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re: So when are we buying airline stocks?
Posted on 3/5/20 at 11:48 am to DabosDynasty
Posted on 3/5/20 at 11:48 am to DabosDynasty
Updated to include Alaska and Spirit.
This post was edited on 3/5/20 at 11:51 am
0
Posted on 3/5/20 at 11:53 am to Bearded_Chow25
quote:To each his own.
Any thoughts on Alaska?
I don't see airlines turning until the CV story is done.
Posted on 3/5/20 at 11:59 am to DabosDynasty
quote:
Southwest just warned this could cost them up to $300 mill in Q1. These are the kinds of announcements I wanted to come through before opening a position. Interested in the same announcements from the other airlines.
This is why I'm waiting a little bit longer.
Posted on 3/5/20 at 12:08 pm to boomtown143
Agree. Waiting longer. With many company’s just recently (as in within the past day or two) banning nonessential travel this could get much worse for airlines over the next couple months. Hell, major hotels too. The buying time is mid April after earnings, unless C-19 proves to be worse than we thought.
Posted on 3/5/20 at 12:11 pm to skewbs
Any thoughts on casinos?
Lvs, Wynn and mgm
Lvs, Wynn and mgm
Posted on 3/5/20 at 12:19 pm to 632627
quote:
Any thoughts on casinos?
Lvs, Wynn and mgm
PENN...just bought barstool sports.
They are going to OWN online sports gambling
Posted on 3/5/20 at 12:28 pm to skewbs
Anyone with thoughts of this creating some degree of consolidation in the recovery as the more debt burdened airlines like AAL or smaller airlines really feel the cash crunch?
Posted on 3/5/20 at 12:34 pm to DabosDynasty
I don’t see the FTC allowing Delta or United to ‘buy’ or merge with American. I honestly don’t think you’ll see any M&A activity driven by the recent market situation unless you we are looking at prolonged recession and downward trend in capital markets closer to or longer than a year.... just take this off your mind.
Posted on 3/5/20 at 12:46 pm to 632627
quote:
Any thoughts on casinos?
What about Disney? They are approaching their 52-week low. Is this due to tourism drop-offs? I would be looking for them to shoot back up as well.
Posted on 3/5/20 at 12:49 pm to S1C EM
I’ve initiated a position on Disney and have bought 4 separate times in the last week or so.
They certainly aren’t going anywhere.
They certainly aren’t going anywhere.
Posted on 3/5/20 at 12:57 pm to S1C EM
quote:
What about Disney?
Watching Disney as well, but waiting to see just how bad earnings are. Park closures in Asia and potential closures domestically have to hurt. Combine that with the near impossible comparison to previous years revenues with record box office sales.
ETA: Also Iger stepping down
This post was edited on 3/5/20 at 12:58 pm
Posted on 3/5/20 at 1:03 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
So when are we buying airline stocks?
Never for me. I avoid them like the plague.
Posted on 3/5/20 at 1:06 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
waiting to see just how bad earnings are.
Isn't that a little ways off?
Posted on 3/5/20 at 1:12 pm to S1C EM
5/8 but IMO we’re just beginning the effects of the coronavirus hysteria domestically. Eventually we’ll have some “explosion” in new cases and I think that’s another hammer to the broader market and will lead to some closures. Quotations used because I believe the hype is largely media and not a good indicator of the reality of the virus, but the media has been driving the market.
Posted on 3/5/20 at 4:44 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
degree of consolidation
I think the only carrier that may get bought is Alaska and maybe by SWA. Alaska's domestic pattern fits theirs. The jet blue, frontier, spirit crowd are serving the same markets as the big 4 (delta,united,american and SW) with a crappier model. IMO
I don't see any of the big 4 merging/being bought. The justice dept/anti trust may have something to say about that.
Posted on 3/5/20 at 4:55 pm to DabosDynasty
Agreed... we’re not near bottom yet.. two weeks or so after it’s spread across the states.
Posted on 3/5/20 at 5:05 pm to cuyahoga tiger
quote:
jet blue, frontier, spirit crowd are serving the same markets as the big 4 (delta,united,american and SW) with a crappier model.
JetBlue is nothing like spirit, frontier or any other budget carrier.
I’d say they are most similar to Alaska.
Posted on 3/5/20 at 5:52 pm to cuyahoga tiger
quote:
I think the only carrier that may get bought is Alaska and maybe by SWA. Alaska's domestic pattern fits theirs. The jet blue, frontier, spirit crowd are serving the same markets as the big 4 (delta,united,american and SW) with a crappier model. IMO
I don't see any of the big 4 merging/being bought. The justice dept/anti trust may have something to say about that.
The main reason I mentioned American is because of the balance sheet. They’re very debt heavy as it is. I agree it’s not likely they’re absorbed by one of SW, United, or Delta, but I wonder if a strong smaller airline would be in a position for a merger. And then of course the smaller airlines could be susceptible to takeover by SW, Delta, or United. SW is in the best financial post job concerning debt so that would be my go to assumption for a buyer.
Posted on 3/5/20 at 5:52 pm to 632627
quote:
JetBlue is nothing like spirit, frontier or any other budget carrier
yeah, I could agree with that. But isn't the meat of their market the east cost/Boston to Miami? Just don't see the advantage for the Big 4 to acquire. Now an Alaskan/Jet Blue merge is an interesting thought.
Posted on 3/5/20 at 5:59 pm to cuyahoga tiger
This virus outbreak is just beginning folks, perception is reality. Do yourself a favor and keep your powder dry. Thank me later.
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