graphene in those area is almost ZERO right now, because there is no commercially viable graphene on the market. Will the demand materialize? It should, but it could take a while for people to figure out how to use it. I bought on the hope that it will, but I've said it before, I would like to see the price hit $20/share by the end of the year. I think that's fair. I bought in at $1, so that's a 20 bagger by the end of 2026, if we hit that. That's damn good.
2.) As far as we know, HGRAF is the purest graphene on the market and is cheap to produce. From all indications, the Hyperions work fine and the graphene is 99.8% pure. That's not the issue. The issue is, how much are people going to buy? Maybe the customers don't materialize for 5 years. Maybe it takes 5 years for the stock price to reach $100. Maybe that happens this year.
Look, this is a speculative stock. It is NOT a sure thing, otherwise, it wouldn't be trading for $6/share. It would already be trading for $100. The good news is that the Hyperion process has been approved and that changes the risk situation for the better.
This is a new company and they can't just contract out to build 1000 Hyperion machines. They have to hire and train people to use them. This isn't putting square pegs in square holes. These Hyperion machines use a highly flammable gas and there are a lot of risks. They have to take caution. They need logistics to classify, package, store, bill, and ship their product. This will all take time.
Does this mean it's going to take 5 years for the price to reach $100/share? It might. Even if it does, that's a helluva return. However, i think that the stock price is going to react to the backlog of orders. I think producing the graphene is something they can control. Having a backlog of demand for a product that you can conceivably make as much as you want, is a pretty damn good position to be in. If they get 10,000 tons worth of backlog by the end of this year, I suspect the price will hit $100 by then.
The other thing I wanted to say is that the management has always been cautious about not over promising. I think they are holding their cards close to the vest and taking the position of underpromising and over delivering. We've seen what the opposite can do to a stock price. It's Kevin Bambrough that's making wild claims about the stock price hitting $1000/share...
This post was edited on 3/6/26 at 2:05 pm
Posted on 3/6/26 at 2:10 pm to Jax-Tiger
quote:
The other thing I wanted to say is that the management has always been cautious about not over promising. I think they are holding their cards close to the vest and taking the position of under promising and over delivering. We've seen what the opposite can do to a stock price.
This is where I find the most comfort. They have a plan and are currently executing the plan. Listening to Kerry talk about the plan makes me excited for the future. Personally, I am in not rush on the stock price. Here to ride for triple or quad digits.
Posted on 3/6/26 at 2:31 pm to Jax-Tiger
I'm used to posting on the politics board where being confrontational is second nature, and want to be careful not to come across like that here - particularly in this thread where I've learned and made a lot. But this kind of discussion is healthy and interesting.
Out of curiosity, why are you invested in HGRAF if it's not because you see favorable the probability that demand for specialty graphene going from zero to 100 mph quickly and HGRAF's Hyperion technology?
My overriding point is - you know who is acting like the Hyperion process is still risky? HGRAF is. The TSCA certification is only about safety/environment.
Do you think this is even a possibility when HGRAF has 20 tpa capacity?
The one thing that can make the incongruity laid out above make sense is if there is a Yuge user that has indicated a willingness to put up/guarantee capital for large-scale manufacturing in exchange for special terms, and that deal is waiting for some milestones around Hyperion. Maybe that's a possibility?
quote:
I haven't bought it because of those two ideas.
Out of curiosity, why are you invested in HGRAF if it's not because you see favorable the probability that demand for specialty graphene going from zero to 100 mph quickly and HGRAF's Hyperion technology?
quote:
The good news is that the Hyperion process has been approved and that changes the risk situation for the better.
My overriding point is - you know who is acting like the Hyperion process is still risky? HGRAF is. The TSCA certification is only about safety/environment.
quote:
If they get 10,000 tons worth of backlog by the end of this year, I suspect the price will hit $100 by then.
Do you think this is even a possibility when HGRAF has 20 tpa capacity?
The one thing that can make the incongruity laid out above make sense is if there is a Yuge user that has indicated a willingness to put up/guarantee capital for large-scale manufacturing in exchange for special terms, and that deal is waiting for some milestones around Hyperion. Maybe that's a possibility?
Posted on 3/6/26 at 2:44 pm to masoncj
quote:
Kevin B is saying that shorters are out of powder
Posted on 3/6/26 at 2:51 pm to dkreller
First time ever I got a notice in Fidelity about lending shares and HGRAF was the one it listed. I declined.
Little stock is keeping me in the green overall today. Good work fella.
Little stock is keeping me in the green overall today. Good work fella.
Posted on 3/6/26 at 2:58 pm to SquatchDawg
quote:
First time ever I got a notice in Fidelity about lending shares and HGRAF was the one it listed. I declined. Little stock is keeping me in the green overall today. Good work fella.
I’m curious how this works bc I have schwab? So they would pay you a fee for borrowing your shares and then return them later to you? And this increases the chances of stock price going down?
Posted on 3/6/26 at 2:58 pm to David_DJS
quote:
Out of curiosity, why are you invested in HGRAF if it's not because you see favorable the probability that demand for specialty graphene going from zero to 100 mph quickly and HGRAF's Hyperion technology?
Oh, I believe in the technology. I just don't see it as a "get rich quick" scheme. I interpreted that the zero to 100 mph was that it would make everyone rich in a few months. I mean, it could, but I think it will take time, IMO. I look at it more as a gradual acceleration. I could be wrong and it will bust out overnight. The only scenario where I see that happening is if the US government decides to by billions worth of the stuff.
quote:
you know who is acting like the Hyperion process is still risky? HGRAF is.
And they should be. Under promise and over deliver. What happens to the stock price if they start saying they are going to have 20,000 tons of orders by the end of the year and 2,000 Hyperions in place, and they don't deliver that? They will get hammered and there will be huge pressure to dump the management team for someone who can execute better.
quote:
Do you think this is even a possibility when HGRAF has 20 tpa capacity?
Remote possibility. Can they fill 10,000 tons of orders? No. But they could have a backlog. Tesla could sign up for graphene for their 2030 Obsidian EV (hypothetical name) and if they order 5000 tons for 2028, other companies may want to jump in and get contracts in to save their spot in line or risk getting shut out for years.
If HGRAF can get future contracts, the price of the stock will skyrocket. Of course, HGRAF will have to execute on scaling up, which is also a difficult task.
Posted on 3/6/26 at 3:23 pm to Jax-Tiger
quote:
Oh, I believe in the technology. I just don't see it as a "get rich quick" scheme. I interpreted that the zero to 100 mph was that it would make everyone rich in a few months.
We're on the same page here. My "zero to 100 mph" wasn't to suggest 100 mph is reached in months. Things are relative. I should have used terminology like "rapid commercialization" or something like that.
quote:
And they should be. Under promise and over deliver. What happens to the stock price if they start saying they are going to have 20,000 tons of orders by the end of the year and 2,000 Hyperions in place, and they don't deliver that? They will get hammered and there will be huge pressure to dump the management team for someone who can execute better.
Here's where we disagree. And it's not about what they say or promise, but what they do. Given what we know about HGRAF's opportunity and Hyperion technology, their manufacturing plan as it's being executed today makes little sense. Perhaps, as you've pointed out they tend to do, they're holding something substantial close to the vest that'll make it make sense.
I will say what skepticism I've ever had about HGRAF relates to their management team and BOD. None of them have successful experience pulling off anything close to what many of us envisage for HGRAF. That's not a dealbreaker (I'm invested, too), but 10:1 when HGRAF gets out of the chute, there'll be greater horsepower onboard.
Posted on 3/6/26 at 3:39 pm to David_DJS
quote:
I will say what skepticism I've ever had about HGRAF relates to their management team and BOD. None of them have successful experience pulling off anything close to what many of us envisage for HGRAF. That's not a dealbreaker (I'm invested, too), but 10:1 when HGRAF gets out of the chute, there'll be greater horsepower onboard.
I too am concerned with the leadership, not that any of them have said anything to turn me off. They all seem genuine, knowledgeable and have a vision. But I also haven’t seen where they’ve managed a large production facility and operations. Also they haven’t announced a larger order of Hyperion units following the close of the offering.
I do believe in building things right and not putting the cart before the horses. As such I am good with modest goals and growth. Thus I will be measuring a lot of my confidence in the orders and the corresponding Hyperion counts. If I were in charge, we wouldn’t get over our skis, but we also wouldn’t let orders wait for our production to catch up.
You have EPA approval, you have funding. Let’s do this!
Posted on 3/6/26 at 4:05 pm to JperiodCperiod
quote:
I too am concerned with the leadership, not that any of them have said anything to turn me off. They all seem genuine, knowledgeable and have a vision. But I also haven’t seen where they’ve managed a large production facility and operations. Also they haven’t announced a larger order of Hyperion units following the close of the offering.
I have said the same in this thread. These guys are all experts in graphene and it's uses. They are NOT experts in scaling it up and running a production facility. They need to bring that expertise on board. If they get a large order and need more hyperions, I am sure they will bring the people on board. At this point in time, they are doing what they know, which is to show people how to use graphene.
Posted on 3/6/26 at 4:13 pm to David_DJS
quote:
Here's where we disagree. And it's not about what they say or promise, but what they do. Given what we know about HGRAF's opportunity and Hyperion technology, their manufacturing plan as it's being executed today makes little sense.
I don't think they plan to start building Hyperions to get ahead of production. Because the Hyperions can be build relatively cheaply and quickly, they are going to go at a modest rate, and increase the speed of their scale up as needed.
They are planning to keep their capex low by paying for additional Hyperions with the profits from the units that are already operational. If each Hyperion pays for itself within a couple of months, then they shouldn't have to dilute or overextend themselves on the financing. It's possible that this approach could cause a bottleneck because of the limited number of Hyperions they can build at one time. Fortunately, they have a monopoly on the fractal graphene, and customers may not have a choice but to wait.
Posted on 3/6/26 at 4:33 pm to David_DJS
quote:
Here's where we disagree. And it's not about what they say or promise, but what they do
I don’t get this take.
Why would you go into mass production of units without EPA approval? Or break ground on your production facility? What if the EPA drug this out 6 mths and your hands are tied?
Do you hire a bunch of production line workers and plant managers without production and a plant?
If you are a potential buyer are you putting money down without a guarantee the product can be produced at scale?
Right now their team consists of individuals with the connections you need to get to the table for potential deals and oeople with experience managing start ups. They don’t need manf expertise at this juncture.
This is a 2 to 5 year play. The action we’re seeing is interest in the potential and chance to get in at $5…..just like a lot of us did under $2 and the early ones under $1.
Anyone expecting an order for 100T of graphene just weeks after EPA approvals to produce and sell their product and before they’ve even broken ground is in for disappointment IMO.
Posted on 3/6/26 at 4:54 pm to SquatchDawg
Anyone know the actual closing price for today? Schwab has it 5.98, google 6.08, yahoo 6.03, market watch 6.01.
Posted on 3/6/26 at 5:03 pm to PeteRose
Fidelity says 6.08.
Posted on 3/6/26 at 5:17 pm to Jax-Tiger
quote:
If they don't get those big customers right away, I think this company will get bought out, IMO.
They are having us, the stockholders, vote later this month at their annual meeting. Basically, they want us to vote in a poison pill if someone tries a takeover. It is called shareholder rights. We all need to be sure and vote for it. IF somebody comes in and does a creeping buyout, we will get a pretty good premium for our shares.
PS: I did let their shareholder relations guy Matt, know that there is a college sports message board with a finance section. I told him a bunch of 'necks, mostly from Gulf Coast states, have bought a bunch of shares and discuss HGRAFT regularly. I told him where we could be found, but do not know if he has joined, lurked, or done nothing.
Posted on 3/6/26 at 5:19 pm to SquatchDawg
quote:
Right now their team consists of individuals with the connections you need to get to the table for potential deals and oeople with experience managing start ups.
Who has successful experience managing startups or new product development?
Posted on 3/6/26 at 5:34 pm to David_DJS
quote:
Who has successful experience managing startups or new product development?
Nobody. If they get a contract for 1000 tons of graphene, there will be a lot of top notch people who would love to come to work for a startup with this kind of potential.
They dont need that kind of expertise, yet. They are probably talking to the consulting firms who do have that expertise, though, and may lining people up...
Posted on 3/6/26 at 5:36 pm to Hangit
Does anyone know where I can get some apparel like this polo? I’m ready to shamelessly promote HG 24/7.
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